2023 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1126278051072839690/image0.jpg

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1126275166373171230/gfs_midRH_epac_24.png

18z GFS continues to have the best UL environment I’ve seen in this basin this year. However, it is trending towards a larger system, though embedded within an excellent moisture envelope.

System that large probably caps intensity.

Euro has a normal sized cane which probably means MH before it reaches unfavorable conditions.

[Kingarabian]

Ready for 94E.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 6 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression will likely form over weekend while it moves
generally west-northwestward, away from the coast of mainland
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico early next week. Some gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico early next week. Some gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Kingarabian]

It is El Nino out there in the far eastern Pacific so something should become a strong major hurricane eventually. But models are now tracking future 94E more NW vs WNW and bring it over unfavorable conditions sooner. Also looks to be large which isn't going to help it ramp up fast.

[cycloneye]

https://i.postimg.cc/kXB12KVN/image.png

Ready for 94E.

Agreed. Future 94E has good potential to be a fairly strong hurricane and be close to cat 3. Let's see what happens.

[cycloneye]

It is El Nino out there in the far eastern Pacific so something should become a strong major hurricane eventually. But models are now tracking future 94E more NW vs WNW and bring it over unfavorable conditions sooner. Also looks to be large which isn't going to help it ramp up fast.

I still see Euro a bit more south in the track than GFS. If it takes the Euro route, it may be a photogenic hurricane like Marie 2014.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT TWO.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located well south-southeast
of southeastern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next
week. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
parallel to, but well offshore, of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO for future 94E.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located well south-southeast of
southeastern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week. The
system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward parallel
to, but well offshore, of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Euro continues to be in the southerrn track from GFS and if that happens, it may well be a strong hurricane as it has more time on warm waters. Stays strong as it moves beyond 120W.

[Blown Away]

La Niña or El Niño, for the past 2 seasons the EPAC keeps pumping out hurricanes.

[Yellow Evan]

Upper environment around the system anticyclonic and generally aligned with storm motion and thermodynamics won’t become a negative factor for about a week. Outside of its broad size (more of an issue on the GFS than ECMWF), I don’t see what is stopping a major hurricane from forming next week

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian, you may have to watch where you are, future Dora if the Euro is right. It will weaken but still may have some effects if it makes it to the islands.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian, you may have to watch where you are, future Dora if the Euro is right. It will weaken but still may have some effects if it makes it to the islands.

https://i.imgur.com/EoycdiC.gif

It'll probably cut off the trade winds and could enhance some rainfall if it moves SW of the state.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1677490199012712450

Significant support of a potent hurricane out of this system by the ECMWF and EPS remains. They still show low wind shear and high divergence aloft. However, some GFS runs show a large, sprawling system with an asymmetric precipitation field within an environment of higher shear.

[Astromanía]

La Niña or El Niño, for the past 2 seasons the EPAC keeps pumping out hurricanes.

There has not been an epac season without at least one hurricane and there are just two seasons recorded in history without major hurricanes, EPAC it's the second most active basin in tbe world, we can often enjoy great activity here even if it's just for some time in the season

[cycloneye]

I say this 5 AM PDT TWO is a small setback as they say early to middle portions of next week instead of early that has been the wording in past outlooks.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure a few hundred miles south-southeast of
southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early to middle portions of next week.
The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward
parallel to, but well offshore of the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Kinda crazy but now only the Euro really develops the 20/80. Reason is because it tracks it almost due west or WNW where as the GFS and CMC have a more NW track. The latter eventually make it a TS before it crosses cooler waters.

[cycloneye]

Is July 8, but I can say at this date, If 93E and the 20/80 one don't develop into quality systems, then,imo, this basin is underperforming with El Niño present. The ACE so far is below average as on this date, normally is at 18.4, but so far is at 11.5.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO has no change.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure a few hundred miles south of southern
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early to middle portions of next week.
The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward,
remaining well offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.