ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
Eye drop is slightly north of forecast track.
Nicole is forecast to make a bend to the west today.
Nicole is forecast to make a bend to the west today.
0 likes
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
GCANE wrote:NDG wrote:GCANE wrote:This maybe more a disaster for New England / Upper East Coast than for FL.
How?
It should be an extra-tropical system by the time it gets up there.
It think is nonsense to say that. IMO.
Euro has it at 985mb in New England
991mb in FL
Obviously the Euro is wrong with its forecast for FL, a pressure way down into the 980s if not 970s mb when it makes landfall over FL is now not out of the question if current trends continue.
2 likes
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
Radar soundings showing a nicely developed warm core but no cold-anomaly boundary layer.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif
Not yet pulling heat out of the ocean.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif
Not yet pulling heat out of the ocean.
0 likes
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:GCANE wrote:NDG wrote:
How?
It should be an extra-tropical system by the time it gets up there.
It think is nonsense to say that. IMO.
Euro has it at 985mb in New England
991mb in FL
Obviously the Euro is wrong with its forecast for FL, a pressure way down into the 980s if not 970s mb when it makes landfall over FL is now not out of the question if current trends continue.
I am thinking more a difference it what the Euro itself is showing - relative strengthens.
Basically, Euro is saying it will be stronger in New England than FL.
0 likes
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
Yesterday's 11am update showed Nicole at 27.7N and 71.9W and if i'm looking at recon correctly it just found Nicole's center at 27.65N and 71.95W.
1 likes
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
Some convection bubbling up SW of the CoC.
May get a full wrap of convection during the day today.
May get a full wrap of convection during the day today.
1 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145322
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
Up to 50 mph at 7 AM EST advisory.
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022
...NICOLE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 72.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
Subtropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022
...NICOLE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 72.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
Pressure is already lower than the Euro has for this and it's lower than any of the models had it right now, almost sure some hurricane warnings go up around 10am, probably Indian River/Brevard/Volusia/Flagler.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
GCANE wrote:NDG wrote:GCANE wrote:
Euro has it at 985mb in New England
991mb in FL
Obviously the Euro is wrong with its forecast for FL, a pressure way down into the 980s if not 970s mb when it makes landfall over FL is now not out of the question if current trends continue.
I am thinking more a difference it what the Euro itself is showing - relative strengthens.
Basically, Euro is saying it will be stronger in New England than FL.
Pressure in the 980s mb will be nothing more than the typical extra-tropical system passing through the NE US this time of the year, especially if it stays inland like the same Euro shows, not so say that there could be some severe wx associated as it merges with the strong cold front and strong storms form along the front.
Last edited by NDG on Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4543
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:NDG wrote:
Weird how the NHC's track is so far north of the GFS and Euro, I guess they are splitting the difference between them and the UKMET which is way north in New Smyrna Beach, the TVCN is north of Melbourne.
I knew somehow the SFL shield would hold up. It’s really unbelievable to see every time. We should see minimal impacts here down here.
I'm liking the trends even up in Saint Lucie County. If I had my druthers, I would be S of the center. But, we shall see.
1 likes
My Weather Station
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
28.1N 72.1W
Short-duration, high-helicity hot tower.
Likely, starting to pull heat out of the ocean now.
Short-duration, high-helicity hot tower.
Likely, starting to pull heat out of the ocean now.
1 likes
- eastcoastFL
- Category 5
- Posts: 3901
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
- Location: Palm City, FL
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:NDG wrote:
Weird how the NHC's track is so far north of the GFS and Euro, I guess they are splitting the difference between them and the UKMET which is way north in New Smyrna Beach, the TVCN is north of Melbourne.
I knew somehow the SFL shield would hold up. It’s really unbelievable to see every time. We should see minimal impacts here down here.
I'm liking the trends even up in Saint Lucie County. If I had my druthers, I would be S of the center. But, we shall see.
Me too. South of center is looking like the place to be.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- eastcoastFL
- Category 5
- Posts: 3901
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
- Location: Palm City, FL
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
She’s getting a lot more impressive by the hour


2 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- eastcoastFL
- Category 5
- Posts: 3901
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
- Location: Palm City, FL
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
SREF is starting to hone in on the tornado threat.
Looks to be Daytona Beach to Brunswick.
Looks to be Daytona Beach to Brunswick.
2 likes
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
New eye drop 98% RH @ 850mb
All cylinders starting to fire
Chalk it up to the hot tower
All cylinders starting to fire
Chalk it up to the hot tower
3 likes
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
Good morning Nicole. Already looks like a nasty storm. I hope people don't underestimate it just because it's November. This season ain't over yet.


Last edited by kevin on Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
3 likes
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
GCANE wrote:GCANE wrote:This maybe more a disaster for New England / Upper East Coast than for FL.
Each run of Euro has the Great Lakes low moving more east.
Nicole and the low may phase.
Storm-of-the-century scenario?
GFS is the only model that has a negative tilt to the trough, and even then it only arrives when former Nichole is in Newfoundland.
0 likes
- eastcoastFL
- Category 5
- Posts: 3901
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
- Location: Palm City, FL
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion
GCANE wrote:New eye drop 98% RH @ 850mb
All cylinders starting to fire
Chalk it up to the hot tower
That moisture is really starting to fan out around the system. I wonder if it will fill in more on the south side as it develops a tropical core. So far everything is consolidated to the north of the storm.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests