Texas Winter 2022-2023

Winter Weather Discussion

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Tammie
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4881 Postby Tammie » Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:31 am

The FW NWS has changed their tune this morning
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4882 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jan 29, 2023 7:07 am

Same here … NWS Austin/San Antonio is all in on the NAM. Ice storm cometh (at least for the Hill Country)!
:eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4883 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 29, 2023 7:32 am

Tammie wrote:The FW NWS has changed their tune this morning
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1


Now that’s what you call an About Face! Would expect WSWs to be issued at some point today…a blend of short range guidance looks like best combo of sub freezing temps and highest QPF puts DFW right in the bullseye unfortunately. Likely meeting Ice Storm Warning criteria it appears
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4884 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Jan 29, 2023 7:55 am

I'm still holding out hope for sleet or snow as the week progresses. Also I anticipate being home with my daughter Tuesday and Wednesday due to school cancellations.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4885 Postby TropicalTundra » Sun Jan 29, 2023 8:45 am

Both NAM and HRRR would be bad scenarios especially during rush hour. Not many people likely expecting it too. It’s going to get bad and fast
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4886 Postby Haris » Sun Jan 29, 2023 8:58 am

Image
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4887 Postby Gotwood » Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:09 am


Ice storm warning. It’s 39 at my place already apparently about to start getting some rain. Wind howling good.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4888 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:15 am

Gotwood wrote:

Ice storm warning. It’s 39 at my place already apparently about to start getting some rain. Wind howling good.

Yeah the front is blowing through. Got cloudy quick with stong north wind.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4889 Postby Tammie » Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:16 am

Drizzle City up here in Sherman. Kinda surprised it’s starting so soon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4890 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:20 am

Tammie wrote:Drizzle City up here in Sherman. Kinda surprised it’s starting so soon.

Misting like crazy here, I'm very worried about it since it's 22°F outside
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4891 Postby Gotwood » Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:30 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Tammie wrote:Drizzle City up here in Sherman. Kinda surprised it’s starting so soon.

Misting like crazy here, I'm very worried about it since it's 22°F outside

As you should be that’s not a good sign.
Temps are dropping fast here. Very curious to see if we reach freezing or it hovers in the mid 30s until tonight.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4892 Postby Tammie » Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:43 am

Gotwood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Tammie wrote:Drizzle City up here in Sherman. Kinda surprised it’s starting so soon.

Misting like crazy here, I'm very worried about it since it's 22°F outside

As you should be that’s not a good sign.
Temps are dropping fast here. Very curious to see if we reach freezing or it hovers in the mid 30s until tonight.


That’s what I was thinking too. Where are you located?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4893 Postby Gotwood » Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:45 am

Tammie wrote:
Gotwood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Misting like crazy here, I'm very worried about it since it's 22°F outside

As you should be that’s not a good sign.
Temps are dropping fast here. Very curious to see if we reach freezing or it hovers in the mid 30s until tonight.


That’s what I was thinking too. Where are you located?

I’m in Brock, SW Parker county.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4894 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 29, 2023 10:05 am

Front has cleared DFW and we will fall the rest of today towards freezing. Most of Oklahoma is in the low to mid 20s and freezing from WF to Abilene or just slightly east of there.

NAM has a little deeper cold and sleet for the metroplex while frzng rain threat increases from Waco to Austin.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4895 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Jan 29, 2023 10:08 am

NBM has gone wild. 2.5" ice for Abilene, 1" for NW DFW, 0.5" for DFW and 0.25" east of DFW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4896 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 29, 2023 10:16 am

I can confirm that I have a thin glaze of Ice outside right now.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4897 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 29, 2023 10:24 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:NBM has gone wild. 2.5" ice for Abilene, 1" for NW DFW, 0.5" for DFW and 0.25" east of DFW.

Can I see it?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4898 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 29, 2023 10:25 am

Trends are definitely not headed in the right direction based on latest runs of both HRRR extended and NBM from the HC into northern sections of TX.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4899 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 29, 2023 10:32 am

orangeblood wrote:
Tammie wrote:The FW NWS has changed their tune this morning
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1


Now that’s what you call an About Face! Would expect WSWs to be issued at some point today…a blend of short range guidance looks like best combo of sub freezing temps and highest QPF puts DFW right in the bullseye unfortunately. Likely meeting Ice Storm Warning criteria it appears


Being potential impacts and also multi-day and little lead time at this juncture, WSWs now would be a wise decision. Last thing you want is a bunch of folks going out to prepare for it tomorrow.

Coverage of any ice from WPC probability.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4900 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 29, 2023 10:45 am

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Tammie wrote:The FW NWS has changed their tune this morning
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1


Now that’s what you call an About Face! Would expect WSWs to be issued at some point today…a blend of short range guidance looks like best combo of sub freezing temps and highest QPF puts DFW right in the bullseye unfortunately. Likely meeting Ice Storm Warning criteria it appears


Being potential impacts and also multi-day and little lead time at this juncture, WSWs now would be a wise decision. Last thing you want is a bunch of folks going out to prepare for it tomorrow.

Coverage of any ice from WPC probability.

https://i.imgur.com/I2xswHn.gif


Yep, most friends/family have no clue about this due to the botched forecasts from local outlets and sorry, but even NWS office. Most people just glance at a forecast over the next 5 days and move on…when you put out a mid 50s forecast for Monday-Wednesday people anchor it and never look back. A mid 30s with possible frozen precip gets their attention and people pay attention more regularly.

Unfortunately it wasn’t done until now, so agreed get the word out quickly/WSW asap is best course IMO
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