ATL: LISA - Remnants - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:22 pm

AL, 95, 2022102900, , BEST, 0, 130N, 672W, 20, 1009, DB


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#22 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Oct 28, 2022 9:17 pm

Shockingly enough the GFS hasn't developed this into a Cat 5 hitting Miami (yet).

Hopefully it's just a TS, this has been a weird season and I think more fishes and named fizzles would be better.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#23 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 29, 2022 5:03 am

Intermittent towers now firing very high rain rates.
Looks like it's improving
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#24 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Oct 29, 2022 5:15 am

Sure did lose a lot of convection last night. The Euro hasn't even iniated yet on the spaghetti model plots.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#25 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Oct 29, 2022 5:23 am

Every time I open this site I'm confronted with the duality of S2K :lol:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 29, 2022 6:43 am

8 AM TWO:

Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves slowly
westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#27 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 29, 2022 7:16 am

weeniepatrol wrote:Every time I open this site I'm confronted with the duality of S2K :lol:

https://i.imgur.com/1tzfKwy.png


NHC went from yellow to orange on the 3-day. Think about that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#28 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 29, 2022 7:29 am

Current GFS initialization shows a mismatch of surface winds and ASCAT data.
IMHO, not taking much faith how GFS is evolving this.
The only reliable and consistent forecast from GFS is the dissipation of the UL trough, north of Hispaniola, by Sunday.
This is confirmed by WV imagery currently showing convection well south of the island.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#29 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 29, 2022 7:31 am

GFS has a very strong ARWB anchored in the W Carib thru 11/3
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 29, 2022 7:35 am

AL, 95, 2022102912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 693W, 20, 1009, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#31 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 29, 2022 7:49 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#32 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 29, 2022 8:41 am

Looks like an elongated circulation/wave axis. Still looks like the environment becomes more hostile by Monday/Tuesday, so its best short at becoming a TD or Lisa is the next 48 hrs. It’s 100% Central America-bound. No Gulf threat.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#33 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 29, 2022 12:14 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#34 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Oct 29, 2022 12:31 pm

HH found a solid wind change. Now will they call it a TD?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 29, 2022 12:47 pm

Central Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Caribbean Sea.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the disturbance. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#36 Postby shansgonefishin » Sat Oct 29, 2022 12:56 pm

The latest update from the NHC seems to have more confidence in the general direction, removing the westward component from the previous update…
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#37 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Oct 29, 2022 1:44 pm

Strange pattern being flown by the HH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#38 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 29, 2022 1:51 pm

Looks like we have a closed LLC. ;) I suspect we'll have a depression by tomorrow and then a tropical storm...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#39 Postby Jr0d » Sat Oct 29, 2022 2:20 pm

johngaltfla wrote:Shockingly enough the GFS hasn't developed this into a Cat 5 hitting Miami (yet).

Hopefully it's just a TS, this has been a weird season and I think more fishes and named fizzles would be better.


All the more reason to be concerned in S. Florida and the Keys j/k sort of. We are still dealing with flood damages from Ian in Key West, while we should be very safe from this one as per wxman57 but I do know strong November storms often surprise us and the water in the Keys is still plenty warm as is the GoM loop...further north fortunately has cooled of significantly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#40 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat Oct 29, 2022 2:55 pm

95L is showing as a broad circulation but no organization yet

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