Texas Fall 2022

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#701 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:45 am



I have confirmed that this is mostly inflated from Sleet and it's in the fantasy range.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#702 Postby cstrunk » Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:02 am

Definitely will take more rain but if the storm's could just hold off until 11 pm or so Friday night here in East Texas so I can enjoy my bird/hog hunt that would be greeeaaaaat. :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#703 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:31 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:18z gfs looks quite favorable for severe weather Friday night. 500mb pattern shows the cutoff low tilting negative and strengthening as it transits into Texas. The resultant shear profiles, coupled with depicted cape of >1500j/kg looks like an all-hazards event across ntx to me.

The map below is based on the 18z gfs. Wonder if future runs will continue to show such a strong signal
[url]https://i.ibb.co/qp7fjHK/A4-C114-A2-B4-AE-49-CE-B064-9-DA9006-BBBA7.jpg [/url]
Edit, actually think it’s the 12z. Regardless, pretty colors, high chances, etc etc. Take with as few grains of salt as you would any individual gfs run


SPC agrees and has a pretty big D4 15%

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#704 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:12 am

bubba hotep wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:18z gfs looks quite favorable for severe weather Friday night. 500mb pattern shows the cutoff low tilting negative and strengthening as it transits into Texas. The resultant shear profiles, coupled with depicted cape of >1500j/kg looks like an all-hazards event across ntx to me.

The map below is based on the 18z gfs. Wonder if future runs will continue to show such a strong signal
[url]https://i.ibb.co/qp7fjHK/A4-C114-A2-B4-AE-49-CE-B064-9-DA9006-BBBA7.jpg [/url]
Edit, actually think it’s the 12z. Regardless, pretty colors, high chances, etc etc. Take with as few grains of salt as you would any individual gfs run


SPC agrees and has a pretty big D4 15%

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgezPa6WAAE0G5G?format=jpg&name=medium

Could be enough for an Enhanced risk for most of Oklahoma and into Northern and Central Texas.
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#705 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:55 am

Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:The map below is based on the 18z gfs. Wonder if future runs will continue to show such a strong signal
[url]https://i.ibb.co/qp7fjHK/A4-C114-A2-B4-AE-49-CE-B064-9-DA9006-BBBA7.jpg [/url]
Edit, actually think it’s the 12z. Regardless, pretty colors, high chances, etc etc. Take with as few grains of salt as you would any individual gfs run


SPC agrees and has a pretty big D4 15%

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgezPa6WAAE0G5G?format=jpg&name=medium

Could be enough for an Enhanced risk for most of Oklahoma and into Northern and Central Texas.

I think there’s a decent chance someone ends up in an enhanced risk. How large an area, or if there are higher risk levels, will depend on how the system transits. 18z gfs was the peak so far of severe potential, with the cutoff turning negative. Subsequent runs have gotten a little bit faster and more neutral, which would likely limit discrete cells and push the line through earlier.

However, the nam is getting into range and has more consistently shown a transit similar to the 18z gfs.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#706 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:30 am

WPC going with another multi-inch event for North Texas, however, this time the highest totals will be focused northward into OK/KS.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#707 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:34 am

SE Texas is getting drenched on radar right now.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#708 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:59 am

Iceresistance wrote:SE Texas is getting drenched on radar right now.


Looks like the same old story for SA, decent totals out west of them in the Big Bend and then decent totals to the south and east of them. SA can't catch a break.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#709 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Nov 01, 2022 11:02 am

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#710 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Nov 01, 2022 11:03 am

bubba hotep wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:SE Texas is getting drenched on radar right now.


Looks like the same old story for SA, decent totals out west of them in the Big Bend and then decent totals to the south and east of them. SA can't catch a break.


We got 0.02" at the airport last night...lol. :spam:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#711 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Nov 01, 2022 3:26 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:SE Texas is getting drenched on radar right now.


Looks like the same old story for SA, decent totals out west of them in the Big Bend and then decent totals to the south and east of them. SA can't catch a break.


We got 0.02" at the airport last night...lol. :spam:


How is it possible to miss the heavier totals on every rain event in a year? It's pretty unbelievable how it keeps happening...
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#712 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 3:48 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Looks like the same old story for SA, decent totals out west of them in the Big Bend and then decent totals to the south and east of them. SA can't catch a break.


We got 0.02" at the airport last night...lol. :spam:


How is it possible to miss the heavier totals on every rain event in a year? It's pretty unbelievable how it keeps happening...


I don't get it either.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#713 Postby dpep4 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 4:37 pm

Whoa, it's a total mystery why Beaumont and Houston have gotten more rain than San Antonio.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#714 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:05 pm

dpep4 wrote:Whoa, it's a total mystery why Beaumont and Houston have gotten more rain than San Antonio.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIVnIMHXcAA4TVj.jpg


Great, now explain this

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#715 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:13 pm

dpep4 wrote:Whoa, it's a total mystery why Beaumont and Houston have gotten more rain than San Antonio.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIVnIMHXcAA4TVj.jpg


Such an odd troll.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#716 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:13 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#717 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:07 pm



That long range GFS keeps trying to be interesting
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#718 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:15 pm

Brent wrote:


That long range GFS keeps trying to be interesting


The CPC seems to think most of the cold will stay up north and the south and east will stay above normal.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#719 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:17 pm

Brent wrote:


That long range GFS keeps trying to be interesting


That's how they always start!
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#720 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:53 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:


That long range GFS keeps trying to be interesting


The CPC seems to think most of the cold will stay up north and the south and east will stay above normal.


The apps do get colder here after day 7 so we'll see. I always take the end of the GFS as fantasy but to see it trying to consistently show something is interesting anyway
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