ATL: NICOLE - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
MetroMike wrote:Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/yx8jGJc1/015-B0-D02-59-A9-4-E5-D-A44-E-54-E9-A6-E749-FE.jpg [/url]
12z ICON… Another SW shift with Cat 1 into Port St. Lucie..
ICON model is not really held in high regard and not used by the NHC for forecasting.
If I remember correctly, ICON did well with Ian.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
12z HWRF… Landfall @Stuart heading W through the Peninsula… Cat 1 hurricane… It wouldn’t surprise me if S shifts happen…
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
12Z Euro 48 almost identical to 6Z Euro 54 and is 1 mb stronger (1003 mb).
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Nov 06, 2022 1:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
12Z Euro 72 is just a tad NW of the 6Z Euro 78 and again at 1001 mb.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
12Z Euro landfalls at 96 near Stuart at 998 mb. Almost identical to 12Z UKMET on timing and location.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Nov 06, 2022 1:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/BQprvJkW/hwrf-mslp-wind-98-L-fh0-96.gif [/url]
12z HWRF… Landfall @Stuart heading W through the Peninsula… Cat 1 hurricane… It wouldn’t surprise me if S shifts happen…
Me too BA. Synoptics are pretty well set with this one with huge low level and midlevel high anchored over the SW Atlantic ridging southwest into the SE US. Forward speed and storm strength will probably be the only variables affecting its track into the peninsula. Think because of that, this system track wise will be easier for the models to sort out than Ian, especially within that 48-72 hour window.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
12z Euro.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
GFS & HWRF are likely too strong. I don't think this will be tropical at landfall. I have it as a subtropical storm with TS winds extending out nearly 350 miles north and northeast of the center when it reaches FL Wednesday night. May have some 50kt winds over water north and northeast of the center. Transitions to fully ET as it tracks northeastward up the east coast on Saturday, moving at 35-40 mph.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Something odd I've noticed between the GFS and Euro is that Euro generally seems to have more dry air enter the low's core which seems to keep it weaker, whereas GFS has the storm blanket itself in humidity allowing it to intensify quickly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
That HWRF run makes it look like metro dade and broward would get absolutely nothing, while a couple of miles north would be battered with rain and wind.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
chris_fit wrote:00z Euro shifts to the right. Rides up near East FL.
12Z?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
South shift in 12z GEFS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
jfk08c wrote:chris_fit wrote:00z Euro shifts to the right. Rides up near East FL.
12Z?
Yup, my bad
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
It did, so did the ukmetMichele B wrote:MetroMike wrote:Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/yx8jGJc1/015-B0-D02-59-A9-4-E5-D-A44-E-54-E9-A6-E749-FE.jpg [/url]
12z ICON… Another SW shift with Cat 1 into Port St. Lucie..
ICON model is not really held in high regard and not used by the NHC for forecasting.
If I remember correctly, ICON did well with Ian.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
EPS is south of the OPS.
Loop
Loop
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
chris_fit wrote:jfk08c wrote:chris_fit wrote:00z Euro shifts to the right. Rides up near East FL.
12Z?
Yup, my bad
Actually no. Those were the 24 hr plots. It actually moves w-nw to Tampa Bay from Stuart and then pivots N-NE to JAX.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Based on the GFS, this does not become fully tropical until Wednesday morning, showing the 'core' separate from the rest of the system based on their simulated IR satellite. The CMC's simulated IR does not look tropical until Thursday. Both show an eye forming.
In my opinion, if this can become fully tropical, it will have a window to strengthen to a hurricane.
I do think the SW dive that all the modems are picking up on is a big factor, the further south it goes the stronger this can get.
In my opinion, if this can become fully tropical, it will have a window to strengthen to a hurricane.
I do think the SW dive that all the modems are picking up on is a big factor, the further south it goes the stronger this can get.
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