Texas Fall 2022

[Iceresistance]

:spam:

https://i.ibb.co/bg45B69/gfs-asnow-scus-65-4.png

I have confirmed that this is mostly inflated from Sleet and it's in the fantasy range.

[cstrunk]

Definitely will take more rain but if the storm's could just hold off until 11 pm or so Friday night here in East Texas so I can enjoy my bird/hog hunt that would be greeeaaaaat.

[bubba hotep]

18z gfs looks quite favorable for severe weather Friday night. 500mb pattern shows the cutoff low tilting negative and strengthening as it transits into Texas. The resultant shear profiles, coupled with depicted cape of >1500j/kg looks like an all-hazards event across ntx to me.

The map below is based on the 18z gfs. Wonder if future runs will continue to show such a strong signal
[url]https://i.ibb.co/qp7fjHK/A4-C114-A2-B4-AE-49-CE-B064-9-DA9006-BBBA7.jpg [/url]
Edit, actually think it’s the 12z. Regardless, pretty colors, high chances, etc etc. Take with as few grains of salt as you would any individual gfs run

SPC agrees and has a pretty big D4 15%

[Iceresistance]

18z gfs looks quite favorable for severe weather Friday night. 500mb pattern shows the cutoff low tilting negative and strengthening as it transits into Texas. The resultant shear profiles, coupled with depicted cape of >1500j/kg looks like an all-hazards event across ntx to me.

The map below is based on the 18z gfs. Wonder if future runs will continue to show such a strong signal
[url]https://i.ibb.co/qp7fjHK/A4-C114-A2-B4-AE-49-CE-B064-9-DA9006-BBBA7.jpg [/url]
Edit, actually think it’s the 12z. Regardless, pretty colors, high chances, etc etc. Take with as few grains of salt as you would any individual gfs run

SPC agrees and has a pretty big D4 15%

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgezPa6WAAE0G5G?format=jpg&name=medium

Could be enough for an Enhanced risk for most of Oklahoma and into Northern and Central Texas.

[cheezyWXguy]

The map below is based on the 18z gfs. Wonder if future runs will continue to show such a strong signal
[url]https://i.ibb.co/qp7fjHK/A4-C114-A2-B4-AE-49-CE-B064-9-DA9006-BBBA7.jpg [/url]
Edit, actually think it’s the 12z. Regardless, pretty colors, high chances, etc etc. Take with as few grains of salt as you would any individual gfs run

SPC agrees and has a pretty big D4 15%

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgezPa6WAAE0G5G?format=jpg&name=medium

Could be enough for an Enhanced risk for most of Oklahoma and into Northern and Central Texas.

I think there’s a decent chance someone ends up in an enhanced risk. How large an area, or if there are higher risk levels, will depend on how the system transits. 18z gfs was the peak so far of severe potential, with the cutoff turning negative. Subsequent runs have gotten a little bit faster and more neutral, which would likely limit discrete cells and push the line through earlier.

However, the nam is getting into range and has more consistently shown a transit similar to the 18z gfs.

[bubba hotep]

WPC going with another multi-inch event for North Texas, however, this time the highest totals will be focused northward into OK/KS.

[Iceresistance]

SE Texas is getting drenched on radar right now.

[bubba hotep]

SE Texas is getting drenched on radar right now.

Looks like the same old story for SA, decent totals out west of them in the Big Bend and then decent totals to the south and east of them. SA can't catch a break.

[Edwards Limestone]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1587465572647698434

[Edwards Limestone]

SE Texas is getting drenched on radar right now.

Looks like the same old story for SA, decent totals out west of them in the Big Bend and then decent totals to the south and east of them. SA can't catch a break.

We got 0.02" at the airport last night...lol.

[South Texas Storms]

SE Texas is getting drenched on radar right now.

Looks like the same old story for SA, decent totals out west of them in the Big Bend and then decent totals to the south and east of them. SA can't catch a break.

We got 0.02" at the airport last night...lol.

How is it possible to miss the heavier totals on every rain event in a year? It's pretty unbelievable how it keeps happening...

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like the same old story for SA, decent totals out west of them in the Big Bend and then decent totals to the south and east of them. SA can't catch a break.

We got 0.02" at the airport last night...lol.

How is it possible to miss the heavier totals on every rain event in a year? It's pretty unbelievable how it keeps happening...

I don't get it either.

[dpep4]

Whoa, it's a total mystery why Beaumont and Houston have gotten more rain than San Antonio.

[Edwards Limestone]

Whoa, it's a total mystery why Beaumont and Houston have gotten more rain than San Antonio.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIVnIMHXcAA4TVj.jpg

Great, now explain this

[bubba hotep]

Whoa, it's a total mystery why Beaumont and Houston have gotten more rain than San Antonio.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIVnIMHXcAA4TVj.jpg

Such an odd troll.

[bubba hotep]

[Brent]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022110118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_47.png

That long range GFS keeps trying to be interesting

[Cpv17]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022110118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_47.png

That long range GFS keeps trying to be interesting

The CPC seems to think most of the cold will stay up north and the south and east will stay above normal.

[bubba hotep]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022110118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_47.png

That long range GFS keeps trying to be interesting

That's how they always start!

[Brent]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022110118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_47.png

That long range GFS keeps trying to be interesting

The CPC seems to think most of the cold will stay up north and the south and east will stay above normal.

The apps do get colder here after day 7 so we'll see. I always take the end of the GFS as fantasy but to see it trying to consistently show something is interesting anyway