Convective Blowup Over the SW GOMEX

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
jaguars_22
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 562
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm

Convective Blowup Over the SW GOMEX

#1 Postby jaguars_22 » Tue Jul 04, 2023 12:14 pm

I know some of the models showed some slight turning in vorticity in short term… I wonder if this could be a short lived home brew?
0 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2766
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: Bay Of Campeche Flareup

#2 Postby Frank P » Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:05 am

Well, its overall convection improved overnight into the early morning hours. See if it hangs around, moves inland or just dissipates. But I sure need some rain over here in Biloxi, come this way convection.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22771
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Convective Blowup Over the SW GOMEX

#3 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 05, 2023 10:19 am

Models have been seeing this weak feature for days. Current models take it inland into the TX coast tonight and tomorrow, providing us with the best chance of rain in three weeks. No tropical development before it moves inland in 18-24 hrs.
1 likes   

tylerhc
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 1
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:47 pm

Re: Convective Blowup Over the SW GOMEX

#4 Postby tylerhc » Wed Jul 05, 2023 11:36 am

wxman57 wrote:Models have been seeing this weak feature for days. Current models take it inland into the TX coast tonight and tomorrow, providing us with the best chance of rain in three weeks. No tropical development before it moves inland in 18-24 hrs.

How far in-land will this travel. Will bastrop/Austin area receive any rain? Need to make decision to fertilize the hayfields or not.
0 likes   

ChrisH-UK
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 584
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: Convective Blowup Over the SW GOMEX

#5 Postby ChrisH-UK » Wed Jul 05, 2023 1:14 pm

Mostly going to be a rain maker for Texas. This is a loop using GOES-16 Geo Colour with Optical Depth to show what is happening inside. Source - https://col.st/mOEa6

Image
0 likes   

ChrisH-UK
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 584
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: Convective Blowup Over the SW GOMEX

#6 Postby ChrisH-UK » Wed Jul 05, 2023 1:26 pm

Just noticed something in the last few frames of that loop. It looks like it is trying to form up. I have zoomed in a bit and adjusted it the cloud structure looks like it is starting to form a centre of rotation and bands. However this will probably end to be nothing too close to the shore, not enough time to get organised however we have seen these thing pop up out of nowhere in to storms before.

Optical Depth measures how far down the it can see it a handy way to see the structure of a storm.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Convective Blowup Over the SW GOMEX

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 05, 2023 4:01 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22771
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Convective Blowup Over the SW GOMEX

#8 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 05, 2023 7:12 pm

Any rotation you see on satellite is WAY above the surface, like at 500mb (18,000 ft). Zero chance of tropical development before it moves into Texas tonight. Looks like it is running into a NE-SW trof axis along the TX coast tonight, so don't expect the precip to move very far inland. I hope it at least gets to Houston. Grass is brown now.
2 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], HeatherAKC, hurricanes1234, nativefloridian and 72 guests