Convective Blowup Over the SW GOMEX

[jaguars_22]

I know some of the models showed some slight turning in vorticity in short term… I wonder if this could be a short lived home brew?

[Frank P]

Well, its overall convection improved overnight into the early morning hours. See if it hangs around, moves inland or just dissipates. But I sure need some rain over here in Biloxi, come this way convection.

[wxman57]

Models have been seeing this weak feature for days. Current models take it inland into the TX coast tonight and tomorrow, providing us with the best chance of rain in three weeks. No tropical development before it moves inland in 18-24 hrs.

[tylerhc]

Models have been seeing this weak feature for days. Current models take it inland into the TX coast tonight and tomorrow, providing us with the best chance of rain in three weeks. No tropical development before it moves inland in 18-24 hrs.

How far in-land will this travel. Will bastrop/Austin area receive any rain? Need to make decision to fertilize the hayfields or not.

[ChrisH-UK]

Mostly going to be a rain maker for Texas. This is a loop using GOES-16 Geo Colour with Optical Depth to show what is happening inside. Source - https://col.st/mOEa6

[ChrisH-UK]

Just noticed something in the last few frames of that loop. It looks like it is trying to form up. I have zoomed in a bit and adjusted it the cloud structure looks like it is starting to form a centre of rotation and bands. However this will probably end to be nothing too close to the shore, not enough time to get organised however we have seen these thing pop up out of nowhere in to storms before.

Optical Depth measures how far down the it can see it a handy way to see the structure of a storm.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1676673228805230601

[wxman57]

Any rotation you see on satellite is WAY above the surface, like at 500mb (18,000 ft). Zero chance of tropical development before it moves into Texas tonight. Looks like it is running into a NE-SW trof axis along the TX coast tonight, so don't expect the precip to move very far inland. I hope it at least gets to Houston. Grass is brown now.