2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/crcNJEZ.png
https://i.imgur.com/Dw2A8uO.png
Atlantic MDR is currently warmer than 2020, 2017, near 2005/2010 level.

where it stops nobody freaking knows at this point. it truly is going to be a battle between Atlantic and Enso

I wouldn't look at it as a battle; a key reason El Nino inhibits Atlantic activity is due to wind shear. It doesn't matter how hot the water is there's too much shear.

Why does El Nino increase shear over the Atlantic? Because ocean and atmosphere are coupled. Rising branch in the East Pacific causes upper westerlies over the Atlantic.
Same idea here, warmer MDR/East Atlantic reduces shear because it creates upper easterlies over the Atlantic and reduces shear..

[Steve]

https://i.imgur.com/crcNJEZ.png
https://i.imgur.com/Dw2A8uO.png
Atlantic MDR is currently warmer than 2020, 2017, near 2005/2010 level.

where it stops nobody freaking knows at this point. it truly is going to be a battle between Atlantic and Enso

I wouldn't look at it as a battle; a key reason El Nino inhibits Atlantic activity is due to wind shear. It doesn't matter how hot the water is there's too much shear.

Watch Mark’s video a few posts above if you haven’t. Some of the monthly shear anomalies (+) are focused in the southern Caribbean per the monthly model. Seems if this were to be semi-accurate in the late summer that rather than rampant shear across the Atlantic, if it is suppressed to the south, then areas north and east of that could be hotspots.

[WeatherBoy2000]

where it stops nobody freaking knows at this point. it truly is going to be a battle between Atlantic and Enso

I wouldn't look at it as a battle; a key reason El Nino inhibits Atlantic activity is due to wind shear. It doesn't matter how hot the water is there's too much shear.

Watch Mark’s video a few posts above if you haven’t. Some of the monthly shear anomalies (+) are focused in the southern Caribbean per the monthly model. Seems if this were to be semi-accurate in the late summer that rather than rampant shear across the Atlantic, if it is suppressed to the south, then areas north and east of that could be hotspots.

It could be like 2018 where only the Caribbean is hostile to activity but everywhere else is fine. Although 2018's el nino was weak while this upcoming one is expected to be at least moderate in strength.

[SFLcane]

Unreal...

Warm AMO vs. El Nino

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1651264776855601158

[Monsoonjr99]

where it stops nobody freaking knows at this point. it truly is going to be a battle between Atlantic and Enso

I wouldn't look at it as a battle; a key reason El Nino inhibits Atlantic activity is due to wind shear. It doesn't matter how hot the water is there's too much shear.

Why does El Nino increase shear over the Atlantic? Because ocean and atmosphere are coupled. Rising branch in the East Pacific causes upper westerlies over the Atlantic.
Same idea here, warmer MDR/East Atlantic reduces shear because it creates upper easterlies over the Atlantic and reduces shear..

Perhaps the net effect of the "competition" might end up similar to a warm neutral, except just more OHC for storms to work with. Reminds me of how we measure SSTAs relative to climo normals that are ever changing as the planet warms, yet still remain useful as patterns are relative to each other.

[Yellow Evan]

The warm MDR isn’t going to stop the warm east equatorial Pacific from shearing anything west of 55-60W in the deep tropics.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The warm MDR isn’t going to stop the warm east equatorial Pacific from shearing anything west of 55-60W in the deep tropics.

Yeah I'm still expecting the Caribbean to be a no fly zone for the most part, especially if this is a stronger Niño - that's also why I think activity will rapidly tail off after September. Even many of the long-range climatological models such as the CFS show dry anoms there for the most part (I know TCs are often too small scale for these models to depict but it still provides a general idea). Eastern/Central MDR could be more hospitable though.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1651299085087801382

[cycloneye]

The debate about ENSO /-PDO vs Atlantic ssta's continues. 2008 is mentioned.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1651565831870898178




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1651566573340041216




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1651569932189007872

[cycloneye]

-NAO doing it's thing.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1651673534471499786

[Yellow Evan]

I maintain 2008 is not a serious analog by anyone other than him. The atmospheric response of 2008 was nothing resembling a Nino.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The debate about ENSO /-PDO vs Atlantic ssta's continues. 2008 is mentioned.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1651565831870898178

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1651566573340041216

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1651569932189007872

'08 is not a viable analog in this case. It was a CP-based (modoki?) Niña - yes the Niño 1+2 regions remained warm but 3.4 were very much cold. Unless some radical unexpected change occurs ENSO will ultimately end up nowhere close to '08. As Yellow Evan said I really do not know where that comparison is coming from.

