Texas Winter 2022-2023

[starsfan65]

Before the cold action statts, there is the chance for stormy weather with the first front coming

Late Tonight thru Tomorrow morning.

[Quixotic]

Amazing that ensembles look like fantasy land truncation operational runs.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Amazing that ensembles look like fantasy land truncation operational runs.

That’s what is different this time.

It’s wild.

[Iceresistance]

Before the cold action starts, there is the chance for stormy weather with the first front coming

Yes, I must get past the Tornado Threat today and into Tomorrow.

[Ntxw]

18z did exactly what some of you said on here, and the same thing it did in '21. It pushed eastward through the block, which is unlikely to happen. I remember even 4 days out in '21, the GFS was still trying to push the PV east, and it was completely wrong. No flustered yet.

Those HP's are incredible. I'm saving some of these runs.

Did you see the CPC forecast from today? Looks like they’re trying to push the coldest anomalies somewhat east of us too. I don’t necessarily buy it though.

You can go back to the archives and pull up cpc forecasts. Climo says go east is the rule but climo isn't always reality. Sometimes with extremes climo goes out the window. Cold air damming is real. Dense, brutal cold air gets pushed up against the front range and pools, eventually bullying south in the presence of very high pressures. If we did not have -AO and -NAO then yes east is the path of least resistance, but there is a lot of resistance.

This was leading up to the 2 week period before Feb 2021. What happened we all know, it dived down into Tampico.





Seems they have also adjusted their color scaling with the percentages now. So what doesn't look as impressive today, is quite impressive back then.

[CaptinCrunch]

So far the lowest high I've seen on any local forecast is next friday the 23rd and it's H38 L26. Other than that it's pretty much 40s next week for highs. Now if this is even close to 2021 we should start seeing those highs next week start falling into the 30s pretty early. Now there is the idea that the extreme cold comes in after Christmas, but that's a wait and see forecast.

As for precipitation goes, it's looking only like 20-30% chances late next week. Either way I'm ready, had to put an heavy duty tarp over the wood pile to keep it dry the past week. First time in a long time I've had to do that, but this El Nino like pattern just keeps coming.

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has three days in a row with snow chances next week with highs only just below freezing and dropping, this is wild!

[opticsguy]

18z did exactly what some of you said on here, and the same thing it did in '21. It pushed eastward through the block, which is unlikely to happen. I remember even 4 days out in '21, the GFS was still trying to push the PV east, and it was completely wrong. No flustered yet.

Those HP's are incredible. I'm saving some of these runs.

Did you see the CPC forecast from today? Looks like they’re trying to push the coldest anomalies somewhat east of us too. I don’t necessarily buy it though.

The Coriolis force will pull the high pressure to the right along the Rocky Mountains. Happens every time.

[gatorcane]

Wow that 12Z GFS showed single digits down to the northern Gulf coast!

I don’t think I have seen so much white that far south before on a TT map:

[orangeblood]

Had some password issues but finally able to post….the GEFS mean is deja vu to 2021 - 3 days of below freezing DFW at 10-12 days out is a huge indicator of something serious coming down. As a mean is incredible. Almost saw the exact thing tracking the 2021 outbreak

[Itryatgolf]

It definitely looks cold. No doubt. Hopefully we will see some winter precipitation if it gets cold

[Itryatgolf]

Wxman57 didn't comment too much about the 12zeuro showing that 1072mb high dropping south

[Ntxw]

Lets not lose sight that first (possibly of many) front comes through tomorrow night and early Weds morning for parts of TX. That puts the kaput on the old milder regime. All downhill with the pattern shift, not five days from now but a day or two.

[Cpv17]

Someone mentioned something earlier (I thought it was thundersleetdreams) about -70’s popping up in our source region but I can’t seem to find anything quite that cold on the models. I saw a -62 in NW Canada on the 18z GFS but I’d like to know where they were getting the -70 from.

[Iceresistance]

Someone mentioned something earlier (I thought it was thundersleetdreams) about -70’s popping up in our source region but I can’t seem to find anything quite that cold on the models. I saw a -62 in NW Canada on the 18z GFS but I’d like to know where they were getting the -70 from.

BAMWX mentioned 75°F below normal in British Columbia on a Tweet (Twit)

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Someone mentioned something earlier (I thought it was thundersleetdreams) about -70’s popping up in our source region but I can’t seem to find anything quite that cold on the models. I saw a -62 in NW Canada on the 18z GFS but I’d like to know where they were getting the -70 from.

I saw a min of -70 on one of the model runs. I’ll go look back and see which one it was. It may have been the CMC.

[Iceresistance]

Someone mentioned something earlier (I thought it was thundersleetdreams) about -70’s popping up in our source region but I can’t seem to find anything quite that cold on the models. I saw a -62 in NW Canada on the 18z GFS but I’d like to know where they were getting the -70 from.

12z Euro had a -56.3C temp in Yukon. Not sure how much of that is elevation but that's the max min late in its run. Which equates to -69F.

Edit: 18z GFS had a -58.1C which is -72F.

Did the very long range runs feature this?

[Cpv17]

Someone mentioned something earlier (I thought it was thundersleetdreams) about -70’s popping up in our source region but I can’t seem to find anything quite that cold on the models. I saw a -62 in NW Canada on the 18z GFS but I’d like to know where they were getting the -70 from.

12z Euro had a -56.3C temp in Yukon. Not sure how much of that is elevation but that's the max min late in its run. Which equates to -69F.

Edit: 18z GFS had a -58.1C which is -72F.

Hmmm.. if we’re talking about our source region being in the -60 to -70’s range then that would only give me even more confidence that we could be looking at something really serious. That’s gonna be one of my focuses over the next few days is seeing just how cold and loaded up it gets up there.

[Itryatgolf]

Ryan maue mentioned China and Russia having the common -80f temperature profiles over there

[Iceresistance]

Ryan maue mentioned China and Russia having the common -80f temperature profiles over there

And wind chills below -100°F!?