ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Eye drop is slightly north of forecast track.
Nicole is forecast to make a bend to the west today.

[NDG]

This maybe more a disaster for New England / Upper East Coast than for FL.

How?
It should be an extra-tropical system by the time it gets up there.

It think is nonsense to say that. IMO.

Euro has it at 985mb in New England
991mb in FL

Obviously the Euro is wrong with its forecast for FL, a pressure way down into the 980s if not 970s mb when it makes landfall over FL is now not out of the question if current trends continue.

[GCANE]

Radar soundings showing a nicely developed warm core but no cold-anomaly boundary layer.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

Not yet pulling heat out of the ocean.

[GCANE]

How?
It should be an extra-tropical system by the time it gets up there.

It think is nonsense to say that. IMO.

Euro has it at 985mb in New England
991mb in FL

Obviously the Euro is wrong with its forecast for FL, a pressure way down into the 980s if not 970s mb when it makes landfall over FL is now not out of the question if current trends continue.

I am thinking more a difference it what the Euro itself is showing - relative strengthens.
Basically, Euro is saying it will be stronger in New England than FL.

[fsucory08]

Yesterday's 11am update showed Nicole at 27.7N and 71.9W and if i'm looking at recon correctly it just found Nicole's center at 27.65N and 71.95W.

[GCANE]

Some convection bubbling up SW of the CoC.
May get a full wrap of convection during the day today.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50 mph at 7 AM EST advisory.

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 72.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

[BobHarlem]

Pressure is already lower than the Euro has for this and it's lower than any of the models had it right now, almost sure some hurricane warnings go up around 10am, probably Indian River/Brevard/Volusia/Flagler.

[GCANE]

Wind field has tightened up quite a bit

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 0_swhr.gif

[NDG]

Euro has it at 985mb in New England
991mb in FL

Obviously the Euro is wrong with its forecast for FL, a pressure way down into the 980s if not 970s mb when it makes landfall over FL is now not out of the question if current trends continue.

I am thinking more a difference it what the Euro itself is showing - relative strengthens.
Basically, Euro is saying it will be stronger in New England than FL.

Pressure in the 980s mb will be nothing more than the typical extra-tropical system passing through the NE US this time of the year, especially if it stays inland like the same Euro shows, not so say that there could be some severe wx associated as it merges with the strong cold front and strong storms form along the front.

[toad strangler]

More north the track now near Melbourne.

https://i.imgur.com/FfgBWZx.jpg

Weird how the NHC's track is so far north of the GFS and Euro, I guess they are splitting the difference between them and the UKMET which is way north in New Smyrna Beach, the TVCN is north of Melbourne.

I knew somehow the SFL shield would hold up. It’s really unbelievable to see every time. We should see minimal impacts here down here.

I'm liking the trends even up in Saint Lucie County. If I had my druthers, I would be S of the center. But, we shall see.

[GCANE]

28.1N 72.1W
Short-duration, high-helicity hot tower.
Likely, starting to pull heat out of the ocean now.

[eastcoastFL]

Weird how the NHC's track is so far north of the GFS and Euro, I guess they are splitting the difference between them and the UKMET which is way north in New Smyrna Beach, the TVCN is north of Melbourne.

I knew somehow the SFL shield would hold up. It’s really unbelievable to see every time. We should see minimal impacts here down here.

I'm liking the trends even up in Saint Lucie County. If I had my druthers, I would be S of the center. But, we shall see.

Me too. South of center is looking like the place to be.

[eastcoastFL]

She’s getting a lot more impressive by the hour

[eastcoastFL]

[GCANE]

SREF is starting to hone in on the tornado threat.
Looks to be Daytona Beach to Brunswick.

[GCANE]

New eye drop 98% RH @ 850mb
All cylinders starting to fire
Chalk it up to the hot tower

[kevin]

Good morning Nicole. Already looks like a nasty storm. I hope people don't underestimate it just because it's November. This season ain't over yet.

[xironman]

This maybe more a disaster for New England / Upper East Coast than for FL.

Each run of Euro has the Great Lakes low moving more east.
Nicole and the low may phase.
Storm-of-the-century scenario?

GFS is the only model that has a negative tilt to the trough, and even then it only arrives when former Nichole is in Newfoundland.

[eastcoastFL]

New eye drop 98% RH @ 850mb
All cylinders starting to fire
Chalk it up to the hot tower

That moisture is really starting to fan out around the system. I wonder if it will fill in more on the south side as it develops a tropical core. So far everything is consolidated to the north of the storm.