Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ralph's Weather]

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/winter/StormTotalIceWeb.jpg

Praying this is wrong.

That is a wild map, but well supported by the models.

[Iceresistance]

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/winter/StormTotalIceWeb.jpg

Praying this is wrong.

Holy crap! That meets the criteria for an Ice Storm Warning!

NWS-Norman has my area for up to .25 inch of Ice.

[txtwister78]

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/winter/StormTotalIceWeb.jpg

Praying this is wrong.

Think it is in terms of precip type. They updated their graphic this morning at 8 AM to account for the trends regarding precip type/sleet accumulation. I'm sure they'll have another update later this afternoon though for tomorrow beyond.

[orangeblood]

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/winter/StormTotalIceWeb.jpg

Praying this is wrong.

Think it is in terms of precip type. They updated their graphic this morning at 8 AM to account for the trends regarding precip type/sleet accumulation. I'm sure they'll have another update later this afternoon though for tomorrow beyond.

Don’t think they’ll need to update much, latest extended HRRR which coincides with NAM….brings over an 1” plus QPF over wide swath. Trying hard to erode freezing temps but really slow to do so and probably still too fast given past performance

[cheezyWXguy]

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/winter/StormTotalIceWeb.jpg

Praying this is wrong.

That is a wild map, but well supported by the models.

What does it show? When I clicked on it, the map was blank

[txtwister78]

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/winter/StormTotalIceWeb.jpg

Praying this is wrong.

Think it is in terms of precip type. They updated their graphic this morning at 8 AM to account for the trends regarding precip type/sleet accumulation. I'm sure they'll have another update later this afternoon though for tomorrow beyond.

Don’t think they’ll need to update much, latest extended HRRR which coincides with NAM….brings over an 1” plus QPF over wide swath. Trying hard to erode freezing temps but really slow to do so and probably still too fast given past performance

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/frzr_total/1675188000/1675332000-16uTd05WORg.png

I don't know if that's all going to be freezing rain though based on the HRRR algorithm fail this morning. NAM probably has a better handle regarding that and vastly different with the freezing rain accumulations into Wed afternoon (has more sleet for DFW again). Looks like HRRR is setting up for another round of convective sleet to me as this ULL begins to eject out. Probably why these freezing rain accumulations are being "overdone" a bit further north in certain spots compared to some of the other guidance.

[Iceresistance]

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/winter/StormTotalIceWeb.jpg

Praying this is wrong.

That is a wild map, but well supported by the models.

What does it show? When I clicked on it, the map was blank

.5 to .6 inches of Ice across DFW.

[orangeblood]

Think it is in terms of precip type. They updated their graphic this morning at 8 AM to account for the trends regarding precip type/sleet accumulation. I'm sure they'll have another update later this afternoon though for tomorrow beyond.

Don’t think they’ll need to update much, latest extended HRRR which coincides with NAM….brings over an 1” plus QPF over wide swath. Trying hard to erode freezing temps but really slow to do so and probably still too fast given past performance

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/frzr_total/1675188000/1675332000-16uTd05WORg.png

I don't know if that's all going to be freezing rain though based on the HRRR algorithm fail this morning. NAM probably has a better handle regarding that and vastly different with the freezing rain accumulations into Wed afternoon (has more sleet for DFW again). Looks like HRRR is setting up for another round of convective sleet to me as this ULL begins to eject out. Probably why these freezing rain accumulations are being "overdone" a bit further north in certain spots compared to some of the other guidance.

Hope so but my worry is the 850mb temps look warmer compared to this mornings round. They were 2-5 C across DFW today, looking like 6-8 C tomorrow

[bubba hotep]

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/winter/StormTotalIceWeb.jpg

Praying this is wrong.

Think it is in terms of precip type. They updated their graphic this morning at 8 AM to account for the trends regarding precip type/sleet accumulation. I'm sure they'll have another update later this afternoon though for tomorrow beyond.

