2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#301 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:37 am

Shortwave Trough / Mid-Level Shortwave over Oklahoma [Today] → Frontal Wave Off SE US Coast [Sunday]
A shortwave trough is currently located over Oklahoma/Kansas, and is closed (between roughly the 925mb–500mb level) but not too well-stacked aloft. You may be rightfully wondering what in the world this has to do with anything tropical. Over the next few days, this shortwave is expected to move southeast and should reach the Florida/Georgia border Saturday night. After that, it'll swing east and northeast along a decaying front / baroclinic zone off the East Coast after moving offshore sometime Sunday.

As a general rule of thumb, regardless of model consensus for tropical cyclone development or not, frontal waves off the East Coast of the US often provide seedlings for tropical cyclones throughout the hurricane season. These sorts of developments often sneak up on model guidance (think of all the various, rapidly organizing but typically weak tropical storms that have formed off the coast in recent years). If this particular disturbance can get sufficient convective activity going offshore (and find an area of lower wind shear), it has some shot of organizing into a tropical cyclone (note the low tracks off the East Coast on the GEFS and EPS). Based on the projected steering, the precursor system will likely be more impactful with regard to severe weather and flooding over the SE US than whatever offshore system develops, but it could nonetheless be something to watch for the wx enthusiasts and shipping out there.

GEFS 6z Low Tracks off the East Coast. Source: Weathernerds.org
Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#302 Postby Camerooski » Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:44 am

Shortwave Trough --> transitioning into a possible TC to help erode periphery of blocking high and push future "Bert/Cindy" OTS and spare the islands? :sun:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#303 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Jun 16, 2023 1:01 pm

If both storms form before 06 UTC on 6/20, then Cindy would be the earliest fourth named storm on record. The current record is Tropical Storm Danielle in June 2016, a year that also had a January system and an early June storm in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#304 Postby Teban54 » Fri Jun 16, 2023 5:00 pm

Apparently EPS says just one June MDR storm isn't enough...

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1669797982827413504


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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#305 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jun 16, 2023 5:22 pm

Teban54 wrote:Apparently EPS says just one June MDR storm isn't enough...

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1669797982827413504



I’m interested in the second system. Haven’t heard anything about a second system till I saw this. Interesting.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#306 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jun 16, 2023 6:30 pm

Mother Nature accidentally flipped through a couple extra pages on her calendar. :lol:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#307 Postby Teban54 » Fri Jun 16, 2023 6:41 pm

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#308 Postby Woofde » Fri Jun 16, 2023 7:12 pm

June 16th is a little early to be tracking potential MDR systems, but here we are. The waters are definitely warm enough.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#309 Postby Teban54 » Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:41 pm

LemieT wrote:In observing the models recently, it seems the CMC's name has changed from Constantly Making Cyclones to Can't Make Cyclones.

This didn't age well:
Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#310 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Jun 17, 2023 1:29 am

Teban54 wrote:
LemieT wrote:In observing the models recently, it seems the CMC's name has changed from Constantly Making Cyclones to Can't Make Cyclones.

This didn't age well:
https://i.postimg.cc/4dtR5fGc/gem-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-240.gif

The thing is, there is some support for at least one additional system from the ECMWF ensembles.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#311 Postby chaser1 » Sat Jun 17, 2023 2:11 am

Teban54 wrote:
LemieT wrote:In observing the models recently, it seems the CMC's name has changed from Constantly Making Cyclones to Can't Make Cyclones.

This didn't age well:
https://i.postimg.cc/4dtR5fGc/gem-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-240.gif


Okay, now THAT'S funny :sun: Throw in the EPAC, and I count 4 of 'em in that 10 day forecast.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#312 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 17, 2023 4:33 am

Well looks like 92L isn't just a fluke but the start of Cape Verde season in June. :double:

In fact most global models have 1-2 more right behind 92L. The Canadian image has 2 (not including 92L)

ImageImage


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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#313 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 17, 2023 9:17 am

TheAustinMan wrote:Shortwave Trough / Mid-Level Shortwave over Oklahoma [Today] → Frontal Wave Off SE US Coast [Sunday]
A shortwave trough is currently located over Oklahoma/Kansas, and is closed (between roughly the 925mb–500mb level) but not too well-stacked aloft. You may be rightfully wondering what in the world this has to do with anything tropical. Over the next few days, this shortwave is expected to move southeast and should reach the Florida/Georgia border Saturday night. After that, it'll swing east and northeast along a decaying front / baroclinic zone off the East Coast after moving offshore sometime Sunday.

As a general rule of thumb, regardless of model consensus for tropical cyclone development or not, frontal waves off the East Coast of the US often provide seedlings for tropical cyclones throughout the hurricane season. These sorts of developments often sneak up on model guidance (think of all the various, rapidly organizing but typically weak tropical storms that have formed off the coast in recent years). If this particular disturbance can get sufficient convective activity going offshore (and find an area of lower wind shear), it has some shot of organizing into a tropical cyclone (note the low tracks off the East Coast on the GEFS and EPS). Based on the projected steering, the precursor system will likely be more impactful with regard to severe weather and flooding over the SE US than whatever offshore system develops, but it could nonetheless be something to watch for the wx enthusiasts and shipping out there.

GEFS 6z Low Tracks off the East Coast. Source: Weathernerds.org
[url]https://i.ibb.co/P4DNNbg/image.png [/url]

06z 3km NAM (yes I know it’s the NAM) shows this developing into a 1004mb TS by Monday afternoon. So far the globals aren’t really biting, most keeping it as just a low.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#314 Postby St0rmTh0r » Sat Jun 17, 2023 9:59 am

Ivanhater wrote:Well looks like 92L isn't just a fluke but the start of Cape Verde season in June. :double:

In fact most global models have 1-2 more right behind 92L. The Canadian image has 2 (not including 92L)

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230617/fa3f3258ed1adfdac3a5ea675a9fdb3b.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230617/f13f2cf035c809c984397e9a38ba97eb.jpg


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https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230617/6e83d819673d1a8f837f261380bd49ba.jpg

really unprecedented not sure what this means for the future
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#315 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 11:29 am

ICON dropped 92L but develops wave behind.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#316 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 11:45 am

CMC develops the wave behind 92L.

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#317 Postby chaser1 » Sat Jun 17, 2023 11:49 am

cycloneye wrote:ICON dropped 92L but develops wave behind.


That run seems suspicious. The 6Z doesn't depict any significant speed or directional change to mid or upper level winds, nor the speed in which the system is moving. Purely a guess here but I think that we'll see the ICON pick the system back up this upcoming 12Z run.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#318 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Jun 17, 2023 11:55 am

Would be wild if 2023 had a robust CV season beginning in June and lasting through September.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#319 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Jun 17, 2023 12:22 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Would be wild if 2023 had a robust CV season beginning in June and lasting through September.

Due to how wx patterns and oscillators behave, I'd say it would be more unlikely than even the Super Outbreak or March 2012 NA heat event to have a sustained CV season starting now with no notable lull. I don't want to say its impossible but my idea is I'd have to have a 20,000 year dataset to find a few.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#320 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 17, 2023 1:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:CMC develops the wave behind 92L.

https://i.imgur.com/r1h3uYa.gif

It also finally has something come out of 92L, albeit very weak. Until today, the CMC has been the one outlier model showing no development.
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