Texas Winter 2022-2023

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Texas storm next week is Feb '21 all over again.

No, it's even worse than February 2021, I've found 20 inches NNE of College Station near I-45 between Houston and DFW.

True, i was just looking at the pattern and temps. Looks like precip for a longer period of time.

Something to note, in regards to the moisture, the change from the last run to this one was significant.

[wxman57]

Note that I'm not believing the 12Z GFS for a second. Previous run for the same time had 60 for lows in Houston on Christmas. That's a 50 deg swing.

[snowballzzz]

Note that I'm not believing the 12Z GFS for a second. Previous run for the same time had 60 for lows in Houston on Christmas. That's a 50 deg swing.

Didn't the GFS do this back and forth torch/major cold leading up to Feb 2021?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

As Ntxw said, we are past the point if it’s going to be well below normal or not. The question is how cold…..

Ensembles are eliminating any average or above average temp members.

[IcyTundra]

EPS and GEFS are indicating temps well below normal around Christmas. Don't know how cold it will get but the pattern is favorable for extreme cold.

[Texas Snow]

Note that I'm not believing the 12Z GFS for a second. Previous run for the same time had 60 for lows in Houston on Christmas. That's a 50 deg swing.

Didn't the GFS do this back and forth torch/major cold leading up to Feb 2021?

It kept delaying the cold but kept it there. this is different in its flip flopping.

[wxman57]

Note that I'm not believing the 12Z GFS for a second. Previous run for the same time had 60 for lows in Houston on Christmas. That's a 50 deg swing.

Didn't the GFS do this back and forth torch/major cold leading up to Feb 2021?

The point is, we're seeing major run to run differences on a forecast two weeks out. Be careful what you believe.

[CaptinCrunch]

Note that I'm not believing the 12Z GFS for a second. Previous run for the same time had 60 for lows in Houston on Christmas. That's a 50 deg swing.
http://wxman57.com/images/GFS2.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/GFS.png

I don't believe in any model outside of 72hrs

[wxman57]

Just for fun, here's a meteogram for Houston (IAH) from the 12Z run compared to the 6Z run. See if you can spot any difference.

[Ntxw]

FYI the AO went to -4 this month and may see a second dip closer to -5 or below. The last time -5 or below was Feb 2021.

On top of that there is strong correlation very low -AO in December continues into January and especially February.

[MGC]

LOL at 12Z GFS.....below zero almost all the way to the GOM in western La....this would challenge the 1899 cold snap.....MGC

[IcyTundra]

With my luck this potential winter event would be mostly freezing rain and sleet. Hoping for more of a 2004 Christmas eve type event.

[TropicalTundra]

12z CMC is 1983 HP dome and cold . 1065 in Montana and single digits dropping into TX.

12z GFS snows across TX.

Good!! Sounds wonderful to me!

GFS has single digits in Houston and negatives in Louisiana Christmas Eve + Day

[Ntxw]

Euro has the look it might unload, lots of cold up north. I think the runs sending it east into the blocks yesterday is correcting.

[harp]

12z CMC is 1983 HP dome and cold . 1065 in Montana and single digits dropping into TX.

12z GFS snows across TX.

Good!! Sounds wonderful to me!

GFS has single digits in Houston and negatives in Louisiana Christmas Eve + Day

[txtwister78]

While the GFS operational has done some massive flips and flops over the past several days (no question about that), the ensembles have not. This includes the Canadian and Euro ENS. I think it's important to recognize that and so while we may see a few more days of wild swings being that we're still 7-8 days out as it relates to the operationals, the consistency with the ensembles is such that there can be no doubt about what is on the table.

The winter precip threat is a different discussion and I think that won't really come into play until we start getting into that 3 day window. Buckle up folks and let's enjoy the ride.

[harp]

Good!! Sounds wonderful to me!

GFS has single digits in Houston and negatives in Louisiana Christmas Eve + Day

That would be a disaster for south Louisiana AND Texas.

[Iceresistance]

1065+ (Run is not finished) mb Arctic HP on the 12z Euro

[Ntxw]

1065+ (Run is not finished) mb Arctic HP on the 12z Euro

1068 with a dual HP center in NW Canada 1065mb.

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS has single digits in Houston and negatives in Louisiana Christmas Eve + Day

That would be a disaster for south Louisiana AND Texas.

Should be noted that those temps shown are enhanced by feedback loops created by several inches or more of snow/ice accumulation that the model tries to take into account. If this airmass were to come down as depicted, but with no precip, temps would still be very cold but not that extreme.