Texas Spring 2023

[Iceresistance]

Meso low 1 looks to be washing out around San Marcos followed by a new one near Uvalde. Been an odd radar presentation with all the spinning throughout the day in sctx.

Main circulation is SE of Houston

[Edwards Limestone]

Looks like another minimum QPF day in Comal, Blanco and Hays as per usual (relative to coastal plains and western areas that have mostly seen widespread 2"+ totals). Just can't catch a break around here.

Good news is that 1) someone is getting rain somewhere (even here, despite the low totals) 2) it seems like there's much more to come this weekend/next week.

It's weird how the convection has seemed to "wash out" repeatedly over northern Bexar and Comal over the last 12 hours while absolutely drenching areas to the west and east of here. To a lesser extent, that's been the theme all spring in my local area.
I doubt that strong convection to our SW will make it here, just seems to keep drying out as it moves NE toward northern SA metro area.

Edit: Just as I complain- rain is coming down steadily now at my office in Hollywood Park (northern SA metro). Anti-jinx!

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies say we carry this pattern well into June, with a large part of the state covered by the 6-8"+ mean

[Cpv17]

Euro Weeklies say we carry this pattern well into June, with a large part of the state covered by the 6-8"+ mean

By far the best news I’ve heard all day!

[Iceresistance]

Surprise broken line just to my north

[Brent]

Surprise broken line just to my north

We apparently gusted to 59 mph here also the temperature dropped to 67 which is a big improvement over the last few nights at this hour

[Cpv17]

Surprise broken line just to my north

We apparently gusted to 59 mph here also the temperature dropped to 67 which is a big improvement over the last few nights at this hour

Before you know it those 60° dew points are gonna be all the way up to Canada.

[Brent]

Surprise broken line just to my north

We apparently gusted to 59 mph here also the temperature dropped to 67 which is a big improvement over the last few nights at this hour

Before you know it those 60° dew points are gonna be all the way up to Canada.

Yeah the last few days have made me not hyped about it I mean we had chilly rain all day Thursday and flipped to hot and humid by the end of Friday

[ElectricStorm]

Personally getting more concerned for Thursday in OK/KS. IMO starting to look like a classic May tornado event setting up. There could be some capping concerns, and maybe some cloud cover, but I'm not really sure either of those will be much of an issue. Day 2 outlook maintains the slight risk for now, but I'm fully expecting an upgrade to enhanced at some point. Probably will see a 30% hail area and potentially a 10% tornado area added later. Not sure we'll see anything higher than that but it can't be ruled out. Looking like a dangerous day.

Would love a good storm, but 2/26 and 4/19 provided more than enough tornado action around here, we certainly don't need anymore of that.

[Edwards Limestone]

[rwfromkansas]

Back in my home state, I saw Wichita KS got almost an inch of rain yesterday, which is more than they received in over two months!

They have had a bad drought going on up there.

For Texas, I prefer the precip placement on the GFS for DFW, but at least both Euro and GFS both show decent rains state-wide. For some, drought-busting rains!

[Ntxw]

Last year around this time we were kicking off an early season heatwave that would roll all the way through mid August...

I remember getting some flack for being a heat monger, but as is with the data. Glad we're not going through that again.

[Haris]

https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/products/rainfall/rainfall24hour.png

https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/products/rainfall/rainfall3day.png

https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/products/rainfall/rainfall10day.png

Austin hole

[gpsnowman]

About to get wet here. Got darker all of a sudden and some light rain is falling. Nice and cool outside also. On a side note, the drop down advertisements on the forum are driving me nuts!!

[Iceresistance]

About to get wet here. Got darker all of a sudden and some light rain is falling. Nice and cool outside also. On a side note, the drop down advertisements on the forum are driving me nuts!!

Well, I have an adblocker and I don't have that issue!

But either way, Thursday could be dangerous. Enhanced risk for OKC that is tornado and hail driven.

