Texas Winter 2022-2023

[SnowintheFalls]

In case you were wondering the highest modern times prior was 2021's 1058mb over land in NW Canada just before the plunge.

https://i.imgur.com/ivqIgQE.gif

Would this have an impact on bringing snow to Texas or extreme cold?

[txtwister78]

Another one for this region in about a month

 https://twitter.com/NWSMidland/status/1603901070660468739

[Ntxw]

In case you were wondering the highest modern times prior was 2021's 1058mb over land in NW Canada just before the plunge.

https://i.imgur.com/ivqIgQE.gif

Would this have an impact on bringing snow to Texas or extreme cold?

Cold.

FW put out a graphic recently. Could probably shave 5-10 degrees off this easily.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1603915458062827528

[Cpv17]

In case you were wondering the highest modern times prior was 2021's 1058mb over land in NW Canada just before the plunge.

https://i.imgur.com/ivqIgQE.gif

Would this have an impact on bringing snow to Texas or extreme cold?

Cold.

FW put out a graphic recently. Could probably shave 5-10 degrees off this easily.

https://i.imgur.com/f6mXIKW.png

I’m thinking Dallas will make a push for 5°F and 15°F for Houston.

[Ntxw]

While we wait for the 0z models a fun read of a much forgotten late December cold blast few talk about. December 1929. Hillsboro holds the state record for 26" snowfall in 24 hours. Not much is said about this event and maps for it are hard to find even in reanalysis. But even a slight +PNA ridge didn't stop it!



This is the best I could pull from the 20c reanalysis.

Pattern leading up the the event.



The event

[Cpv17]

While we wait for the 0z models a fun read of a much forgotten late December cold blast few talk about. December 1929. Hillsboro holds the state record for 26" snowfall in 24 hours. Not much is said about this event and maps for it are hard to find even in reanalysis. But even a slight +PNA ridge didn't stop it!

https://i.imgur.com/MyHS2qJ.png

This is the best I could pull from the 20c reanalysis.

Pattern leading up the the event.

https://i.imgur.com/4LKQWH1.png

The event

https://i.imgur.com/yJ7XC1z.png

https://i.imgur.com/daTJXtD.png

Check out this one from 1895:

[Ntxw]

While we wait for the 0z models a fun read of a much forgotten late December cold blast few talk about. December 1929. Hillsboro holds the state record for 26" snowfall in 24 hours. Not much is said about this event and maps for it are hard to find even in reanalysis. But even a slight +PNA ridge didn't stop it!

https://i.imgur.com/MyHS2qJ.png

This is the best I could pull from the 20c reanalysis.

Pattern leading up the the event.

https://i.imgur.com/4LKQWH1.png

The event

https://i.imgur.com/yJ7XC1z.png

https://i.imgur.com/daTJXtD.png

Check out this one from 1895:

https://i.postimg.cc/zfxTLRz0/607-B26-F1-E18-F-4-F6-A-86-EC-7-B6-F73-E24-A3-E.png

Despite what we say about the PNA as a trend, +PNA is somewhat good for the coast near the gulf. Some of the biggest events are +PNA. 1895 was +PNA with west based -NAO a similar upcoming period post Christmas. This is what January 2018 was, huge central Canada ridge shoved everything way south. Get a system to go and make it's own cold. Of course would need some cold air involved as well but it was a big block back then.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Any idea what we should expect to see on the 0z runs? Should we expect westward trend to continue? Anything we should watch for that would increase precip chances?

[BrokenGlass]

Any chance of a temp bust for Monday?


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[Ntxw]

Any idea what we should expect to see on the 0z runs? Should we expect westward trend to continue? Anything we should watch for that would increase precip chances?

Would expect another slight shift west from the GFS. The more cold it finally sees to dump into the trough the further south and west the system will go.

[Iceresistance]

I forget, does anyone know the time on when the 0z ICON starts?

[Ntxw]

I forget, does anyone know the time on when the 0z ICON starts?

It started.

[Brent]

The OKC TV met(and not Mike Morgan or his station ) just posted the chances of a White Christmas are increasing

That's even more interesting when you consider as of now the better snow is north and east of OKC

[Iceresistance]

I forget, does anyone know the time on when the 0z ICON starts?

It started.

Ah yes, let's see what King ICON can do.
I also was very much "Meh" on the ICON until February 2021.

Current WPC Analysis has 1058 mb in Alaska, this HP is no joke.

[mcallum177]

The current temp in Fort Yukon is -31 which looks about on par with all the op models for about 00z Saturday. Or am I reading that wrong?

[Iceresistance]

0z ICON has already trended WAY colder compared to 12z and 18z.

EDIT: I will admit that the 0z ICON is being weird right now.

[Ntxw]

0z ICON has already trended WAY colder compared to 12z and 18z.

But it is also different than the 12z run and sends a TPV lobe to Ontario?

[Iceresistance]

0z ICON has already trended WAY colder compared to 12z and 18z.

But it is also different than the 12z run and sends a TPV lobe to Ontario?

I've also noticed that, hopefully it's just an outlier (being weird as well) and not the beginning of a trend for other models to follow. That would be annoying!

UPDATE: Nope! It still comes in with the cold and snow! Not the definition of a "Blue Norther" but still nasty cold!

[Ntxw]

0z ICON has already trended WAY colder compared to 12z and 18z.

But it is also different than the 12z run and sends a TPV lobe to Ontario?

I've also noticed that, hopefully it's just an outlier (being weird as well) and not the beginning of a trend for other models to follow. That would be annoying!

UPDATE: Nope! It still comes in with the cold and snow! Not the definition of a "Blue Norther" but still nasty cold!

Splits the energy. Still cold by the sheer mass of the HP but technically is a faster solution. More wonky moves .