ATL: LISA - Remnants - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
AL, 95, 2022102900, , BEST, 0, 130N, 672W, 20, 1009, DB
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- johngaltfla
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Shockingly enough the GFS hasn't developed this into a Cat 5 hitting Miami (yet).
Hopefully it's just a TS, this has been a weird season and I think more fishes and named fizzles would be better.
Hopefully it's just a TS, this has been a weird season and I think more fishes and named fizzles would be better.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Intermittent towers now firing very high rain rates.
Looks like it's improving
Looks like it's improving
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Sure did lose a lot of convection last night. The Euro hasn't even iniated yet on the spaghetti model plots.
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Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Every time I open this site I'm confronted with the duality of S2K
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
8 AM TWO:
Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves slowly
westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves slowly
westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
weeniepatrol wrote:Every time I open this site I'm confronted with the duality of S2K
https://i.imgur.com/1tzfKwy.png
NHC went from yellow to orange on the 3-day. Think about that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Current GFS initialization shows a mismatch of surface winds and ASCAT data.
IMHO, not taking much faith how GFS is evolving this.
The only reliable and consistent forecast from GFS is the dissipation of the UL trough, north of Hispaniola, by Sunday.
This is confirmed by WV imagery currently showing convection well south of the island.
IMHO, not taking much faith how GFS is evolving this.
The only reliable and consistent forecast from GFS is the dissipation of the UL trough, north of Hispaniola, by Sunday.
This is confirmed by WV imagery currently showing convection well south of the island.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
GFS has a very strong ARWB anchored in the W Carib thru 11/3
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
AL, 95, 2022102912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 693W, 20, 1009, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Looks like an elongated circulation/wave axis. Still looks like the environment becomes more hostile by Monday/Tuesday, so its best short at becoming a TD or Lisa is the next 48 hrs. It’s 100% Central America-bound. No Gulf threat.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
HH found a solid wind change. Now will they call it a TD?
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Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Central Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Caribbean Sea.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the disturbance. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Caribbean Sea.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the disturbance. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
The latest update from the NHC seems to have more confidence in the general direction, removing the westward component from the previous update…
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Strange pattern being flown by the HH.
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Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Looks like we have a closed LLC. I suspect we'll have a depression by tomorrow and then a tropical storm...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
johngaltfla wrote:Shockingly enough the GFS hasn't developed this into a Cat 5 hitting Miami (yet).
Hopefully it's just a TS, this has been a weird season and I think more fishes and named fizzles would be better.
All the more reason to be concerned in S. Florida and the Keys j/k sort of. We are still dealing with flood damages from Ian in Key West, while we should be very safe from this one as per wxman57 but I do know strong November storms often surprise us and the water in the Keys is still plenty warm as is the GoM loop...further north fortunately has cooled of significantly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
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