#208 Postby typhoonty » Sun Nov 06, 2022 9:49 pm
With the pressure gradient in place, 98L won't have to do much to achieve hurricane intensity in the north quadrant. For that reason, I think a hurricane peak is likely over the gulf stream sometime Wednesday. The winds will be higher than expected for a large storm with a pressure in the 990s. There probably won't be wind gusts much above 40 in the southwest quadrant over land. Southwest quadrants for E-W moving storms often get too aggressively forecasted and hyped in Florida.
I will be looking for a baroclinically enhanced area of precipitation in the northwest quadrant as 98L slows and starts to turn north in the wake of the cold front. May be surprisingly rough in the NW quadrant and I think for areas west of I-95 this will be the most dangerous impact as the area is still completely waterlogged because of Ian.
Really hoping the COC exits north of Sarasota, it will not take much in terms of wind driven rain to produce some damage for open construction for Fort Myers. We don't need anymore inclement weather.
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FSU Meteorology student, opinions are mine, 20 years experience covering TC's, consult NHC/Local officials when making decisions.
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