ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nuno]

Still not buying that expected wsw movement. Looks like either due west or WNW to landfall.

It's generally heading 245-250 right now as per recon.

[stormhunter7]

Clearly sucked in some mid-level dry air today. Will see how the core responds over next several hours.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL172022/AirMass/20223121410-20223121940-GOES16-ABI-AL172022-AirMass-1000x1000.gif

[Gums]

Salute!

The lat/long from NHC shows slightly north of Palm Beach for landfall of the eye, so strongest winds would be up near Lucie or Vero. My oldest son is at 26.6 north and looks like 27.x for landfall, so he is almost in the crosshairs at Lake Clark Shores/West Palm. However, I would not trust those coords until the thing crosses 79 long with a steady track of 270.

The rule most of we folks on Baja Alabama, aks redneck riviera aka Panhandle is to get propane, poptarts and beer early. The poptarts keep forever and do not need refridgeration nor even heating to consume the suckers. The grandchildren like them, too. If you have gas versus a heat pump you are even in great shape for long power outages. One good thing this time is temperatures should be fairly tolerable when the HVAC goes out.

Gums sends...

[cane5]

No chance to read any posts since Sunday. I have a couple of observations. First, I could find a record of only one other November hurricane strike in Florida. That was in 1935. It made landfall in Miami then dissipated in the eastern Gulf.

Second observation is the amount of cool, dry air flowing southward along the east coast. Dew point in the mid 30s along the SC coast, lower 40s offshore Georgia, and now down to 53 in Jacksonville. Nicole may peak in the next 24 hours and begin ingesting this dry air prior to landfall, leading to weakening. This is the reason models indicate so little rain over Florida. Bad news if you were planning to go to Disney World Thursday. Disney is closing some parts now, but I expect a full closure coming for Thursday. They may get low-end TS winds with gusts in the 60s Thursday.

http://wxman57.com/images/november.JPG

Any thoughts on this slight southerly shift ?

[Category5Kaiju]

Clearly sucked in some mid-level dry air today. Will see how the core responds over next several hours.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL172022/AirMass/20223121410-20223121940-GOES16-ABI-AL172022-AirMass-1000x1000.gif

The storm has been performing quite well compared to initial expectations, so I honestly don't think that that will be a big detriment in the long run.

[aspen]

AF306 has been sitting on the runaway for nearly an hour according to Tropical Tidbits. It’s the same plane that never took off this morning, and I’m guessing it’s been grounded by technical issues AGAIN. Are there seriously no other working low-level planes they can send out instead of this one?

It feels like this year has had even more recon issues than 2020 or 2021, despite the lack of anything like Eta. So many flights have had comms issues or flight-stopping technical errors.

AF plane is on route so now have 2 planes.

I misread the NOAA plane as an UL mission so I thought AF306 was going to be the only lower level flight for this part of the evening. Nice to see we’ll have concurrent recon flights.

[cheezyWXguy]

The core is starting to saturate again

[Mouton]

At 4PM winds 25 gusting to 33 at Fernandina Airport on Amelia Island in extreme NE Florida. They have been steadily increasing all day.

Got to hand it to Bastardi, he took his clue for this storm off Kate in 85. It does not look as though it will get as far into the GOM, if at all, as Kate did but that one did get to a cat 3.
Bastardi was touting a possible cat 2. Looking at the sea surface temps over at Tropical Tidbits, it appears that west of the gulf stream they drop off quite a bit. So while the storm may be winding up across it, it would seem it would not be getting stronger right at land fall. However, it will not be a declining storm which would be better news. Nicole has large wind field with the accompanying northeast flow from the pressure gradient. So the greater wind impacts will be on the northside of the storm IMO. More importantly, coastal flooding should be an issue not to be dismissed. Someone noted the potential for 10 feet of surge in Mayport. That could be a disaster there.

I was sure I would not be putting up shutters, but I will be reevaluating that decision at 7AM tomorrow! Got the yard cleaned out of anything that might fly and set up the camping cooking stove for the probable power outages.

Be alert
Vince

[hiflyer]

AF306 has been sitting on the runaway for nearly an hour according to Tropical Tidbits. It’s the same plane that never took off this morning, and I’m guessing it’s been grounded by technical issues AGAIN. Are there seriously no other working low-level planes they can send out instead of this one?

It feels like this year has had even more recon issues than 2020 or 2021, despite the lack of anything like Eta. So many flights have had comms issues or flight-stopping technical errors.

AF306 up from Gulfport an hour ago and heading to join the P3 and the G4 from Lakeland already in the storm.

[hiflyer]

AF306 has been sitting on the runaway for nearly an hour according to Tropical Tidbits. It’s the same plane that never took off this morning, and I’m guessing it’s been grounded by technical issues AGAIN. Are there seriously no other working low-level planes they can send out instead of this one?

It feels like this year has had even more recon issues than 2020 or 2021, despite the lack of anything like Eta. So many flights have had comms issues or flight-stopping technical errors.

AF306 up from Gulfport an hour ago and heading to join the P3 and the G4 from Lakeland already in the storm.

[Poonwalker]

Clearly sucked in some mid-level dry air today. Will see how the core responds over next several hours.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL172022/AirMass/20223121410-20223121940-GOES16-ABI-AL172022-AirMass-1000x1000.gif

The storm has been performing quite well compared to initial expectations, so I honestly don't think that that will be a big detriment in the long run.

the fact it even has a structure is a feat in itself considering that dry air mass. Very impressive. Looks to be persistently building it's east wall right now. Could be a really big storm in 24 hours.

[Pelicane]

980 extrapolated

[aspen]

Extrapolated pressure from NOAA3 is all the way down to 980.2mb.

[weeniepatrol]

bruh

[Emmett_Brown]

The models will definitely have to play catchup to the actual pressure.

[sponger]

980 extrapolated

Someone should tell the models!

[Pelicane]

Extrapolated pressure from NOAA3 is all the way down to 980.2mb.

Waiting for dropsonde because extrapolated pressures are usually biased too low but it's likely sub 985 mb atm.

[eastcoastFL]

Clearly sucked in some mid-level dry air today. Will see how the core responds over next several hours.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL172022/AirMass/20223121410-20223121940-GOES16-ABI-AL172022-AirMass-1000x1000.gif

The storm has been performing quite well compared to initial expectations, so I honestly don't think that that will be a big detriment in the long run.

I think the presence of dry air is why they've kept max intensity at 75mph.

[AutoPenalti]

jesus christ what…

[cycloneye]

bruh

https://i.imgur.com/TQmcK5w.png

Also has lost latitude from the advisory that was at 27.5N.