ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

In my personal opinion, the G-IV mission should be moved up to tomorrow. While the track forecast has fairly decent confidence, we need to know how conducive the environment is for strengthening and if the front is playing any role.

When is it currently scheduled for?

[Blown Away]

@24.5N/67W… Appears the COC is starting to pull together slowly and building convection while moving @NW…

[Coolcruiseman]

And now it's a waiting game sprinkled with curiosity of what to expect in the Melbourne area with the TVCN line currently showing a landfall just to the south.

[johngaltfla]

What’s the hold up for PTC advisory? Nobody is preparing here in Palm Beach.

I read some snowbirds were flocking to Publix, but this is nothing natives & naturalized Floridians can’t handle.

And just when I told my family that I am going to put up the gennie and drain the gas...ugh. But we good, we're natives so whatever.

[Blown Away]

And now it's a waiting game sprinkled with curiosity of what to expect in the Melbourne area with the TVCN line currently showing a landfall just to the south.

I’d say at least strong TS to Cat 1.

[Blown Away]

Convection starting to pop around the broad COC.

[cycloneye]

Historic perspective.

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1589418639345995779

[typhoonty]

With the pressure gradient in place, 98L won't have to do much to achieve hurricane intensity in the north quadrant. For that reason, I think a hurricane peak is likely over the gulf stream sometime Wednesday. The winds will be higher than expected for a large storm with a pressure in the 990s. There probably won't be wind gusts much above 40 in the southwest quadrant over land. Southwest quadrants for E-W moving storms often get too aggressively forecasted and hyped in Florida.

I will be looking for a baroclinically enhanced area of precipitation in the northwest quadrant as 98L slows and starts to turn north in the wake of the cold front. May be surprisingly rough in the NW quadrant and I think for areas west of I-95 this will be the most dangerous impact as the area is still completely waterlogged because of Ian.

Really hoping the COC exits north of Sarasota, it will not take much in terms of wind driven rain to produce some damage for open construction for Fort Myers. We don't need anymore inclement weather.

[chaser1]

Well, assuming no initial PTC Advisory coming this evening...... I'm still a bit surprised that NHC would not at least put out a "Special Tropical Disturbance Bulletin" discussing near term potential advisories and increased threat analysis. This would probably drive a bit more public awareness then their standard TWO's.

[Hammy]

Well, assuming no initial PTC Advisory coming this evening...... I'm still a bit surprised that NHC would not at least put out a "Special Tropical Disturbance Bulletin" discussing near term potential advisories and increased threat analysis. This would probably drive a bit more public awareness then their standard TWO's.

Models show tropical storm conditions are beyond the 48h mark even for the Bahamas, so more than likely the plan the whole time was see how things are in the morning and issue the watches then. I'll be surprised if there's still nothing by midday.

[Hurricane Mike]

Here's a late night video on our system for those interested
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRs52NfRfAA

[chaser1]

Well, assuming no initial PTC Advisory coming this evening...... I'm still a bit surprised that NHC would not at least put out a "Special Tropical Disturbance Bulletin" discussing near term potential advisories and increased threat analysis. This would probably drive a bit more public awareness then their standard TWO's.

Models show tropical storm conditions are beyond the 48h mark even for the Bahamas, so more than likely the plan the whole time was see how things are in the morning and issue the watches then. I'll be surprised if there's still nothing by midday.

Certainly true if looking at this as a truly warm core system with strongest winds around center. I would have thought that the tightened gradient in advance of the storm's arrival would alone suggest certain coastal and offshore water watches/warnings for Tuesday night

[CrazyC83]

The time change does mean the advisories will come out one hour earlier (local time) than we are used to. That means the next TWO will be at 1 am, not 2 am.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

Southwestern Atlantic:
Recent satellite-derived wind data and reports from a NOAA buoy
indicate that the center of a low pressure system located more than
300 miles northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is becoming better
defined, and the system is producing an area of gale-force winds
well to the east of its center. In addition, the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development, and a subtropical or tropical storm is
expected to form later today or tonight while moving slowly
northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. The system is then
forecast to turn westward and west-southwestward on Tuesday and
Wednesday, approaching and moving near the northwestern Bahamas and
the east coast of Florida, where additional development is possible.

Regardless of development, the risk continues to increase for a
prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds,
heavy rainfall, rough surf and rip currents, and beach erosion along
the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during much of the
upcoming week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas later
today. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service and in products from your local weather office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Blown Away]

I wonder what the NWS Melbourne thinks as landfall point & intensity??

[cane5]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

Southwestern Atlantic:
Recent satellite-derived wind data and reports from a NOAA buoy
indicate that the center of a low pressure system located more than
300 miles northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is becoming better
defined, and the system is producing an area of gale-force winds
well to the east of its center. In addition, the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development, and a subtropical or tropical storm is
expected to form later today or tonight while moving slowly
northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. The system is then
forecast to turn westward and west-southwestward on Tuesday and
Wednesday, approaching and moving near the northwestern Bahamas and
the east coast of Florida, where additional development is possible.

Regardless of development, the risk continues to increase for a
prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds,
heavy rainfall, rough surf and rip currents, and beach erosion along
the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during much of the
upcoming week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas later
today. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service and in products from your local weather office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/zFJhfYu.jpg

Key word in the statement was ‘ prolonged ‘ don’t like that word when it comes to any kind of storm

[AJC3]

I wonder what the NWS Melbourne thinks as landfall point & intensity??

LOL.. We've been trying to focus on having people NOT pay attention to the exact track(s) shown by model guidance, and will continue that advice once official forecasts start being issued. TS force, or near TS force winds and their associated effects are going to be felt far and wide (our entire CWA and beyond, especially along/near the coast), regardless of whether it's a TC or STC. As far as specifics like intensity/wind speeds, rainfall amounts, height of surge, surf and waves, we're starting to toss our best deterministic guesses out there in our products, but of course, they're subject to change. My message SUN morning was that everyone along the FL east coast should at the very least make preparations for a moderate to strong TS making landfall near their location.

[Blown Away]

I wonder what the NWS Melbourne thinks as landfall point & intensity??

LOL.. We've been trying to focus on having people NOT pay attention to the exact track(s) shown by model guidance, and will continue that advice once official forecasts start being issued. TS force, or near TS force winds and their associated effects are going to be felt far and wide (our entire CWA and beyond, especially along/near the coast), regardless of whether it's a TC or STC. As far as specifics like intensity/wind speeds, rainfall amounts, height of surge, surf and waves, we're starting to toss our best deterministic guesses out there in our products, but of course, they're subject to change. My message SUN morning was that everyone along the FL east coast should at the very least make preparations for a moderate to strong TS making landfall near their location.

00z suite seems to be leaning PBC to S as COC landfall. Clearly 98L will be heavy on the N side of circulation, how if any will the tight pressure gradient N of the storm enhance surface winds??

[Blown Away]

COC @24.5N/67.5W… Making the NW turn…

[AJC3]

I wonder what the NWS Melbourne thinks as landfall point & intensity??

LOL.. We've been trying to focus on having people NOT pay attention to the exact track(s) shown by model guidance, and will continue that advice once official forecasts start being issued. TS force, or near TS force winds and their associated effects are going to be felt far and wide (our entire CWA and beyond, especially along/near the coast), regardless of whether it's a TC or STC. As far as specifics like intensity/wind speeds, rainfall amounts, height of surge, surf and waves, we're starting to toss our best deterministic guesses out there in our products, but of course, they're subject to change. My message SUN morning was that everyone along the FL east coast should at the very least make preparations for a moderate to strong TS making landfall near their location.

00z suite seems to be leaning PBC to S as COC landfall. Clearly 98L will be heavy on the N side of circulation, how if any will the tight pressure gradient N of the storm enhance surface winds??

That will happens to some degree regardless of the intensity of the circulation, but will be limited by the radius of maximum winds (RMW) of the northern quadrants (NW-NE). Outside the RMW, the effects lessen with increasing distance, eventually becoming negligible.