ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

WESH and WFTV (Orlando stations) “in house” models showing landfall closer to Brevard. It’s worth noting their models sniffed out Ian’s progress before the models even with the track across the state south of what was forecasted.

I doubt any TV station is running "in-house" models..

Marketing 101. It doesn’t have to be real, just believable!

Pressure in my back yard down to 1002.4 in St. Lucie West

[StormingB81]

WESH and WFTV (Orlando stations) “in house” models showing landfall closer to Brevard. It’s worth noting their models sniffed out Ian’s progress before the models even with the track across the state south of what was forecasted.

I doubt any TV station is running "in-house" models. With a storm that has such a large area of TS winds, the exact landfall point is less important. Any hurricane force winds may cover only a few square miles out over the water. Expect some strong tropical storm-force winds north of where the center reaches the coast. Beyond then, all that cool, dry air over Florida now will be flowing into Nicole, knocking its core down fairly quickly. Not a big rain producer. I see the latest EC forecasting only 2-3 inches across the eastern half of the Peninsula. This is no Ian. It'll be all gone by Friday afternoon. So ends the season (I hope).

They have been. They always do. They even said “this is our in-house model” they’ve been showing it the last few days. Like I said it was great in Ian, it was great in Irma which showed pretty much exactly what it did days before. I understand what you’re saying but they are using them.

[Cat5James]

WESH and WFTV (Orlando stations) “in house” models showing landfall closer to Brevard. It’s worth noting their models sniffed out Ian’s progress before the models even with the track across the state south of what was forecasted.

I doubt any TV station is running "in-house" models. With a storm that has such a large area of TS winds, the exact landfall point is less important. Any hurricane force winds may cover only a few square miles out over the water. Expect some strong tropical storm-force winds north of where the center reaches the coast. Beyond then, all that cool, dry air over Florida now will be flowing into Nicole, knocking its core down fairly quickly. Not a big rain producer. I see the latest EC forecasting only 2-3 inches across the eastern half of the Peninsula. This is no Ian. It'll be all gone by Friday afternoon. So ends the season (I hope).

They have been. They always do. They even said “this is our in-house model” they’ve been showing it the last few days. Like I said it was great in Ian, it was great in Irma which showed pretty much exactly what it did days before. I understand what you’re saying but they are using them.

Nicole would have to take a sharp NW turn now to land close to Brevard

[CronkPSU]

WESH and WFTV (Orlando stations) “in house” models showing landfall closer to Brevard. It’s worth noting their models sniffed out Ian’s progress before the models even with the track across the state south of what was forecasted.

I doubt any TV station is running "in-house" models. With a storm that has such a large area of TS winds, the exact landfall point is less important. Any hurricane force winds may cover only a few square miles out over the water. Expect some strong tropical storm-force winds north of where the center reaches the coast. Beyond then, all that cool, dry air over Florida now will be flowing into Nicole, knocking its core down fairly quickly. Not a big rain producer. I see the latest EC forecasting only 2-3 inches across the eastern half of the Peninsula. This is no Ian. It'll be all gone by Friday afternoon. So ends the season (I hope).

They have been. They always do. They even said “this is our in-house model” they’ve been showing it the last few days. Like I said it was great in Ian, it was great in Irma which showed pretty much exactly what it did days before. I understand what you’re saying but they are using them.

“Futurecast”!!! They call it

[LarryWx]

I doubt any TV station is running "in-house" models. With a storm that has such a large area of TS winds, the exact landfall point is less important. Any hurricane force winds may cover only a few square miles out over the water. Expect some strong tropical storm-force winds north of where the center reaches the coast. Beyond then, all that cool, dry air over Florida now will be flowing into Nicole, knocking its core down fairly quickly. Not a big rain producer. I see the latest EC forecasting only 2-3 inches across the eastern half of the Peninsula. This is no Ian. It'll be all gone by Friday afternoon. So ends the season (I hope).

They have been. They always do. They even said “this is our in-house model” they’ve been showing it the last few days. Like I said it was great in Ian, it was great in Irma which showed pretty much exactly what it did days before. I understand what you’re saying but they are using them.

Nicole would have to take a sharp NW turn now to land close to Brevard

I disagree that it needs to turn sharply NW yet to have a chance to get close to Brevard. But it will need to start turning WNW very soon per models.

[Blown Away]

Big eye, @40 miles wide… Strong TS eyewall will hit FL long before center.

[Sciencerocks]

[SFLcane]

Lake worth is officially under hurricane warning now

[gatorcane]

Eyewall closing in on Palm Beach County. Turn should happen soon right?

[LandoWill]

Silly Microsoft. put a hurricane symbol on my weather page, i guess they don't see it keep getting shifted north every update lol

[wxman57]

WESH and WFTV (Orlando stations) “in house” models showing landfall closer to Brevard. It’s worth noting their models sniffed out Ian’s progress before the models even with the track across the state south of what was forecasted.

