Texas Winter 2022-2023
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Hurricane hunters flying out into the storm crashing into the west coast? Wtf man that’s wild!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
harp wrote:What’s he saying?
It’s a very long read and I’ll admit, I was too lazy to read all of it so I just skimmed through it but it sounds like to me he’s seeing a decent chance for an SSW and late Jan and February a return to colder weather but he doesn’t know specific locations this far out.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I just had a flashback to January 2021, it was more mild and warm, 70s was more common. Then came February 2021 and y'all know how that went . . .
Could this have the February 2021 repeat? Doubtful, but the pattern setup is similar to what happened nearly 2 years ago.
Could this have the February 2021 repeat? Doubtful, but the pattern setup is similar to what happened nearly 2 years ago.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Cpv17 wrote:Hurricane hunters flying out into the storm crashing into the west coast? Wtf man that’s wild!
[youtube]https://youtu.be/oxJUToUM8ro[/youtube]
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
SSW effects can be rather hard to predict as far as where the cold dumps. I think it was 2012 or 13 Where we had one and everybody got excited and it dumped in Europe .
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Quixotic wrote:SSW effects can be rather hard to predict as far as where the cold dumps. I think it was 2012 or 13 Where we had one and everybody got excited and it dumped in Europe .
I've been on this board for over ten years. Only a few times has cold actually happened and aside from Feb 21 they have not been earth shattering. While fun to monitor and watch long range more often then not the long range repeats of 83 and 89 have never happened since. We've seen similar patterns and guidance showing it but it always moderates, goes east or stays up north it seems.
All my opinion. Please rebuttal as warranted.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
HockeyTx82 wrote:Quixotic wrote:SSW effects can be rather hard to predict as far as where the cold dumps. I think it was 2012 or 13 Where we had one and everybody got excited and it dumped in Europe .
I've been on this board for over ten years. Only a few times has cold actually happened and aside from Feb 21 they have not been earth shattering. While fun to monitor and watch long range more often then not the long range repeats of 83 and 89 have never happened since. We've seen similar patterns and guidance showing it but it always moderates, goes east or stays up north it seems.
All my opinion. Please rebuttal as warranted.
I wonder what the snowpack was in 83 and 89 because that plays a huge role in moderation.
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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Cpv17 wrote:I wonder what the snowpack was in 83 and 89 because that plays a huge role in moderation.
I was forecasting for Houston back in 1983. Had a former classmate working for a company in Oklahoma City at the time. I remember the cold air sank slowly southward down the Plains, providing a decent snow coverage. The front seemed to sit just north of the Red River for a while. We had very nice weather here in SE TX, but it was bitterly cold in Oklahoma. The front started moving quickly southward and we were in a deep freeze for 4-5 days. So many homes had burst pipes. Water mains were broken everywhere. There was no water pressure for days due to all the broken mains.
I think the '83 front had a good snow pack to keep the air from moderating. I don't remember the '89 front as well.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Even Joe Bastardi is stumped on why the models torch like crazy despite the MJO favoring cold.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
It is a little concerning how things are not playing out as expected. I don't really want freezing cold if it's only going to be a dry tease, but I also don't want 70s. Ugh.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
This West Coast onslaught is getting absurd
...latest GFS Op showing 36 inch QPF amounts in Cali over next 2 weeks. As it relates to our weather, my feeling is that it's going to need a MAJOR shakeup in the Northern Hemisphere to break that relentless North Pacific Jet or else the 2nd half of winter is going to look very similar to now. Models are now backing off of it's long term Negative EPO, not a good sign



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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Quixotic wrote:SSW effects can be rather hard to predict as far as where the cold dumps. I think it was 2012 or 13 Where we had one and everybody got excited and it dumped in Europe .
And the lag can be significant, up to 60-90 days. We don't need a SSW for winter weather but we do need the SPV to relax b/c even with a favorable MJO progression the strong SPV is dominating the NHEM pattern.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
HockeyTx82 wrote:Quixotic wrote:SSW effects can be rather hard to predict as far as where the cold dumps. I think it was 2012 or 13 Where we had one and everybody got excited and it dumped in Europe .
I've been on this board for over ten years. Only a few times has cold actually happened and aside from Feb 21 they have not been earth shattering. While fun to monitor and watch long range more often then not the long range repeats of 83 and 89 have never happened since. We've seen similar patterns and guidance showing it but it always moderates, goes east or stays up north it seems.
All my opinion. Please rebuttal as warranted.
I've been around this forum for awhile

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Frustrating that what was a favorable PV is now so strong. Shows that there is a lot that we just don't know about how it all works. Everybody has been so positive about this winter. And it's more iffy now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
The North Pacific El Nino firehose type pattern eventually will end. That is not too concerning to me, it is self destructive without an El Nino.
Do want to see improvements in the cryosphere so that when it does happen, eventually, we'll be set up for high latitude blocking.
Do want to see improvements in the cryosphere so that when it does happen, eventually, we'll be set up for high latitude blocking.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Cosgrove seems to think the Cali onslaught will stop in about 2 weeks.
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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Cpv17 wrote:Cosgrove seems to think the Cali onslaught will stop in about 2 weeks.
Not that the long-range GFS can be trusted, but it has another big west coast storm approaching by January 21st. That indicates a continuation of strong zonal flow beyond 2 weeks.
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- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
HockeyTx82 wrote:Quixotic wrote:SSW effects can be rather hard to predict as far as where the cold dumps. I think it was 2012 or 13 Where we had one and everybody got excited and it dumped in Europe .
I've been on this board for over ten years. Only a few times has cold actually happened and aside from Feb 21 they have not been earth shattering. While fun to monitor and watch long range more often then not the long range repeats of 83 and 89 have never happened since. We've seen similar patterns and guidance showing it but it always moderates, goes east or stays up north it seems.
All my opinion. Please rebuttal as warranted.
Its fun for us to predict whats to come, and educate ourselves on the patterns, but you're right. Those cold blasts were obviously some of the most epic cold waves we've ever had.
Even for '21, it was unique because of the snowfall it came with and how it locked into place for basically a week. Now this is up for debate and rebuttal, but i dont think '21's temps would be much different from the blast we just had if it wasnt paired with the snowfall we received to keep temps down. It was the perfect combination for cold and precip we have had in our lifetime.
Im curious what charts would look like from the big cold waves of the late 1800's, where SE Tx was locked down with a blizzard.
Edit: Also, first I read about the Cahirs connection in Dec from JB. It starts with a high at 70N and 70E, which is popping up in the long range. He says 15 days later it leads to a block over Greenland, then another 15 days in leads to a block in Alaska. Watching to see if this plays out. Again, it's in the long range though
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
wxman57 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Cosgrove seems to think the Cali onslaught will stop in about 2 weeks.
Not that the long-range GFS can be trusted, but it has another big west coast storm approaching by January 21st. That indicates a continuation of strong zonal flow beyond 2 weeks.
Ensembles look to favor a reload of this pattern with another poleward shifted NPAC jet extension, possibly in Weeks 3-4. That might be the nail in the coffin, as it would take another couple of weeks for that to cycle. So maybe we need to start looking beyond mid-Feb for a winter wx pattern lol
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
winter cancel 

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The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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