Texas Fall 2022

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South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1161 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Nov 13, 2022 7:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:Okay, I've had enough winter for this year. I'd take the hottest day in July over the weather today across southeast Texas. Too cold to even go outside much less bike.


Nah, today was a beautiful winter day. Chilly, but feels nice in the sun. Might be time to bring out your heated blanket :wink:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1162 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:52 pm

Winter Storm Watch now SW of OKC for up to 6 inches :double:

It is November right?

It's hard to believe I may not even fully changeover
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1163 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:38 am

Brent wrote:Winter Storm Watch now SW of OKC for up to 6 inches :double:

It is November right?

It's hard to believe I may not even fully changeover

Now upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, holy moly!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1164 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:27 am

Looks like OKC pretty much gets the shaft with the heavier snow west.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1165 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:52 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Looks like OKC pretty much gets the shaft with the heavier snow west.

So do I, I may get rain-shafted.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1166 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 14, 2022 9:28 am

Frederick, OK has been constantly reporting snow in the past couple hours.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1167 Postby TropicalTundra » Mon Nov 14, 2022 9:28 am

44 degrees and dropping along with some rain :rain:
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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation

Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1168 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 14, 2022 9:36 am

Clinton, OK is now reporting snow and visibility is down to 1 3/4 of a mile.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1169 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 14, 2022 10:17 am

The snow is starting to stick on the roads in Far Western Oklahoma, I'm currently looking at the OK/TX line ODOT Camera at I-40.

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-11-14-9.21.27-AM.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1170 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 14, 2022 10:52 am

Snow is now reported in Woodward, OK, and Clinton is reporting snow again.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1171 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 14, 2022 11:45 am

gpsnowman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Okay, I've had enough winter for this year. I'd take the hottest day in July over the weather today across southeast Texas. Too cold to even go outside much less bike.

Nice to hear from you 57. Looking forward to your winter thoughts the coming months. Now we need Portastorm and Orangeblood to chime in!!


I hope that my posts consist of loving the extremely warm and dry winter. I haven't even considered winter yet.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1172 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 14, 2022 11:58 am

Wow, Woodward is reporting "Heavy Snow" in their location with a 1/4 mile visibility.

Snow is now falling in Weatherford, OK.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1173 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 14, 2022 12:17 pm

Rain/Snow mix in Lawton, OK looking at the ODOT Cameras
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1174 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 14, 2022 12:24 pm

Special OUN Sounding, I don't fully understand it though.

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Special-OUN-Sounding.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1175 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 14, 2022 12:58 pm

I just talked to my mother, she has reported rain/sleet mix off and on at the house all day long.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1176 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:12 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Special OUN Sounding, I don't fully understand it though.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Special-OUN-Sounding.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Special-OUN-Sounding.gif

What I’m gathering from that is that there’s a pretty big warm nose, but since the lower levels are unsaturated, wet bulb cooling would put enough of a dent in it to produce snow if precip is heavy enough
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1177 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:31 pm

I'm getting huge, fat snowflakes at my house right now!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1178 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:34 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Special OUN Sounding, I don't fully understand it though.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Special-OUN-Sounding.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Special-OUN-Sounding.gif


Don't understand it fully? It took me a while to fully understand soundings when I was in college. I took a job in the school weather station as a map plotter (no computers then). I volunteered to plot all the Skew-T soundings for the upper-level classes. Got quite familiar with them.

Let me give you a rundown. The chart is situated such that the ground is at the bottom and the top of the troposphere is at the top. Temperature runs along the horizontal scale. The temperature lines go up diagonally toward the upper right. I highlighted the freezing line in blue. Note that the red temperature line is to the right (warmer) of the freezing line until it gets up to just above the 850mb horizontal line. That's about 6000 ft above the ground. That says that the air temperature is above freezing up to about 6000 ft. Also note a very tiny area where that red line nearly touches freezing just above the bottom (surface). At that point, the red and green lines are close together, indicating a low cloud deck. From about 700mb up to about 400mb, the red and green lines are touching (or within 5C) of each other. This indicates clouds and probably the precipitation layer. That whole layer is to the left of the freezing line, so it's likely snow falling.