[Edwards Limestone]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri May 12 2023 - 12Z Sat May 13 2023

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

TX...
An upper low is expected to move out of northern Mexico into TX to
the west of the track of the system crossing the state at this
time, strongly increasing low-level inflow up the Rio Grande and
into portions of the Escarpment towards 60 kts at 850 hPa.
Precipitable water values rise to 1.75-2", while CAPE should be
3000 J/kg or so. Convection with heavy rainfall is expected
Friday evening which should continue overnight. Conceptually, the
initial convective area should take roughly four hours to move --
any veering in the 850 hPa inflow is modest and towards Saturday
12z. Given the available moisture, 2.5-3" an hour totals cannot
be ruled out while the convection is stationary -- especially if
mesocyclones form -- which could pile up totals quickly. An
equally big concern would be if convection formed out ahead of the
developing complex -- particularly along the Escarpment -- once a
cold pool formed leading to cell mergers as the advancing
organized convection moves in to any preceding thunderstorm
activity. Other problems would be if a warm advection band formed
to its east-southeast which should be the eventual direction of
propagation parallel to the 1000-500 hPa thickness gradient or if
convection starts training on its western flank -- it's unclear
whether that would be in Mexico or South-Central TX closer to the
Rio Grande Valley. Some of the model guidance indicate that local
amounts in the 10" (00z Canadian Global, 00z NAM12, and 09/12z
ECMWF) or even 20" (Canadian Regional) range are possible should
the worst case scenarios play out. For now, an upgrade to a
Moderate Risk is being made which appears to be a conservative
move. Further elevation in the risk level is possible in later
cycles should the guidance get less dispersive while continuing to
show such significant heavy rainfall potential. The new Moderate
Risk area was coordinated with the CRP/Corpus Christi, EWX/New
Braunfels TX, and SJT/San Angelo TX forecast offices.

[Iceresistance]

Popcorn showers and storms like June and July...

[Cpv17]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99ewbg.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri May 12 2023 - 12Z Sat May 13 2023

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

TX...
An upper low is expected to move out of northern Mexico into TX to
the west of the track of the system crossing the state at this
time, strongly increasing low-level inflow up the Rio Grande and
into portions of the Escarpment towards 60 kts at 850 hPa.
Precipitable water values rise to 1.75-2", while CAPE should be
3000 J/kg or so. Convection with heavy rainfall is expected
Friday evening which should continue overnight. Conceptually, the
initial convective area should take roughly four hours to move --
any veering in the 850 hPa inflow is modest and towards Saturday
12z. Given the available moisture, 2.5-3" an hour totals cannot
be ruled out while the convection is stationary -- especially if
mesocyclones form -- which could pile up totals quickly. An
equally big concern would be if convection formed out ahead of the
developing complex -- particularly along the Escarpment -- once a
cold pool formed leading to cell mergers as the advancing
organized convection moves in to any preceding thunderstorm
activity. Other problems would be if a warm advection band formed
to its east-southeast which should be the eventual direction of
propagation parallel to the 1000-500 hPa thickness gradient or if
convection starts training on its western flank -- it's unclear
whether that would be in Mexico or South-Central TX closer to the
Rio Grande Valley. Some of the model guidance indicate that local
amounts in the 10" (00z Canadian Global, 00z NAM12, and 09/12z
ECMWF) or even 20" (Canadian Regional) range are possible should
the worst case scenarios play out. For now, an upgrade to a
Moderate Risk is being made which appears to be a conservative
move. Further elevation in the risk level is possible in later
cycles should the guidance get less dispersive while continuing to
show such significant heavy rainfall potential. The new Moderate
Risk area was coordinated with the CRP/Corpus Christi, EWX/New
Braunfels TX, and SJT/San Angelo TX forecast offices.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero_d45/images/d4wbg.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero_d45/images/d5wbg.gif

This could get pretty bad. Feast or famine at its finest.

[Texas Snowman]

Lakes like Falcon and O.H. Ivie are about to get a food drink of H2O…

 https://twitter.com/chasetxwx/status/1656388269074939905

[opticsguy]

Looking at last year, DFW was in a heat wave of 95-100F weather that started around May 1, and except for about an inch of rain late in May, no rain at all until Labor Day. I still haven't used my A/C here in McKinney