Texas Winter 2022-2023

[orangeblood]

I still think those Wednesday highs are too cold, but we shall see. A lot of low 40's showing up across Panhandle on Wed afternoon so no question about the moderation/"warming" trend at that point. Might be keeping temps just below freezing as a result of sleet accumulation. That would spare DFW the worst onslaught of freezing rain if that's off/too cold. Fingers crossed for some family up there. Definitely not rooting for the extreme.

Check out the surface wind field though...Panhandle warming due to downsloping west wind direction, North Texas maintains cold advection out of the North thru Thursday. It's relentless and what makes this cold air pocket unique/something you don't see that often. The cold dome is literally stuck over the state and doesn't erode until west wind kicks in on Friday

Temperature inversion. They can be stubborn. You can recall a couple days ago even with the change in tune, a little below freezing was the idea. Yet we have been in the danger range 27-28 all day. That's not a little bit of freezing temps.

Yep, I'm still puzzled by the continued chasing of temps by some of these forecast offices/news outlets. Stop chasing and using computer output/start putting a little human touch into these forecasts and get out ahead of it....cut by 2-3 Deg F at least within this established cold dome and go from there!

[Ntxw]

Looks like maybe things are winding down a bit? The steady fetch of convection to the SW of the metroplex has dried up to a degree. Folks W, NW, N, and NE of the metroplex still have a few hours for this wave to pass.

Are we thinking freezing drizzle takes over for a while before the big event or all dry and a chance for some drying/sublimation?

It should wind down some. FW put out a good discussion of what expect and sounds pretty well done. 900-800mb front placement tomorrow will determine the 'zone'. Today it was a little NW of the immediate core of DFW through the NW areas. Tomorrow a little further south and east.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
317 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 139 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/
/This Afternoon through Wednesday/

Our winter storm is unfolding this afternoon with areas of
freezing rain and thunderstorms with heavy sleet ongoing across
parts of North Texas. The activity this afternoon is tied to a
weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft and strong 900-800 mb
frontogenesis across the northwest half of the CWA. Observed and
forecast soundings indicate that around 400 J/kg of instability is
available to parcels atop the frontal inversion. With strong
ascent, this is supporting thunderstorms across a good portion of
the region. Heavy sleet has been reported in many areas and this
trend will continue through the afternoon. The band of ascent will
make steady progress north and east by evening and we should see a
gradual shift eastward to the precipitation. Temperatures will
remain in the mid/upper 20s which means that heavy freezing rain
and sleet will quickly turn to ice on area bridges and overpasses.
Untreated surface roads may also become icy in a short period of
time. As the precipitation shifts east and diminishes in intensity
this evening, we`ll likely see a little lull in overall activity,
but this should be short lived as we remain within a broad area of
ascent through the overnight hours. Light freezing rain should
develop again after midnight and spread northward through the
morning hours. With little change in the atmospheric profile
expected, pockets of convection will again be possible during the
day Tuesday, although the axis of heaviest precipitation may shift
a bit to the southeast along the 900-800 mb front. Widespread
freezing rain/sleet is expected again Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Total ice accumulations still look like they`ll be around 1/4" for
most areas (sleet is excluded from ice accums - it`s counted as
snow) although some pockets of heavier ice accumulations will be
possible through early Wednesday. Sleet accumulations could
approach 1" in the heaviest bursts, however most of this has been
around 1/4-1/2" before melting some.

We`ll be extending the Winter Storm Warning through midday
Wednesday with this issuance.

Dunn

[orangeblood]

Temp dropping pretty rapidly now at 24. Did not expect this.

Thought we would be stable.

Continued strong cold advection from the north, now flowing over a frozen ground from the precip! It becomes a feedback loop under these temp inversions that is difficult to model

[orangeblood]

Looks like maybe things are winding down a bit? The steady fetch of convection to the SW of the metroplex has dried up to a degree. Folks W, NW, N, and NE of the metroplex still have a few hours for this wave to pass.

Are we thinking freezing drizzle takes over for a while before the big event or all dry and a chance for some drying/sublimation?

