ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#61 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 7:43 pm

00z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2023061800, , BEST, 0, 98N, 292W, 20, 1011, WV
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#62 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 8:16 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#63 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 17, 2023 9:01 pm

Is organizing in a faster pace now.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#64 Postby toad strangler » Sat Jun 17, 2023 9:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is organizing in a faster pace now.

https://i.imgur.com/hfd0AUg.gif
Image


This would be nuts to see on 7/17 let alone 6/17.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#65 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Jun 17, 2023 9:54 pm

Reminds me of Hurricane Danny, but 2 months earlier :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#66 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Jun 17, 2023 10:41 pm

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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#67 Postby SconnieCane » Sat Jun 17, 2023 11:20 pm



So Bret could beat its own record by a day? :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#68 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 18, 2023 12:04 am

SconnieCane wrote:


So Bret could beat its own record by a day? :lol:


Bret breaking the record:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#69 Postby MetroMike » Sun Jun 18, 2023 12:23 am

Does not seem official from what I can see yet
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#70 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Jun 18, 2023 12:44 am

Code red.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is now likely to form over the next couple of days. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the middle part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#71 Postby Teban54 » Sun Jun 18, 2023 12:51 am

Convection waning slightly but showing more spin:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#72 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:14 am

Image

1. LLC appears to be broad and ill defined southwest to northeast. Not really much more organized then it was 12-18 hours ago.
2. Can see some southwesterly shear...Probably ~15 knots.
3. This LLC around is near ~10.5/29.5
4, Convection appears to be west to east along a convergence boundry. This is choking off the LLC from focusing the energy near the center.

I think development of a well defined LLC capable of being upgrading is still at least 24 hours off if not more. Slow strengthening into tropical storm Bret between 24-72 hours before it finally organizes its core to become a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane as it approaches. I think the ridging north of the system along side a lower amount of strengthening will result in this impacting the islands before turning northwest and northward into the Atlantic around 64-65 west. The gfs is will known for punching holes in ridges and so I'd expect it to be well south of the 00z op thinking...

Image
Last edited by Sciencerocks on Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:43 am, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#73 Postby Hammy » Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:17 am

MetroMike wrote:Does not seem official from what I can see yet


The screenshot is from the old SSD page in 2017 I believe, and seems we could see a rare case of a storm record being broken by another storm of the same name
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#74 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:28 am

6z TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave located
several hundred miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis
near 30W and with a 1011 mb low near 10N29W. The wave axis
extends from 05N to 13N, and is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 12N between 27W and
33W. This activity is starting to show some signs of
organization and environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#75 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:33 am

Sciencerocks wrote:2. Can see some southwesterly shear...Probably ~15 knots.


Respectfully, I don't see it at all.

GFS analysis:

Image

Shear is analyzed as 5 kt; we will say 10 kt to be extra super duper generous.

Vorticity:

Image

Vorticity is perfectly vertically aligned/stacked 850 to 500mb. No sign of shear (yet).

Correct me if I am wrong (please).
Last edited by weeniepatrol on Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#76 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:37 am

Hammy wrote:
MetroMike wrote:Does not seem official from what I can see yet


The screenshot is from the old SSD page in 2017 I believe, and seems we could see a rare case of a storm record being broken by another storm of the same name


Yeah, I was using it as a joke to say Bret will be replaced with Bret
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#77 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jun 18, 2023 2:03 am

1. The convection that is attempting to blow up over the center is being blown off to the north and northeast of the center....This is suggestive of shear. This shear is also what is providing the convergences for the boundry to the south and southwest of the center.
2. Cimss shear map shows 15-20 knots shear the core....Much higher towards the west.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#78 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 18, 2023 2:13 am

Sciencerocks wrote:1. The convection that is attempting to blow up over the center is being blown off to the north and northeast of the center....This is suggestive of shear. This shear is also what is providing the convergences for the boundry to the south and southwest of the center.
2. Cimss shear map shows 15-20 knots shear the core....Much higher towards the west.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/935/jV4CKY.gif


On that map, 92L is right inside a low shear zone. Also, those southerly/southwesterly winds aloft aren't too widespread around the system. What we're seeing is more likely outflow on the leading edge of its anticyclone
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#79 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 18, 2023 2:15 am

Sciencerocks wrote:1. The convection that is attempting to blow up over the center is being blown off to the north and northeast of the center....This is suggestive of shear. This shear is also what is providing the convergences for the boundry to the south and southwest of the center.
2. Cimss shear map shows 15-20 knots shear the core....Much higher towards the west.


Image

Anticyclonic streamlines over the system is indicative that the analyzed "shear" is simply its own outflow.

There are certainly strong westerlies north/west, however. Currently they are just maintaining a strong poleward outflow
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#80 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sun Jun 18, 2023 2:20 am

Sciencerocks wrote:1. The convection that is attempting to blow up over the center is being blown off to the north and northeast of the center....This is suggestive of shear. This shear is also what is providing the convergences for the boundry to the south and southwest of the center.
2. Cimss shear map shows 15-20 knots shear the core....Much higher towards the west.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/935/jV4CKY.gif

These maps are rarely reliable, as they often confuse outflow with shear.
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