DallasAg wrote:Looks like maybe things are winding down a bit? The steady fetch of convection to the SW of the metroplex has dried up to a degree. Folks W, NW, N, and NE of the metroplex still have a few hours for this wave to pass.
Are we thinking freezing drizzle takes over for a while before the big event or all dry and a chance for some drying/sublimation?
It should wind down some. FW put out a good discussion of what expect and sounds pretty well done. 900-800mb front placement tomorrow will determine the 'zone'. Today it was a little NW of the immediate core of DFW through the NW areas. Tomorrow a little further south and east.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
317 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023
...New Long Term...
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 139 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/
/This Afternoon through Wednesday/
Our winter storm is unfolding this afternoon with areas of
freezing rain and thunderstorms with heavy sleet ongoing across
parts of North Texas. The activity this afternoon is tied to a
weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft and strong 900-800 mb
frontogenesis across the northwest half of the CWA. Observed and
forecast soundings indicate that around 400 J/kg of instability is
available to parcels atop the frontal inversion. With strong
ascent, this is supporting thunderstorms across a good portion of
the region. Heavy sleet has been reported in many areas and this
trend will continue through the afternoon. The band of ascent will
make steady progress north and east by evening and we should see a
gradual shift eastward to the precipitation. Temperatures will
remain in the mid/upper 20s which means that heavy freezing rain
and sleet will quickly turn to ice on area bridges and overpasses.
Untreated surface roads may also become icy in a short period of
time. As the precipitation shifts east and diminishes in intensity
this evening, we`ll likely see a little lull in overall activity,
but this should be short lived as we remain within a broad area of
ascent through the overnight hours. Light freezing rain should
develop again after midnight and spread northward through the
morning hours. With little change in the atmospheric profile
expected, pockets of convection will again be possible during the
day Tuesday, although the axis of heaviest precipitation may shift
a bit to the southeast along the 900-800 mb front. Widespread
freezing rain/sleet is expected again Tuesday night into
Wednesday.
Total ice accumulations still look like they`ll be around 1/4" for
most areas (sleet is excluded from ice accums - it`s counted as
snow) although some pockets of heavier ice accumulations will be
possible through early Wednesday. Sleet accumulations could
approach 1" in the heaviest bursts, however most of this has been
around 1/4-1/2" before melting some.
We`ll be extending the Winter Storm Warning through midday
Wednesday with this issuance.
Dunn