Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Cpv17]

Hurricane hunters flying out into the storm crashing into the west coast? Wtf man that’s wild!

[Cpv17]

What’s he saying?

It’s a very long read and I’ll admit, I was too lazy to read all of it so I just skimmed through it but it sounds like to me he’s seeing a decent chance for an SSW and late Jan and February a return to colder weather but he doesn’t know specific locations this far out.

[Iceresistance]

I just had a flashback to January 2021, it was more mild and warm, 70s was more common. Then came February 2021 and y'all know how that went . . .

Could this have the February 2021 repeat? Doubtful, but the pattern setup is similar to what happened nearly 2 years ago.

[HockeyTx82]

Hurricane hunters flying out into the storm crashing into the west coast? Wtf man that’s wild!

[youtube]https://youtu.be/oxJUToUM8ro[/youtube]

[Quixotic]

SSW effects can be rather hard to predict as far as where the cold dumps. I think it was 2012 or 13 Where we had one and everybody got excited and it dumped in Europe .

[HockeyTx82]

SSW effects can be rather hard to predict as far as where the cold dumps. I think it was 2012 or 13 Where we had one and everybody got excited and it dumped in Europe .

I've been on this board for over ten years. Only a few times has cold actually happened and aside from Feb 21 they have not been earth shattering. While fun to monitor and watch long range more often then not the long range repeats of 83 and 89 have never happened since. We've seen similar patterns and guidance showing it but it always moderates, goes east or stays up north it seems.

All my opinion. Please rebuttal as warranted.

[Cpv17]

SSW effects can be rather hard to predict as far as where the cold dumps. I think it was 2012 or 13 Where we had one and everybody got excited and it dumped in Europe .

I've been on this board for over ten years. Only a few times has cold actually happened and aside from Feb 21 they have not been earth shattering. While fun to monitor and watch long range more often then not the long range repeats of 83 and 89 have never happened since. We've seen similar patterns and guidance showing it but it always moderates, goes east or stays up north it seems.

All my opinion. Please rebuttal as warranted.

I wonder what the snowpack was in 83 and 89 because that plays a huge role in moderation.

[wxman57]

I wonder what the snowpack was in 83 and 89 because that plays a huge role in moderation.

I was forecasting for Houston back in 1983. Had a former classmate working for a company in Oklahoma City at the time. I remember the cold air sank slowly southward down the Plains, providing a decent snow coverage. The front seemed to sit just north of the Red River for a while. We had very nice weather here in SE TX, but it was bitterly cold in Oklahoma. The front started moving quickly southward and we were in a deep freeze for 4-5 days. So many homes had burst pipes. Water mains were broken everywhere. There was no water pressure for days due to all the broken mains.

I think the '83 front had a good snow pack to keep the air from moderating. I don't remember the '89 front as well.

[Iceresistance]

Even Joe Bastardi is stumped on why the models torch like crazy despite the MJO favoring cold.

[rwfromkansas]

It is a little concerning how things are not playing out as expected. I don't really want freezing cold if it's only going to be a dry tease, but I also don't want 70s. Ugh.

[orangeblood]

This West Coast onslaught is getting absurd ...latest GFS Op showing 36 inch QPF amounts in Cali over next 2 weeks. As it relates to our weather, my feeling is that it's going to need a MAJOR shakeup in the Northern Hemisphere to break that relentless North Pacific Jet or else the 2nd half of winter is going to look very similar to now. Models are now backing off of it's long term Negative EPO, not a good sign

[bubba hotep]

SSW effects can be rather hard to predict as far as where the cold dumps. I think it was 2012 or 13 Where we had one and everybody got excited and it dumped in Europe .

And the lag can be significant, up to 60-90 days. We don't need a SSW for winter weather but we do need the SPV to relax b/c even with a favorable MJO progression the strong SPV is dominating the NHEM pattern.

[Portastorm]

SSW effects can be rather hard to predict as far as where the cold dumps. I think it was 2012 or 13 Where we had one and everybody got excited and it dumped in Europe .

I've been on this board for over ten years. Only a few times has cold actually happened and aside from Feb 21 they have not been earth shattering. While fun to monitor and watch long range more often then not the long range repeats of 83 and 89 have never happened since. We've seen similar patterns and guidance showing it but it always moderates, goes east or stays up north it seems.

All my opinion. Please rebuttal as warranted.

I've been around this forum for awhile My recollections are merely anecdotal but they are similar to yours. It seemed most of the time when news came out about a SSW, we all got excited and it seldom meant much in terms of winter weather in Texas. I would concur that SSW effects are hard to predict.

[rwfromkansas]

Frustrating that what was a favorable PV is now so strong. Shows that there is a lot that we just don't know about how it all works. Everybody has been so positive about this winter. And it's more iffy now.

[Ntxw]

The North Pacific El Nino firehose type pattern eventually will end. That is not too concerning to me, it is self destructive without an El Nino.

Do want to see improvements in the cryosphere so that when it does happen, eventually, we'll be set up for high latitude blocking.

[Cpv17]

Cosgrove seems to think the Cali onslaught will stop in about 2 weeks.

[wxman57]

Cosgrove seems to think the Cali onslaught will stop in about 2 weeks.

Not that the long-range GFS can be trusted, but it has another big west coast storm approaching by January 21st. That indicates a continuation of strong zonal flow beyond 2 weeks.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

SSW effects can be rather hard to predict as far as where the cold dumps. I think it was 2012 or 13 Where we had one and everybody got excited and it dumped in Europe .

I've been on this board for over ten years. Only a few times has cold actually happened and aside from Feb 21 they have not been earth shattering. While fun to monitor and watch long range more often then not the long range repeats of 83 and 89 have never happened since. We've seen similar patterns and guidance showing it but it always moderates, goes east or stays up north it seems.

All my opinion. Please rebuttal as warranted.

Its fun for us to predict whats to come, and educate ourselves on the patterns, but you're right. Those cold blasts were obviously some of the most epic cold waves we've ever had.

Even for '21, it was unique because of the snowfall it came with and how it locked into place for basically a week. Now this is up for debate and rebuttal, but i dont think '21's temps would be much different from the blast we just had if it wasnt paired with the snowfall we received to keep temps down. It was the perfect combination for cold and precip we have had in our lifetime.
Im curious what charts would look like from the big cold waves of the late 1800's, where SE Tx was locked down with a blizzard.

Edit: Also, first I read about the Cahirs connection in Dec from JB. It starts with a high at 70N and 70E, which is popping up in the long range. He says 15 days later it leads to a block over Greenland, then another 15 days in leads to a block in Alaska. Watching to see if this plays out. Again, it's in the long range though

[bubba hotep]

Cosgrove seems to think the Cali onslaught will stop in about 2 weeks.

Not that the long-range GFS can be trusted, but it has another big west coast storm approaching by January 21st. That indicates a continuation of strong zonal flow beyond 2 weeks.

Ensembles look to favor a reload of this pattern with another poleward shifted NPAC jet extension, possibly in Weeks 3-4. That might be the nail in the coffin, as it would take another couple of weeks for that to cycle. So maybe we need to start looking beyond mid-Feb for a winter wx pattern lol

[Edwards Limestone]

winter cancel