Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Lagreeneyes03]

At this time, I'm not seeing anything that would give us any precipitation with the cold air here in SE Texas. Anyone seeing anything that might come into play that could change that?

Yeah. The vorticity maps and trends. Absolutely that precip is not off the table. It’s getting more bullish

For who tho? DFW? (hoping!)

[Iceresistance]

My computer just has a tab open constantly so I assume that makes me online regardless of when I’m reading. I think now we are largely in a waiting mode until/unless there is a dramatic shift again. That always brings comments.

Or better yet, the model run shows snow for DFW!

[Snowman67]

At this time, I'm not seeing anything that would give us any precipitation with the cold air here in SE Texas. Anyone seeing anything that might come into play that could change that?

Yeah. The vorticity maps and trends. Absolutely that precip is not off the table. It’s getting more bullish

Not that I put any stock in the app on my iPhone but it did just change to show a 30% chance of precip on Christmas Day.

[Iceresistance]

I do get why they are conservative for the snowfall potential, it's a fast moving system right now on the models.


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png

[SnowintheFalls]

I do get why they are conservative for the snowfall potential, it's a fast moving system right now on the models.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png

7%. So you're saying there's a chance?? lol

[txtwister78]

I do get why they are conservative for the snowfall potential, it's a fast moving system right now on the models.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png

Quick event and trough won't be neg tilted. A lot of dry air also so depends on how much moisture there is despite some higher ratios involved. GFS right now seems a little bullish across your area but still several days out so not surprised.

I think it's going to snow but track of short wave still debatable so that's also a factor several days out

[Brent]

I do get why they are conservative for the snowfall potential, it's a fast moving system right now on the models.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/NWS-Norman-Snowfall-chances.png

Yeah our TV met here so far says just a dusting but his track record has been poor . But also I mean it is still day 4 I wouldn't expect anyone serious to go all in yet anyway

[Quixotic]

Unlikely, but the surprise accumulating snow is not off the table yet.

[Brent]

The TWC app now has "watching a potential winter storm" for me

[txtwister78]

The TWC app now has "watching a potential winter storm" for me

Yeah I believe that app is aligned with the GFS so as that changes the TWC app will too.

[3090]

The TWC app now has "watching a potential winter storm" for me

Where is me? Thanks!

[Brent]

The TWC app now has "watching a potential winter storm" for me

Where is me? Thanks!

I'm up in Tulsa

Also if it follows the GFS well it hasn't shown nearly the snow the GFS has shown on the runs today so far

[bubba hotep]

Unlikely, but the surprise accumulating snow is not off the table yet.

Based on the 12/18z super ensemble blend, I would put it about 20% DFW sees 0.5-1" of snow. Obviously, that increases as you move north and east.

[bubba hotep]

00z ICON showing a nice little height rise in the East and the axis of the Pacific Ridge has shifted a bit westward away from the coast.

[ATXAG95]

All these non Texas posts on the Texas weather thread is confusing lol

[bubba hotep]

All these non Texas posts on the Texas weather thread is confusing lol

This thread welcomes people from Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arkansas, and even Colorado. However, we know they all wish they were Texans.

[txtwister78]

The TWC app now has "watching a potential winter storm" for me

Where is me? Thanks!

I'm up in Tulsa

Also if it follows the GFS well it hasn't shown nearly the snow the GFS has shown on the runs today so far

Yeah just went and looked at it...I don't know how you can "watch for a winter storm" and only have 1 inch of snowfall but I guess. Lol

[Brent]

Where is me? Thanks!

I'm up in Tulsa

Also if it follows the GFS well it hasn't shown nearly the snow the GFS has shown on the runs today so far

Yeah just went and looked at it...I don't know how you can "watch for a winter storm" and only have 1 inch of snowfall but I guess. Lol

Yeah I dunno either it's had the same total all day but that's the first time it said that. An inch is definitely not a storm up here for sure

Oh well it's an app

[bubba hotep]

00z ICON showing a nice little height rise in the East and the axis of the Pacific Ridge has shifted a bit westward away from the coast.

Thought we might see a bit more of a SW west bump but it was still pretty good, esp. for NE OK and Northern AR.

[Ntxw]

DFW in on the snow 0z GFS. 5h didn't really change much.