Don’t think they’ll need to update much, latest extended HRRR which coincides with NAM….brings over an 1” plus QPF over wide swath. Trying hard to erode freezing temps but really slow to do so and probably still too fast given past performance

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/frzr_total/1675188000/1675332000-16uTd05WORg.png

In addition to the temp timing, all of these batches of QPF have come in faster than the models showed. So that also favors more QPF during the sub-freezing temp window.

[Ralph's Weather]

Here in Lindale not too much ice yet but power keep flashing off. HRRR has been bad on temps today so the eastern extend will be greater than shown.

[EnnisTx]

Think it is in terms of precip type. They updated their graphic this morning at 8 AM to account for the trends regarding precip type/sleet accumulation. I'm sure they'll have another update later this afternoon though for tomorrow beyond.

Don’t think they’ll need to update much, latest extended HRRR which coincides with NAM….brings over an 1” plus QPF over wide swath. Trying hard to erode freezing temps but really slow to do so and probably still too fast given past performance

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/frzr_total/1675188000/1675332000-16uTd05WORg.png

In addition to the temp timing, all of these batches of QPF have come in faster than the models showed. So that also favors more QPF during the sub-freezing temp window.

Thoughts on the system pulling in colder air for a brief window of snow over North Texas?

[txtwister78]

Don’t think they’ll need to update much, latest extended HRRR which coincides with NAM….brings over an 1” plus QPF over wide swath. Trying hard to erode freezing temps but really slow to do so and probably still too fast given past performance

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/frzr_total/1675188000/1675332000-16uTd05WORg.png

In addition to the temp timing, all of these batches of QPF have come in faster than the models showed. So that also favors more QPF during the sub-freezing temp window.

Thoughts on the system pulling in colder air for a brief window of snow over North Texas?

I think to Orangeblood's point regarding 850 temps that profile (snow) is definitely a no go for most areas unfortunately with this particular setup. Mainly far West TX/ Panhandle region best odds for some snow as it stands right now.

[rwfromkansas]

Got a text they are replacing WSW with ice storm warning tomorrow. Uh oh.

[txtwister78]

 https://twitter.com/iembot_fwd/status/1620516354129559559

[Ntxw]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
216 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

TXZ100>103-115>118-129>133-141-010615-
/O.NEW.KFWD.IS.W.0001.230201T1200Z-230202T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KFWD.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230201T1200Z/
Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-
Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Comanche-
Including the cities of Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound,
Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth,
Arlington, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville, Dublin,
Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson,
Comanche, and De Leon
216 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Areas of light freezing rain and sleet through tonight
transitioning to mainly freezing rain on Wednesday. Total ice
accumulations up to 1/2 inch.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Texas.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 6 AM CST Wednesday.
For the Ice Storm Warning, from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST
Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will worsen through Wednesday. Power
outages and tree damage will become more likely due to
increasing ice accumulation. Travel could be nearly impossible
through Wednesday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.

&&

$$

[rwfromkansas]

Seems they think Dallas will be above freezing. No warning for Dallas.

Nevermind…oops.

[WinterMax]

Looks like the frozen mess starts up again in Dallas at about 3pm to 7 or 8 tonight, dang, you guys cashed in. I hope not too many mashups on the interstates. Gods speed !!

[txtwister78]

Seems they think Dallas will be above freezing. No warning for Dallas.

Dallas County itself remains under Winter Storm Warning (extended)

[Ntxw]

Seems they think Dallas will be above freezing. No warning for Dallas.

Winter storm warnings still in effect for all areas thru Thurs. The ice storm warnings is where they believe the greatest ice accretion will occur and also the longest.

[gboudx]

Seems they think Dallas will be above freezing. No warning for Dallas.

Yesterday, Delkus had a graphic showing the freezing line creeping westward, clearing Rockwall county and bisecting Dallas and Collin counties on Wednesday. Maybe this is what the NWS is seeing too.