Texas Winter 2022-2023

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starsfan65
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1041 Postby starsfan65 » Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:18 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Before the cold action statts, there is the chance for stormy weather with the first front coming
Late Tonight thru Tomorrow morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1042 Postby Quixotic » Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:19 pm

Amazing that ensembles look like fantasy land truncation operational runs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1043 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:19 pm

Quixotic wrote:Amazing that ensembles look like fantasy land truncation operational runs.


That’s what is different this time.

It’s wild.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1044 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:21 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Before the cold action starts, there is the chance for stormy weather with the first front coming

Yes, I must get past the Tornado Threat today and into Tomorrow.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1045 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:26 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:18z did exactly what some of you said on here, and the same thing it did in '21. It pushed eastward through the block, which is unlikely to happen. I remember even 4 days out in '21, the GFS was still trying to push the PV east, and it was completely wrong. No flustered yet.

Those HP's are incredible. I'm saving some of these runs.


Did you see the CPC forecast from today? Looks like they’re trying to push the coldest anomalies somewhat east of us too. I don’t necessarily buy it though.


You can go back to the archives and pull up cpc forecasts. Climo says go east is the rule but climo isn't always reality. Sometimes with extremes climo goes out the window. Cold air damming is real. Dense, brutal cold air gets pushed up against the front range and pools, eventually bullying south in the presence of very high pressures. If we did not have -AO and -NAO then yes east is the path of least resistance, but there is a lot of resistance.

This was leading up to the 2 week period before Feb 2021. What happened we all know, it dived down into Tampico.

Image

Image

Seems they have also adjusted their color scaling with the percentages now. So what doesn't look as impressive today, is quite impressive back then.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1046 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:41 pm

So far the lowest high I've seen on any local forecast is next friday the 23rd and it's H38 L26. Other than that it's pretty much 40s next week for highs. Now if this is even close to 2021 we should start seeing those highs next week start falling into the 30s pretty early. Now there is the idea that the extreme cold comes in after Christmas, but that's a wait and see forecast.

As for precipitation goes, it's looking only like 20-30% chances late next week. Either way I'm ready, had to put an heavy duty tarp over the wood pile to keep it dry the past week. First time in a long time I've had to do that, but this El Nino like pattern just keeps coming.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1047 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:47 pm

KFOR has three days in a row with snow chances next week with highs only just below freezing and dropping, this is wild!
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1048 Postby opticsguy » Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:54 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:18z did exactly what some of you said on here, and the same thing it did in '21. It pushed eastward through the block, which is unlikely to happen. I remember even 4 days out in '21, the GFS was still trying to push the PV east, and it was completely wrong. No flustered yet.

Those HP's are incredible. I'm saving some of these runs.


Did you see the CPC forecast from today? Looks like they’re trying to push the coldest anomalies somewhat east of us too. I don’t necessarily buy it though.


The Coriolis force will pull the high pressure to the right along the Rocky Mountains. Happens every time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1049 Postby gatorcane » Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:14 pm

Wow that 12Z GFS showed single digits down to the northern Gulf coast! :cold: :eek:

I don’t think I have seen so much white that far south before on a TT map:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1050 Postby orangeblood » Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:23 pm

Had some password issues but finally able to post….the GEFS mean is deja vu to 2021 - 3 days of below freezing DFW at 10-12 days out is a huge indicator of something serious coming down. As a mean is incredible. Almost saw the exact thing tracking the 2021 outbreak

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Last edited by orangeblood on Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1051 Postby Itryatgolf » Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:23 pm

It definitely looks cold. No doubt. Hopefully we will see some winter precipitation if it gets cold
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1052 Postby Itryatgolf » Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:42 pm

Wxman57 didn't comment too much about the 12zeuro showing that 1072mb high dropping south :grrr:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1053 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:45 pm

Lets not lose sight that first (possibly of many) front comes through tomorrow night and early Weds morning for parts of TX. That puts the kaput on the old milder regime. All downhill with the pattern shift, not five days from now but a day or two.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1054 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:49 pm

Someone mentioned something earlier (I thought it was thundersleetdreams) about -70’s popping up in our source region but I can’t seem to find anything quite that cold on the models. I saw a -62 in NW Canada on the 18z GFS but I’d like to know where they were getting the -70 from.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1055 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:53 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Someone mentioned something earlier (I thought it was thundersleetdreams) about -70’s popping up in our source region but I can’t seem to find anything quite that cold on the models. I saw a -62 in NW Canada on the 18z GFS but I’d like to know where they were getting the -70 from.

BAMWX mentioned 75°F below normal in British Columbia on a Tweet (Twit)
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1056 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:54 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Someone mentioned something earlier (I thought it was thundersleetdreams) about -70’s popping up in our source region but I can’t seem to find anything quite that cold on the models. I saw a -62 in NW Canada on the 18z GFS but I’d like to know where they were getting the -70 from.



I saw a min of -70 on one of the model runs. I’ll go look back and see which one it was. It may have been the CMC.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1057 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:02 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Someone mentioned something earlier (I thought it was thundersleetdreams) about -70’s popping up in our source region but I can’t seem to find anything quite that cold on the models. I saw a -62 in NW Canada on the 18z GFS but I’d like to know where they were getting the -70 from.


12z Euro had a -56.3C temp in Yukon. Not sure how much of that is elevation but that's the max min late in its run. Which equates to -69F.

Edit: 18z GFS had a -58.1C which is -72F.

Did the very long range runs feature this?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1058 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:03 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Someone mentioned something earlier (I thought it was thundersleetdreams) about -70’s popping up in our source region but I can’t seem to find anything quite that cold on the models. I saw a -62 in NW Canada on the 18z GFS but I’d like to know where they were getting the -70 from.


12z Euro had a -56.3C temp in Yukon. Not sure how much of that is elevation but that's the max min late in its run. Which equates to -69F.

Edit: 18z GFS had a -58.1C which is -72F.


Hmmm.. if we’re talking about our source region being in the -60 to -70’s range then that would only give me even more confidence that we could be looking at something really serious. That’s gonna be one of my focuses over the next few days is seeing just how cold and loaded up it gets up there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1059 Postby Itryatgolf » Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:05 pm

Ryan maue mentioned China and Russia having the common -80f temperature profiles over there :eek: :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1060 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:08 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:Ryan maue mentioned China and Russia having the common -80f temperature profiles over there :eek: :double:

And wind chills below -100°F!?
Last edited by Iceresistance on Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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