Texas Spring 2023

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1081 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Apr 30, 2023 11:12 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Seeing lots of talk of May being a dud with an Omega block. Uh oh. Early summer?

NAO is taking a nosedive
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1082 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Apr 30, 2023 11:20 am

Iceresistance wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Seeing lots of talk of May being a dud with an Omega block. Uh oh. Early summer?

NAO is taking a nosedive


And that would do what for us? Models look wet overall over the next couple weeks. Don’t think I’m too concerned right now.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1083 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Apr 30, 2023 11:46 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Seeing lots of talk of May being a dud with an Omega block. Uh oh. Early summer?

NAO is taking a nosedive


And that would do what for us? Models look wet overall over the next couple weeks. Don’t think I’m too concerned right now.

-NAO has a Greenland Block, but not a crazy one this time around. (If it was in February, then this would be flooded with nasty cold possibility talking. :lol: )

Also, it appears that the -NAO forces storm systems to dive further south toward us.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1084 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Apr 30, 2023 12:08 pm

A VERY WET signal from the GEFS in the first couple of weeks of May, it is mostly in Central Texas.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1085 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Apr 30, 2023 12:39 pm

AAM is finally rising and forecast to go pretty high, signaling a strong ocean/atmosphere coupling for El Nino may finally be taking place. Bring on the cool, wet May for Texas! Although we will probably see a few warmer and drier days to start May before things get cranking.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1086 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Apr 30, 2023 1:41 pm

bubba hotep wrote:AAM is finally rising and forecast to go pretty high, signaling a strong ocean/atmosphere coupling for El Nino may finally be taking place. Bring on the cool, wet May for Texas! Although we will probably see a few warmer and drier days to start May before things get cranking.

Yeah, I also want to mention that the GEFS has a Severe Weather signal already between May 4th to May 10th and again between May 12th to 15th...
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1087 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Apr 30, 2023 3:29 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:AAM is finally rising and forecast to go pretty high, signaling a strong ocean/atmosphere coupling for El Nino may finally be taking place. Bring on the cool, wet May for Texas! Although we will probably see a few warmer and drier days to start May before things get cranking.

Yeah, I also want to mention that the GEFS has a Severe Weather signal already between May 4th to May 10th and again between May 12th to 15th...


GEFS has a Severe Weather signal


Checks calendar

between May 4th to May 10th and again between May 12th to 15th.


Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1088 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Apr 30, 2023 7:05 pm

NWS-Norman has already tagged Thursday as "Severe Storms possible"
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1089 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Apr 30, 2023 9:04 pm

12 hours ago from the new model.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1652689954206621699


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1090 Postby Iceresistance » Mon May 01, 2023 7:51 am

Oh boy, the NPO is warmer, which means it may force the Omega Block to become favorable for severe storms.

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1652727515889188864


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1091 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 01, 2023 11:52 am

bubba hotep wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Here is what to expect in Texas on May. This from the NWS of Fort Worth.

Image


I'll wager that busts.


CPC already backing off their earlier call.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1092 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 01, 2023 11:53 am

Well, Hello

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1093 Postby EnnisTx » Mon May 01, 2023 12:16 pm



That's a beauty, especially for the area's that really need it. Hopefully it verifies or comes close to it.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1094 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 01, 2023 12:26 pm

2015, is that you?

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1095 Postby EnnisTx » Mon May 01, 2023 1:38 pm




Seems I've seen several references to 2015 with precipitation and severe weather.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1096 Postby Iceresistance » Mon May 01, 2023 1:51 pm



Goodness gracious! That is a LOT of rain!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1097 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon May 01, 2023 2:32 pm

Geez looks rainy. Wow.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1098 Postby Iceresistance » Tue May 02, 2023 9:23 am

Welcome to May

Image
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-05-02-9.20.11-AM.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1099 Postby Iceresistance » Tue May 02, 2023 10:33 am

2015 has been mentioned.

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1653150623640985607




 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1653240244827766786


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1100 Postby Brent » Tue May 02, 2023 10:47 pm

Well I have daily storm chances pretty much after the heat wave Friday and Saturday so I expect things to start ramping up soon on the severe front
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