Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Lagreeneyes03
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2121 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Sat Dec 17, 2022 8:08 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:At this time, I'm not seeing anything that would give us any precipitation with the cold air here in SE Texas. Anyone seeing anything that might come into play that could change that?


Yeah. The vorticity maps and trends. Absolutely that precip is not off the table. It’s getting more bullish


For who tho? DFW? (hoping!)
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2122 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 17, 2022 8:22 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:My computer just has a tab open constantly so I assume that makes me online regardless of when I’m reading. I think now we are largely in a waiting mode until/unless there is a dramatic shift again. That always brings comments.

Or better yet, the model run shows snow for DFW! :D
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2123 Postby Snowman67 » Sat Dec 17, 2022 8:25 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:At this time, I'm not seeing anything that would give us any precipitation with the cold air here in SE Texas. Anyone seeing anything that might come into play that could change that?


Yeah. The vorticity maps and trends. Absolutely that precip is not off the table. It’s getting more bullish


Not that I put any stock in the app on my iPhone but it did just change to show a 30% chance of precip on Christmas Day.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2124 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 17, 2022 8:35 pm

I do get why they are conservative for the snowfall potential, it's a fast moving system right now on the models.

Image
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2125 Postby SnowintheFalls » Sat Dec 17, 2022 8:49 pm

Iceresistance wrote:I do get why they are conservative for the snowfall potential, it's a fast moving system right now on the models.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png


7%. So you're saying there's a chance?? lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2126 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Dec 17, 2022 8:52 pm

Iceresistance wrote:I do get why they are conservative for the snowfall potential, it's a fast moving system right now on the models.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png


Quick event and trough won't be neg tilted. A lot of dry air also so depends on how much moisture there is despite some higher ratios involved. GFS right now seems a little bullish across your area but still several days out so not surprised.

I think it's going to snow but track of short wave still debatable so that's also a factor several days out
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2127 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 17, 2022 9:38 pm

Iceresistance wrote:I do get why they are conservative for the snowfall potential, it's a fast moving system right now on the models.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png


Yeah our TV met here so far says just a dusting :spam: but his track record has been poor :lol:. But also I mean it is still day 4 I wouldn't expect anyone serious to go all in yet anyway
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2128 Postby Quixotic » Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:12 pm

Unlikely, but the surprise accumulating snow is not off the table yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2129 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:15 pm

The TWC app now has "watching a potential winter storm" for me :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2130 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:22 pm

Brent wrote:The TWC app now has "watching a potential winter storm" for me :double:


Yeah I believe that app is aligned with the GFS so as that changes the TWC app will too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2131 Postby 3090 » Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:23 pm

Brent wrote:The TWC app now has "watching a potential winter storm" for me :double:

Where is me? Thanks!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2132 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:25 pm

3090 wrote:
Brent wrote:The TWC app now has "watching a potential winter storm" for me :double:

Where is me? Thanks!


I'm up in Tulsa

Also if it follows the GFS well it hasn't shown nearly the snow the GFS has shown on the runs today so far
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2133 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:27 pm

Quixotic wrote:Unlikely, but the surprise accumulating snow is not off the table yet.


Based on the 12/18z super ensemble blend, I would put it about 20% DFW sees 0.5-1" of snow. Obviously, that increases as you move north and east.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2134 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:30 pm

00z ICON showing a nice little height rise in the East and the axis of the Pacific Ridge has shifted a bit westward away from the coast.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2135 Postby ATXAG95 » Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:31 pm

All these non Texas posts on the Texas weather thread is confusing lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2136 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:32 pm

ATXAG95 wrote:All these non Texas posts on the Texas weather thread is confusing lol


This thread welcomes people from Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arkansas, and even Colorado. However, we know they all wish they were Texans.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2137 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:35 pm

Brent wrote:
3090 wrote:
Brent wrote:The TWC app now has "watching a potential winter storm" for me :double:

Where is me? Thanks!


I'm up in Tulsa

Also if it follows the GFS well it hasn't shown nearly the snow the GFS has shown on the runs today so far


Yeah just went and looked at it...I don't know how you can "watch for a winter storm" and only have 1 inch of snowfall but I guess. Lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2138 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:37 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Brent wrote:
3090 wrote:Where is me? Thanks!


I'm up in Tulsa

Also if it follows the GFS well it hasn't shown nearly the snow the GFS has shown on the runs today so far


Yeah just went and looked at it...I don't know how you can "watch for a winter storm" and only have 1 inch of snowfall but I guess. Lol


Yeah I dunno either it's had the same total all day but that's the first time it said that. An inch is definitely not a storm up here for sure

Oh well it's an app :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2139 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:52 pm

bubba hotep wrote:00z ICON showing a nice little height rise in the East and the axis of the Pacific Ridge has shifted a bit westward away from the coast.


Thought we might see a bit more of a SW west bump but it was still pretty good, esp. for NE OK and Northern AR.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2140 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:08 pm

DFW in on the snow 0z GFS. 5h didn't really change much.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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