ATL: NICOLE - Models

[SFLcane]

Oooof!

Lights out west palm beach

[Michele B]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/yx8jGJc1/015-B0-D02-59-A9-4-E5-D-A44-E-54-E9-A6-E749-FE.jpg [/url]

12z ICON… Another SW shift with Cat 1 into Port St. Lucie..

ICON model is not really held in high regard and not used by the NHC for forecasting.

If I remember correctly, ICON did well with Ian.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF… Landfall @Stuart heading W through the Peninsula… Cat 1 hurricane… It wouldn’t surprise me if S shifts happen…

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 48 almost identical to 6Z Euro 54 and is 1 mb stronger (1003 mb).

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 72 is just a tad NW of the 6Z Euro 78 and again at 1001 mb.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro landfalls at 96 near Stuart at 998 mb. Almost identical to 12Z UKMET on timing and location.

[ronjon]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/BQprvJkW/hwrf-mslp-wind-98-L-fh0-96.gif [/url]
12z HWRF… Landfall @Stuart heading W through the Peninsula… Cat 1 hurricane… It wouldn’t surprise me if S shifts happen…

Me too BA. Synoptics are pretty well set with this one with huge low level and midlevel high anchored over the SW Atlantic ridging southwest into the SE US. Forward speed and storm strength will probably be the only variables affecting its track into the peninsula. Think because of that, this system track wise will be easier for the models to sort out than Ian, especially within that 48-72 hour window.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro.

[wxman57]

GFS & HWRF are likely too strong. I don't think this will be tropical at landfall. I have it as a subtropical storm with TS winds extending out nearly 350 miles north and northeast of the center when it reaches FL Wednesday night. May have some 50kt winds over water north and northeast of the center. Transitions to fully ET as it tracks northeastward up the east coast on Saturday, moving at 35-40 mph.

[chris_fit]

00z Euro shifts to the right. Rides up near East FL.

[ThunderForce]

Something odd I've noticed between the GFS and Euro is that Euro generally seems to have more dry air enter the low's core which seems to keep it weaker, whereas GFS has the storm blanket itself in humidity allowing it to intensify quickly.

[AutoPenalti]

That HWRF run makes it look like metro dade and broward would get absolutely nothing, while a couple of miles north would be battered with rain and wind.

[jfk08c]

00z Euro shifts to the right. Rides up near East FL.

12Z?

[blp]

South shift in 12z GEFS

[chris_fit]

00z Euro shifts to the right. Rides up near East FL.

12Z?

Yup, my bad

[jlauderdal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/yx8jGJc1/015-B0-D02-59-A9-4-E5-D-A44-E-54-E9-A6-E749-FE.jpg [/url]

12z ICON… Another SW shift with Cat 1 into Port St. Lucie..

ICON model is not really held in high regard and not used by the NHC for forecasting.

If I remember correctly, ICON did well with Ian.

It did, so did the ukmet

[blp]

EPS is south of the OPS.



Loop

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1589344158904242176

[ronjon]

00z Euro shifts to the right. Rides up near East FL.

12Z?

Yup, my bad

Actually no. Those were the 24 hr plots. It actually moves w-nw to Tampa Bay from Stuart and then pivots N-NE to JAX.

[Jr0d]

Based on the GFS, this does not become fully tropical until Wednesday morning, showing the 'core' separate from the rest of the system based on their simulated IR satellite. The CMC's simulated IR does not look tropical until Thursday. Both show an eye forming.

In my opinion, if this can become fully tropical, it will have a window to strengthen to a hurricane.

I do think the SW dive that all the modems are picking up on is a big factor, the further south it goes the stronger this can get.