Texas Winter 2022-2023

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3081 Postby orangeblood » Thu Dec 29, 2022 10:53 am

First signs of a PV split showing up on long range GFS for mid month

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3082 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 29, 2022 10:54 am

Portastorm wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Cedar Fever. It is coming ugh...warm air from the south will make it miserable for those who suffer in NTX, like myself.


Yeah numbers going up here too. While the weather this weekend will be nice (sunny and 70s), with that pattern and south winds ... I expect cedar counts to rapidly increase. Ugh.

It’s already bad in Springfield, MO, I can only imagine how bad it is at my house.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3083 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Dec 29, 2022 10:58 am

orangeblood wrote:First signs of a PV split showing up on long range GFS for mid month

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/nhemi/t10_anom/1672293600/1673676000-t5As24GsZSQ.png


We'll need something to shake up the pattern. North America will be flooded with Pacific air until the NPAC jet relaxes. The Euro weeklies are particularly ugly, with the AO/NAO/EPO all going positive after mid-month, but the PNA does pull back, allowing for storms to track over Texas. That should give us some better rain chances statewide.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3084 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Dec 29, 2022 11:37 am

Sorry, but I had to do it....I had to turn the damn AC back on to start the new year. :lol:

Humidity and pollen make it no bueno for having windows open..
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3085 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 29, 2022 12:17 pm

DFW's forecast of 75F on New Years day is good enough to be #5 warmest high. Low of 54 is good for top 10.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3086 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Dec 29, 2022 12:48 pm

Ntxw wrote:DFW's forecast of 75F on New Years day is good enough to be #5 warmest high. Low of 54 is good for top 10.


It’s a lot easier lately to set new highs than it is to set new lows.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3087 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 29, 2022 1:06 pm

The SSW over Alaska could be a monstrous one. GFS is starting to show consistency for this in Mid January
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3088 Postby Quixotic » Thu Dec 29, 2022 1:23 pm

I don’t want anymore rain until there’s some grass to hold the mud in place.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3089 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:07 pm

We hit 70 after being 1 degree last Thursday :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3090 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:53 pm

Brent wrote:We hit 70 after being 1 degree last Thursday :spam:


What a contrast today was compared to one week ago. Next Tues/Weds a fairly potent system with cold front should bring things back closer to normal for Oklahoma and NTX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3091 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 29, 2022 5:23 pm

Most aggressive model run yet (GFS) for middle of next week for some relief. It is January Afterall and doesn't take much to cool it down.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3092 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Dec 29, 2022 5:26 pm

Ntxw wrote:Most aggressive model run yet (GFS) for middle of next week for some relief. It is January Afterall and doesn't take much to cool it down.

https://i.imgur.com/4V6C3aK.gif


Sounds great to me! Any potential moisture falling from the sky or dry passage?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3093 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Dec 29, 2022 5:30 pm

If anyone is following the severe potential for next Monday, gonna have to watch how the discrepancies between the gfs and euro resolve. The gfs looks like a somewhat severe event pushing through north and east Texas before noon, but the euro is a lot slower and more concerning, producing open warm sector storms in most of the region. Probably won’t know much until the nam is in range, but something to keep an eye on.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3094 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Dec 29, 2022 5:43 pm

Storms starting to build in coverage across East Texas, looks like a decent event for them.

Image

Image

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1175
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2022

Areas affected...portions of eastern TX & the ArkLaTex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292229Z - 300429Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and beginning
to align across portions of eastern TX. Hourly totals to 2.5"
with local amounts of 5" are possible through 04z.

Discussion...Thunderstorms across central TX are beginning to
produce 2"+ an hour rain totals per radar estimates near Bastrop
and Giddings TX near a pre-frontal trough/leading edge of dew
point fall, with a general upward swing in coverage noted on radar
reflectivity across eastern TX. Cloud tops are cooling as well.
A second band appears to be setting up closer to Shreveport LA and
the western LA/AR border. Precipitable water values have been
rising quickly, and are up to ~1.3" near this activity per GPS
data. When combined with 1000-500 hPa thickness values near 561
dm, the atmosphere is almost completely saturated. Inflow at 850
hPa is out of the south-southwest at ~25 kts per VAD wind
profiles. Effective bulk shear is ~40 kts, which when combined
with the deep layer south-southwest flow is organizing convection
into a lengthening band. ML CAPE is 1000-1500 J/kg per SPC
mesoanalyses, with some uptick noted over the past several hours.
Upper level divergence is being aided both by an upper level
trough moving through the central Plains and an apparent shortwave
moving towards the region from northeast Mexico.

Mesoscale guidance indicates that hourly and overall rain totals
should be broadening across eastern TX into the ArkLaTex due to
this band. In a few hours, it is possible that outflow boundaries
could lead to some eastward drift, which appears to be indicated
in the 18z HREF guidance. An earlier band across west-central LA
produced local amounts of 5" -- so no reason why isolated spots in
eastern TX couldn't receive the same. Hourly totals to 2.5" are
possible where cells train, merge, and/or mesocyclones manage to
form to hold up any forward propagation in a few hours. These
totals would be most problematic in urban areas.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3095 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Dec 29, 2022 5:46 pm

Well I don’t think Cali is gonna be in a drought anymore. Never seen so much rain forecasted for that area. Pacific jet is just raging out of control.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3096 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Dec 29, 2022 6:05 pm

I'm sure it's been discussed here ad nauseum so forgive me, but are there any decent analogs for our winters (and spring?) in a 3rd year Nina seemingly transitioning to ENSO neutral soon?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3097 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 29, 2022 6:09 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:I'm sure it's been discussed here ad nauseum so forgive me, but are there any decent analogs for our winters (and spring?) in a 3rd year Nina seemingly transitioning to ENSO neutral soon?


The PDO is the more telling story. We are amidst a very deep -PDO episode (reverse of 2014-2019 ++PDO). The next El Nino will be of the cold PDO kind like the late 1977, 1978, 2002, and 2009 variety.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3098 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Dec 29, 2022 6:16 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:I'm sure it's been discussed here ad nauseum so forgive me, but are there any decent analogs for our winters (and spring?) in a 3rd year Nina seemingly transitioning to ENSO neutral soon?


The PDO is the more telling story. We are amidst a very deep -PDO episode (reverse of 2014-2019 ++PDO). The next El Nino will be of the cold PDO kind like the late 1977, 1978, 2002, and 2009 variety.


Sounds like next fall/winter could be wet for Texas if true to 2009 analog. But pretty average precip until then. Dry 2023 summer? Who knows.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3099 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Dec 29, 2022 6:47 pm

18z GFS wasn’t too bad of a run. Slowly coming around to some cooler air possibly and relaxing the Pacific jet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3100 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 29, 2022 10:08 pm

One thing I noticed about today... We were 1 degree off the record high from 1984... Well January 1985 would follow :lol:
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