Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Cpv17]

The end of the GFS may be starting to show the change

Check out the GEFS. It has that classic horseshoe blocking stretching into the Artic.

[harp]

Larry Cosgrove remains fairly confident in the pattern flip towards the end of the month. He said it should begin to show up on the operational models in about two days. (I asked him)

[harp]

The end of the GFS may be starting to show the change

Check out the GEFS. It has that classic horseshoe blocking stretching into the Artic.

Can you post it?

[Iceresistance]

The end of the GFS may be starting to show the change

Check out the GEFS. It has that classic horseshoe blocking stretching into the Artic.

Also features the ECR.

[Iceresistance]

The end of the GFS may be starting to show the change

6z has a Catastrophic Ice Storm for most of Oklahoma and parts of Texas!


Also, Stratwarm is starting right now over Siberia

[Ntxw]

Still a ways to go yet. Some record warmth today.

However system around ~17th-20th is one to watch. Should usher in some changes, not brutal cold...yet, but a change in the 500mb flow.

ENs generally agree on poleward -EPO ridge connecting after the 25th period.

[orangeblood]

Siberia just recorded their coldest temp since 2002 at -80F, very noteworthy moving forward....

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Siberia just recorded their coldest temp since 2002 at -80F, very noteworthy moving forward....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmIy8G2WQAI0H5F?format=jpg&name=small

I may be the only one on here, but I would like to layer up in my Sitka Arctic gear and experience -90F for a hot two minutes.

[Ntxw]

Siberia just recorded their coldest temp since 2002 at -80F, very noteworthy moving forward....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmIy8G2WQAI0H5F?format=jpg&name=small

I may be the only one on here, but I would like to layer up in my Sitka Arctic gear and experience -90F for a hot two minutes.

Coldest morning may be Friday. Somewhere in the region may reach -85F or more.

[Sambucol]

Siberia just recorded their coldest temp since 2002 at -80F, very noteworthy moving forward....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmIy8G2WQAI0H5F?format=jpg&name=small

I may be the only one on here, but I would like to layer up in my Sitka Arctic gear and experience -90F for a hot two minutes.

You’re not alone. Me too!

[Iceresistance]

Siberia just recorded their coldest temp since 2002 at -80F, very noteworthy moving forward....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmIy8G2WQAI0H5F?format=jpg&name=small

I may be the only one on here, but I would like to layer up in my Sitka Arctic gear and experience -90F for a hot two minutes.

You’re not alone. Me too!

I would, but I don't want to because I would get frostbite in under 5 minutes if I'm not careful!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I may be the only one on here, but I would like to layer up in my Sitka Arctic gear and experience -90F for a hot two minutes.

You’re not alone. Me too!

I would, but I don't want to because I would get frostbite in under 5 minutes if I'm not careful!

Not with the hunting and backcountry skiing gear I have. You'd be toasty and would want to unravel, but you can't.

[Ntxw]

MSLP in the high Arctic has been trending towards cold delivery. As the period comes into view will likely see it increase in magnitude. Connect the Pacific ridge with it and we'll go -EPO.

[gpsnowman]

Already 77 at the airport. Record high is 83 today with good chance to tie or break it. Yuck. Tomorrow will feel downright cold with strong north winds and temps in the 50s.

[Ntxw]

Feeling good about it all. Really good to see the guidance follow through to the persistent minds i.e. Larry Cosgrove.

[Ntxw]

If this plays out with deep TPV settling over North America, source region will be exceptionally cold to tap from.

[bubba hotep]

This is a legit 5-day mean cold look

[rwfromkansas]

This is a legit 5-day mean cold look

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023011112/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

I like that it's based in the west/central region. But, that usually means maybe 2 days there and then it rapidly moves east.

[Ntxw]

This is a legit 5-day mean cold look

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023011112/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

I like that it's based in the west/central region. But, that usually means maybe 2 days there and then it rapidly moves east.

Being a means it's giving probability that more members are trending colder/coming into view. I expect the OPs to join in the coming days.

[Ntxw]

EPS trough isn't ideal as GEFS (long range) but the Pacific changes are pretty good. Lots of ridging in the Northeast Pacific region. Things are definitely not looking bleak and arrow may be pointing at another severe outbreak of cold, should it stand.