ATL: LISA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2022102900, , BEST, 0, 130N, 672W, 20, 1009, DB

[johngaltfla]

Shockingly enough the GFS hasn't developed this into a Cat 5 hitting Miami (yet).

Hopefully it's just a TS, this has been a weird season and I think more fishes and named fizzles would be better.

[GCANE]

Intermittent towers now firing very high rain rates.
Looks like it's improving

[tropicwatch]

Sure did lose a lot of convection last night. The Euro hasn't even iniated yet on the spaghetti model plots.

[weeniepatrol]

Every time I open this site I'm confronted with the duality of S2K

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves slowly
westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[GCANE]

Every time I open this site I'm confronted with the duality of S2K

https://i.imgur.com/1tzfKwy.png

NHC went from yellow to orange on the 3-day. Think about that.

[GCANE]

Current GFS initialization shows a mismatch of surface winds and ASCAT data.
IMHO, not taking much faith how GFS is evolving this.
The only reliable and consistent forecast from GFS is the dissipation of the UL trough, north of Hispaniola, by Sunday.
This is confirmed by WV imagery currently showing convection well south of the island.

[GCANE]

GFS has a very strong ARWB anchored in the W Carib thru 11/3

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2022102912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 693W, 20, 1009, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Looks like an elongated circulation/wave axis. Still looks like the environment becomes more hostile by Monday/Tuesday, so its best short at becoming a TD or Lisa is the next 48 hrs. It’s 100% Central America-bound. No Gulf threat.

[Sciencerocks]

[tropicwatch]

HH found a solid wind change. Now will they call it a TD?

[cycloneye]

Central Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Caribbean Sea.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the disturbance. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[shansgonefishin]

The latest update from the NHC seems to have more confidence in the general direction, removing the westward component from the previous update…

[tropicwatch]

Strange pattern being flown by the HH.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like we have a closed LLC. I suspect we'll have a depression by tomorrow and then a tropical storm...

[Jr0d]

Shockingly enough the GFS hasn't developed this into a Cat 5 hitting Miami (yet).

Hopefully it's just a TS, this has been a weird season and I think more fishes and named fizzles would be better.

All the more reason to be concerned in S. Florida and the Keys j/k sort of. We are still dealing with flood damages from Ian in Key West, while we should be very safe from this one as per wxman57 but I do know strong November storms often surprise us and the water in the Keys is still plenty warm as is the GoM loop...further north fortunately has cooled of significantly.

[ChrisH-UK]

95L is showing as a broad circulation but no organization yet