It should wind down some. FW put out a good discussion of what expect and sounds pretty well done. 900-800mb front placement tomorrow will determine the 'zone'. Today it was a little NW of the immediate core of DFW through the NW areas. Tomorrow a little further south and east.

Probably not the only time they'll extend this Warning...maybe another 12-24 hrs to go!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Oh NWS and using models to forecast. Temp in Tyler has held at 32 all day, but latest update actually increased the afternoon high today to 36 from 35. This almost 24hour freeze before the big event starts will be very impactful even if temps are borderline.

[orangeblood]

Hey!! Look who showed up to the party…our old buddy Mr GFS. Although, I wouldn’t call this being fashionable late by any stretch

[cstrunk]

Oh NWS and using models to forecast. Temp in Tyler has held at 32 all day, but latest update actually increased the afternoon high today to 36 from 35. This almost 24hour freeze before the big event starts will be very impactful even if temps are borderline.

Yeah SHV has been behind all event long so far. When I woke up today the predicted high for Longview was 42F. Later this morning they dropped it to 39F. It's currently 36F at the Longview airport (a good bit SE of town) and 34F at my house (north side of town). With the continued CAA over areas that are now sleet-covered to the north/northwest... there's a pretty good chance we end up colder than the 34F predicted low for tonight and 36F predicted high for tomorrow...

[bubba hotep]

[rwfromkansas]

Well now my temp is jumping to 27.

Weird.

[Ntxw]

Southeast US won't notice a thing. 50s/60s/70s the whole way from New Orleans to Atlanta...what cold air?

[Ralph's Weather]

Yeah SHV has been behind all event long so far. When I woke up today the predicted high for Longview was 42F. Later this morning they dropped it to 39F. It's currently 36F at the Longview airport (a good bit SE of town) and 34F at my house (north side of town). With the continued CAA over areas that are now sleet-covered to the north/northwest... there's a pretty good chance we end up colder than the 34F predicted low for tonight and 36F predicted high for tomorrow...

They have Lindale at 31/33 for tomorrow, a couple degrees lower and impacts are very different on the roads.

[harp]

Southeast US won't notice a thing. 50s/60s/70s the whole way from New Orleans to Atlanta...what cold air?

https://i.imgur.com/maeIdmu.png

Tell me about it!! I hit 80 today at my house. It just wasn’t our turn. Hopefully, we have another shot before winter is over. That damned SE ridge….

[Cerlin]

Got a pretty substantial glaze of ice and sleet at the National Weather Center so far!

[gpsnowman]

What time are we looking at the next round? Thinking of setting the alarm if it comes early enough.
BTW got a nice little flizzard right now.

[Iceresistance]

The High for me was only 21°F

[orangeblood]

What time are we looking at the next round? Thinking of setting the alarm if it comes early enough.
BTW got a nice little flizzard right now.

Looks like around 6-7am widespread showers should start moving thru Metroplex from the southwest

[gpsnowman]

What time are we looking at the next round? Thinking of setting the alarm if it comes early enough.
BTW got a nice little flizzard right now.

Looks like around 6-7am widespread showers should start moving thru Metroplex from the southwest

Gracias. 6am it is then. The daughter and I both have an off day.

[txtwister78]

Wow. Another insane model output. Crippling freezing rain accumulations per the RAP extended from SA to Austin corridor points east of I-35 across central TX. No question regardless of whether these are correct or not (RAP, RGEM), main event looks to be tomorrow late afternoon stretching into Wednesday morning.

[Iceresistance]

My School is virtual today, and so are Bethel, Shawnee, and Asher Schools. Who decided that today was a good day to be in-person.

[Edwards Limestone]

Wow. Another insane model output. Crippling freezing rain accumulations per the RAP extended from SA to Austin corridor points east of I-35 across central TX. No question regardless of whether these are correct or not (RAP, RGEM), main event looks to be tomorrow late afternoon stretching into Wednesday morning.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2023013021/051/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Looking similar to that 18z HRRR run but worse....look out