I doubt any TV station is running "in-house" models. With a storm that has such a large area of TS winds, the exact landfall point is less important. Any hurricane force winds may cover only a few square miles out over the water. Expect some strong tropical storm-force winds north of where the center reaches the coast. Beyond then, all that cool, dry air over Florida now will be flowing into Nicole, knocking its core down fairly quickly. Not a big rain producer. I see the latest EC forecasting only 2-3 inches across the eastern half of the Peninsula. This is no Ian. It'll be all gone by Friday afternoon. So ends the season (I hope).

They have been. They always do. They even said “this is our in-house model” they’ve been showing it the last few days. Like I said it was great in Ian, it was great in Irma which showed pretty much exactly what it did days before. I understand what you’re saying but they are using them.

What I think they're doing is taking one of the models, processing the data, and displaying it with their own graphics. Sort of like what Levi does at Tropical Tidbits. They're not his models.

[AutoPenalti]

Still working tomorrow according to my boss. Expects light breezy conditions and there should be no excuse that I don't come to work tomorrow.

[HurricaneBelle]

What I think they're doing is taking one of the models, processing the data, and displaying it with their own graphics. Sort of like what Levi does at Tropical Tidbits. They're not his models.

Yeah I'd love to see the budget at any of these TV stations for weather if they've developed and run their own models. At best it's a private model that gets distributed to affiliate stations, at worst it's what Wxman just said as far as re-badging an existing model.

[Poonwalker]

I doubt any TV station is running "in-house" models. With a storm that has such a large area of TS winds, the exact landfall point is less important. Any hurricane force winds may cover only a few square miles out over the water. Expect some strong tropical storm-force winds north of where the center reaches the coast. Beyond then, all that cool, dry air over Florida now will be flowing into Nicole, knocking its core down fairly quickly. Not a big rain producer. I see the latest EC forecasting only 2-3 inches across the eastern half of the Peninsula. This is no Ian. It'll be all gone by Friday afternoon. So ends the season (I hope).

They have been. They always do. They even said “this is our in-house model” they’ve been showing it the last few days. Like I said it was great in Ian, it was great in Irma which showed pretty much exactly what it did days before. I understand what you’re saying but they are using them.

“Futurecast”!!! They call it

I called this 11 days ago, I have the text on my phone to my brother to prove it .. had nothing to do with the gfs or anything ..lol

[wxman57]

Eyewall closing in on Palm Beach County. Turn should happen soon right?

I'm measuring the strongest winds at about 85 miles offshore. I think it's coming in a little south of the NHC's track. Our landfall is about 20-25 miles south of NHC's. It should begin a gradual north of west track soon, though. It's always hard to pin down these turns.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1590453150959693825

[LarryWx]

Eyewall closing in on Palm Beach County. Turn should happen soon right?

If she isn't north of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island, then we know that it is tracking south of the model consensus.

[wxman57]

Yeah I'd love to see the budget at any of these TV stations for weather if they've developed and run their own models. At best it's a private model that gets distributed to affiliate stations, at worst it's what Wxman just said as far as re-badging an existing model.

Yeah, a TV station would need to hire model programmers and developers, and buy supercomputer processing time. Not likely in any station's budget. I wonder which model they're using? GFS? Euro data can be VERY expensive (6 figures).

[got ants?]

I doubt any TV station is running "in-house" models. With a storm that has such a large area of TS winds, the exact landfall point is less important. Any hurricane force winds may cover only a few square miles out over the water. Expect some strong tropical storm-force winds north of where the center reaches the coast. Beyond then, all that cool, dry air over Florida now will be flowing into Nicole, knocking its core down fairly quickly. Not a big rain producer. I see the latest EC forecasting only 2-3 inches across the eastern half of the Peninsula. This is no Ian. It'll be all gone by Friday afternoon. So ends the season (I hope).

They have been. They always do. They even said “this is our in-house model” they’ve been showing it the last few days. Like I said it was great in Ian, it was great in Irma which showed pretty much exactly what it did days before. I understand what you’re saying but they are using them.

“Futurecast”!!! They call it

More than likely an intern that is on here
(storm2k)

[MetroMike]

Yeah I'd love to see the budget at any of these TV stations for weather if they've developed and run their own models. At best it's a private model that gets distributed to affiliate stations, at worst it's what Wxman just said as far as re-badging an existing model.

Yeah, a TV station would need to hire model programmers and developers, and buy supercomputer processing time. Not likely in any station's budget. I wonder which model they're using? GFS? Euro data can be VERY expensive (6 figures).

Well they DO have station models, who knows if its some subscription service or owner provided they use. Like there is a FOX model and I for one don't take these seriously and wish they would dump these house models.