Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Increasing number of Euro Ensembles are showing a true SSW in February, someone named Mark Margavage (AKA MeteoMark) has confirmed that trend on Twitter.

The question was never is there going to be a significant warming event, it was always there. For a period of time the usual suspicions (during a mild period) was will it be enough to effect the AO and troposphere alongside who feels that effect.

But noted again, it is a bottom up to top down. The AO has mostly been negative this winter, what we want to do is tank it and or sustain it for when the Pacific becomes favorable.

[Cpv17]

Increasing number of Euro Ensembles are showing a true SSW in February, someone named Mark Margavage (AKA MeteoMark) has confirmed that trend on Twitter.

I read his Twitter posts as well.

[gto67]

I just read up on a SSW, help me understand what effects it has on our weather pattern and by what I read it only happens six times in a decade in Northern Hemisphere.

[bubba hotep]

I just read up on a SSW, help me understand what effects it has on our weather pattern and by what I read it only happens six times in a decade in Northern Hemisphere.

A SSW event disrupts the SPV. A strong SPV favors a poleward shifted and zonal polar jet. Once the SPV is disrupted by a SSW event, that disruption can propagate from the stratosphere down to the troposphere. This disruption in the flow can cause the polar jet to shift equatorward and become more amped (favoring blocking). However, we don't need a true SSW event to have an impact on our weather, but we do need the SPV to weaken significantly from its current state so that the NPAC jet can relax and shift equatorward.

Also, a February SSW probably has a larger impact on Spring weather than it does on Winter weather for Texas; it might be too late.

[Iceresistance]

I just read up on a SSW, help me understand what effects it has on our weather pattern and by what I read it only happens six times in a decade in Northern Hemisphere.

A SSW event disrupts the SPV. A strong SPV favors a poleward shifted and zonal polar jet. Once the SPV is disrupted by a SSW event, that disruption can propagate from the stratosphere down to the troposphere. This disruption in the flow can cause the polar jet to shift equatorward and become more amped (favoring blocking). However, we don't need a true SSW event to have an impact on our weather, but we do need the SPV to weaken significantly from its current state so that the NPAC jet can relax and shift equatorward.

Also, a February SSW probably has a larger impact on Spring weather than it does on Winter weather for Texas; it might be too late.

The models are still insisting on the SSW in January though, even though the one in February looks more likely.

[Cpv17]

Winter is far from over. Still have a good 2 months left to get some wintry precipitation, even down here in southeast TX. Probably 2 1/2 months for you folks in DFW. La Nina's do this up and down weather pattern. They’re prone to extremes one way or the other. I definitely expect a return to some cold late January into February. Question I have is, how long into February does it last?

[Ntxw]

I just read up on a SSW, help me understand what effects it has on our weather pattern and by what I read it only happens six times in a decade in Northern Hemisphere.

A SSW event disrupts the SPV. A strong SPV favors a poleward shifted and zonal polar jet. Once the SPV is disrupted by a SSW event, that disruption can propagate from the stratosphere down to the troposphere. This disruption in the flow can cause the polar jet to shift equatorward and become more amped (favoring blocking). However, we don't need a true SSW event to have an impact on our weather, but we do need the SPV to weaken significantly from its current state so that the NPAC jet can relax and shift equatorward.

Also, a February SSW probably has a larger impact on Spring weather than it does on Winter weather for Texas; it might be too late.

The models are still insisting on the SSW in January though, even though the one in February looks more likely.

There is always a final warming that sometimes occurs in February, sometimes in March, and sometimes in April. The next warming, if it occurs is still a mid winter warming event.

While we are discussing SSW or SSWE this really isn't the main piece, only complimentary. We don't need it, only to amplify the cyclical pattern we have seen since October.

[Ntxw]

CFSv2 is even more dug in now that the East Pacific, off the west coast pattern will flip 180. The next outbreak will be centered West US-Central US with a stout SE ridge.

[Cpv17]

A SSW event disrupts the SPV. A strong SPV favors a poleward shifted and zonal polar jet. Once the SPV is disrupted by a SSW event, that disruption can propagate from the stratosphere down to the troposphere. This disruption in the flow can cause the polar jet to shift equatorward and become more amped (favoring blocking). However, we don't need a true SSW event to have an impact on our weather, but we do need the SPV to weaken significantly from its current state so that the NPAC jet can relax and shift equatorward.

Also, a February SSW probably has a larger impact on Spring weather than it does on Winter weather for Texas; it might be too late.

The models are still insisting on the SSW in January though, even though the one in February looks more likely.

There is always a final warming that sometimes occurs in February, sometimes in March, and sometimes in April. The next warming, if it occurs is still a mid winter warming event.

While we are discussing SSW or SSWE this really isn't the main piece, only complimentary. We don't need it, only to amplify the cyclical pattern we have seen since October.

Yeah. We didn’t need it to get what we just got in December.

[Cpv17]

CFSv2 is even more dug in now that the East Pacific, off the west coast pattern will flip 180. The next outbreak will be centered West US-Central US with a stout SE ridge.

So in other words, about a -1 deviation PNA?

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1611377333079887875




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1611145490359554048




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1611379539225235459

[Cpv17]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1611377333079887875?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1611145490359554048?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1611379539225235459?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I’d rather the SSW happen now compared to in February cuz it’ll be too late for my area to cash in on anything in March with the exception of maybe the first 10 days of March. It’ll still be good for you up there in Oklahoma, though.

For me personally, if it happens in February, I’d rather it not happen at all. Don’t wanna waste a bullet for nothing.

[harp]

I guess it comes down to who’s correct on the timing. JB looks like he thinks it will happen earlier if I am reading that correctly.

[Cpv17]

I guess it comes down to who’s correct on the timing. JB looks like he thinks it will happen earlier if I am reading that correctly.

Nah. JB and Eric are talking about two different things.

[Ntxw]

CFSv2 is even more dug in now that the East Pacific, off the west coast pattern will flip 180. The next outbreak will be centered West US-Central US with a stout SE ridge.

So in other words, about a -1 deviation PNA?

Too early to tell but the ridge is centered off the west coast so doesn't appear, at the moment, to be big -PNA. Way out there though and details won't be known this far out.

[Iceresistance]

We were very pessimistic in January 2021, until late January when the GEFS first popped up the -EPO cold for February.

It's in this forum, posted on January 26th, 2021. The Post Number is 2302.
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... start=2300

[Ntxw]

We were very pessimistic in January 2021, until late January when the GEFS first popped up the -EPO cold for February.

It's in this forum, posted on January 26th, 2021. The Post Number is 2302.
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... start=2300

It's only Jan 6th. I mean it's been well advertised first half of January could be a dud. We see how quickly things can change or how beyond 10 day forecasts can adjust.

[Itryatgolf]

The gfs had been hinting at possible ssw or at least warming event. I think now the euro and eps has been hinting at that the reason it's somewhat more believable but the effects don't always happen here. We got fortunate feb 2021 minus the power grid failures to cash in on snow and cold.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1611429345339260930

[HockeyTx82]

Has anyone talked about the potential of a SSW?