ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2023061800, , BEST, 0, 98N, 292W, 20, 1011, WV

[cycloneye]

Historic perspective.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1670237733888077826

[cycloneye]

Is organizing in a faster pace now.

[toad strangler]

Is organizing in a faster pace now.

https://i.imgur.com/hfd0AUg.gif

This would be nuts to see on 7/17 let alone 6/17.

[dexterlabio]

Reminds me of Hurricane Danny, but 2 months earlier

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1670272611706707969

[SconnieCane]

Historic perspective.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1670237733888077826

So Bret could beat its own record by a day?

[NotSparta]

Historic perspective.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1670237733888077826

So Bret could beat its own record by a day?

Bret breaking the record:

[MetroMike]

Does not seem official from what I can see yet

[hurricanes1234]

Code red.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is now likely to form over the next couple of days. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the middle part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Teban54]

Convection waning slightly but showing more spin:

[Sciencerocks]

1. LLC appears to be broad and ill defined southwest to northeast. Not really much more organized then it was 12-18 hours ago.
2. Can see some southwesterly shear...Probably ~15 knots.
3. This LLC around is near ~10.5/29.5
4, Convection appears to be west to east along a convergence boundry. This is choking off the LLC from focusing the energy near the center.

I think development of a well defined LLC capable of being upgrading is still at least 24 hours off if not more. Slow strengthening into tropical storm Bret between 24-72 hours before it finally organizes its core to become a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane as it approaches. I think the ridging north of the system along side a lower amount of strengthening will result in this impacting the islands before turning northwest and northward into the Atlantic around 64-65 west. The gfs is will known for punching holes in ridges and so I'd expect it to be well south of the 00z op thinking...

[Hammy]

Does not seem official from what I can see yet

The screenshot is from the old SSD page in 2017 I believe, and seems we could see a rare case of a storm record being broken by another storm of the same name

[weeniepatrol]

6z TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave located
several hundred miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis
near 30W and with a 1011 mb low near 10N29W. The wave axis
extends from 05N to 13N, and is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 12N between 27W and
33W. This activity is starting to show some signs of
organization and environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development.

[weeniepatrol]

2. Can see some southwesterly shear...Probably ~15 knots.

Respectfully, I don't see it at all.

GFS analysis:



Shear is analyzed as 5 kt; we will say 10 kt to be extra super duper generous.

Vorticity:



Vorticity is perfectly vertically aligned/stacked 850 to 500mb. No sign of shear (yet).

Correct me if I am wrong (please).

[NotSparta]

Does not seem official from what I can see yet

The screenshot is from the old SSD page in 2017 I believe, and seems we could see a rare case of a storm record being broken by another storm of the same name

Yeah, I was using it as a joke to say Bret will be replaced with Bret

[Sciencerocks]

1. The convection that is attempting to blow up over the center is being blown off to the north and northeast of the center....This is suggestive of shear. This shear is also what is providing the convergences for the boundry to the south and southwest of the center.
2. Cimss shear map shows 15-20 knots shear the core....Much higher towards the west.

[NotSparta]

1. The convection that is attempting to blow up over the center is being blown off to the north and northeast of the center....This is suggestive of shear. This shear is also what is providing the convergences for the boundry to the south and southwest of the center.
2. Cimss shear map shows 15-20 knots shear the core....Much higher towards the west.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/935/jV4CKY.gif

On that map, 92L is right inside a low shear zone. Also, those southerly/southwesterly winds aloft aren't too widespread around the system. What we're seeing is more likely outflow on the leading edge of its anticyclone

[weeniepatrol]

1. The convection that is attempting to blow up over the center is being blown off to the north and northeast of the center....This is suggestive of shear. This shear is also what is providing the convergences for the boundry to the south and southwest of the center.
2. Cimss shear map shows 15-20 knots shear the core....Much higher towards the west.

Anticyclonic streamlines over the system is indicative that the analyzed "shear" is simply its own outflow.

There are certainly strong westerlies north/west, however. Currently they are just maintaining a strong poleward outflow

[JetFuel_SE]

1. The convection that is attempting to blow up over the center is being blown off to the north and northeast of the center....This is suggestive of shear. This shear is also what is providing the convergences for the boundry to the south and southwest of the center.
2. Cimss shear map shows 15-20 knots shear the core....Much higher towards the west.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/935/jV4CKY.gif

These maps are rarely reliable, as they often confuse outflow with shear.