[Ntxw]

The debate about ENSO /-PDO vs Atlantic ssta's continues. 2008 is mentioned.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1651565831870898178

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1651566573340041216

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1651569932189007872

'08 is not a viable analog in this case. It was a CP-based (modoki?) Niña - yes the Niño 1+2 regions remained warm but 3.4 were very much cold. Unless some radical unexpected change occurs ENSO will ultimately end up nowhere close to '08. As Yellow Evan said I really do not know where that comparison is coming from.

https://i.ibb.co/QchfL5P/Cz-Iu-WRf-HY1.png

A snapshot of Atlantic SSTa for 2008 on this date has some similaries, along with the eastern Nino regions being warmer than the western region. However there was not a building Nino, in fact continuation of Nina. 2021 is more analogous with 2008 (thus very similar ACE) than 2023 should be since there is no more Nina in any ENSO region.

[weeniepatrol]

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/kMcO0x3.png

Beautiful structure. Typically see this with only the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/kMcO0x3.png

That's about as good as you're gonna get this time of year. Might actually be a better look than 2017 and 2020 lol. Only recent year I can think of with a more classic look is 2010. Once again ENSO is really the only thing standing in the way of a very active season with a configuration like this.

[Stormybajan]

Pretty confident in saying , 2023 is the third warmest East Atlantic year in the last 53 years on record only behind the 2005 and 2010 Hurricane seasons for the date April 28th, even beating out 2016 and 2017.

[Category5Kaiju]

Pretty confident in saying , 2023 is the third warmest East Atlantic year in the last 53 years on record only behind the 2005 and 2010 Hurricane seasons for the date April 28th, even beating out 2016 and 2017.
https://i.postimg.cc/CL19fZP5/April-28-2023-SST-RESIZED-AGAIN.png
https://i.postimg.cc/NGbWM8xZ/April-28-2005-SST-RESIZED-AGAIN.png
https://i.postimg.cc/mkdq5RDT/April-28-2010-SST-RESIZED-AGAIN.png

Wow. 2005's Canary Current was nowhere near this warm at this point in time, and 2010, while warmer, had a much cooler subtropics.

2023 is just going at it. Arguably the warmest Atlantic we've ever seen the last 30-40 or so years. The sst map even looks like a fiery snake

I guarantee you that if this year were a traditional La Nina year, with that kind of setup, we'd likely see an extremely potent and active season. It's genuinely hard to believe that this is happening in a year expected to go El Nino later though.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Pretty confident in saying , 2023 is the third warmest East Atlantic year in the last 53 years on record only behind the 2005 and 2010 Hurricane seasons for the date April 28th, even beating out 2016 and 2017.
https://i.postimg.cc/CL19fZP5/April-28-2023-SST-RESIZED-AGAIN.png
https://i.postimg.cc/NGbWM8xZ/April-28-2005-SST-RESIZED-AGAIN.png
https://i.postimg.cc/mkdq5RDT/April-28-2010-SST-RESIZED-AGAIN.png

I've honestly never seen the Canary Current that beefed up. 2010 still reigns supreme overall in the actual MDR though, widespread anoms of 2C+ encompassing the entirety of the MDR was absolutely insane. Honestly that season underperformed all things considered; perfect storm with La Niña, inactive EPAC and record warm MDR yet it barely managed to eclipse the hyperactive threshold (166 ACE compared to the 1951-2020 median of 159). Would have expected it to exceed 200+ ACE with ease.

[zzzh]

The problem with 2010 was likely the strong Nina, causing an inactive early season (July and 2/3 of August).