However, the snow reaches the point where the red line (temp) is right of the freezing line and starts to melt. From that high up, it would fall as liquid (rain). The snow wouldn't survive a fall of 6000 ft with air temps into the 40s. Remember that tiny area near the surface where the red temperature line is just touching the blue dashed freezing line? That means that the rain might pass through a very shallow layer of freezing air just above the ground. If that air is actually below freezing for a bit, then that rain may re-freeze into sleet.

Now, you're an expert. ;-)

P.S. That sounding was for 9am Central. The atmosphere is constantly changing. I see you're reporting snow 3 1/2 hours after that sounding, telling me the air overhead has cooled since 9am.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1179 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Special OUN Sounding, I don't fully understand it though.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Special-OUN-Sounding.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Special-OUN-Sounding.gif


Don't understand it fully? It took me a while to fully understand soundings when I was in college. I took a job in the school weather station as a map plotter (no computers then). I volunteered to plot all the Skew-T soundings for the upper-level classes. Got quite familiar with them.

Let me give you a rundown. The chart is situated such that the ground is at the bottom and the top of the troposphere is at the top. Temperature runs along the horizontal scale. The temperature lines go up diagonally toward the upper right. I highlighted the freezing line in blue. Note that the red temperature line is to the right (warmer) of the freezing line until it gets up to just above the 850mb horizontal line. That's about 6000 ft above the ground. That says that the air temperature is above freezing up to about 6000 ft. Also note a very tiny area where that red line nearly touches freezing just above the bottom (surface). At that point, the red and green lines are close together, indicating a low cloud deck. From about 700mb up to about 400mb, the red and green lines are touching (or within 5C) of each other. This indicates clouds and probably the precipitation layer. That whole layer is to the left of the freezing line, so it's likely snow falling.

However, the snow reaches the point where the red line (temp) is right of the freezing line and starts to melt. From that high up, it would fall as liquid (rain). The snow wouldn't survive a fall of 6000 ft with air temps into the 40s. Remember that tiny area near the surface where the red temperature line is just touching the blue dashed freezing line? That means that the rain might pass through a very shallow layer of freezing air just above the ground. If that air is actually below freezing for a bit, then that rain may re-freeze into sleet.

Now, you're an expert. ;-)

P.S. That sounding was for 9am Central. The atmosphere is constantly changing. I see you're reporting snow 3 1/2 hours after that sounding, telling me the air overhead has cooled since 9am.

http://wxman57.com/images/sounding.JPG


A huge thanks from you for helping me understand the soundings! :)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1180 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:48 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Special OUN Sounding, I don't fully understand it though.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Special-OUN-Sounding.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Special-OUN-Sounding.gif


Don't understand it fully? It took me a while to fully understand soundings when I was in college. I took a job in the school weather station as a map plotter (no computers then). I volunteered to plot all the Skew-T soundings for the upper-level classes. Got quite familiar with them.

Let me give you a rundown. The chart is situated such that the ground is at the bottom and the top of the troposphere is at the top. Temperature runs along the horizontal scale. The temperature lines go up diagonally toward the upper right. I highlighted the freezing line in blue. Note that the red temperature line is to the right (warmer) of the freezing line until it gets up to just above the 850mb horizontal line. That's about 6000 ft above the ground. That says that the air temperature is above freezing up to about 6000 ft. Also note a very tiny area where that red line nearly touches freezing just above the bottom (surface). At that point, the red and green lines are close together, indicating a low cloud deck. From about 700mb up to about 400mb, the red and green lines are touching (or within 5C) of each other. This indicates clouds and probably the precipitation layer. That whole layer is to the left of the freezing line, so it's likely snow falling.

However, the snow reaches the point where the red line (temp) is right of the freezing line and starts to melt. From that high up, it would fall as liquid (rain). The snow wouldn't survive a fall of 6000 ft with air temps into the 40s. Remember that tiny area near the surface where the red temperature line is just touching the blue dashed freezing line? That means that the rain might pass through a very shallow layer of freezing air just above the ground. If that air is actually below freezing for a bit, then that rain may re-freeze into sleet.

Now, you're an expert. ;-)

P.S. That sounding was for 9am Central. The atmosphere is constantly changing. I see you're reporting snow 3 1/2 hours after that sounding, telling me the air overhead has cooled since 9am.

http://wxman57.com/images/sounding.JPG


This is great. I've often struggled understanding soundings despite having taken one intro met class in college. This was a wonderful explanation.
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