2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Spacecoast]

12z Euro develops wave sw of CV islands 10 days from today.

https://i.imgur.com/qJDlrx0.gif

12z EPS....

[Teban54]

0z GFS shows Don and Emily co-existing in 9 days:

The MDR storm appears to be the same wave that Euro and EPS are hinting at. Horever, unlike Euro which moves the wave at a good clip, GFS shows it developing right off the coast, then stalling there, and quickly weakening.

If Emily develops as quickly as GFS suggests, it has a chance of becoming the second earliest forming 6th named storm, beating Franklin 2005 which formed on July 21. The earliest 6th named storm is Fay 2020 on July 9.

(On that note, Cindy this year already became the second earliest forming 4th named storm, beating Dolly 2020 and behind Danielle 2016.)

[cycloneye]

00z Euro, has nothing in MDR.

[Teban54]

00z Euro, has nothing in MDR.

0z EPS is also less active with the MDR signal.

[Spacecoast]

12z EPS: ~6 members of 51

[Spacecoast]

Comparing the Euro ensemble medium range (51 members) to the updated extended range (101 members)......

0z Medium range EPS strike probability 7/25 (+288 hrs) n=51 members:


0z Extended range strike probability week of 7/25 (+288-456 hrs) n=101 members


wrt spread, the two ensemble runs are similar, which seems to confirm that the additional members were added to increase density, rather than to increase the range of possible initial conditions.

If anything, the 'spread' looks narrower, with 101 members vs. 51 members, suggesting greater accuracy

0z EPS run also shows ~12% (6 of 51 members) between 40W-65W for 7/25....

[Spacecoast]

Comparing the Euro ensemble medium range (51 members) to the updated extended range (101 members)......

0z Medium range EPS strike probability 7/25 (+288 hrs) n=51 members:
https://i.ibb.co/HGgcyw4/ec10.jpg

0z Extended range strike probability week of 7/25 (+288-456 hrs) n=101 members
https://i.ibb.co/47q8hT8/ec11.jpg

wrt spread, the two ensemble runs are similar, which seems to confirm that the additional members were added to increase density, rather than to increase the range of possible initial conditions.

If anything, the 'spread' looks narrower, with 101 members vs. 51 members, suggesting greater accuracy

0z EPS run also shows ~12% (6 of 51 members) between 40W-65W for 7/25....
https://i.ibb.co/P4wqpx5/ec12.jpg

Edit: Latest Euro medium range, and extended range (now running daily) runs have backed off on this particular wave.....

[tiger_deF]

06z GFS is showing some brief potential development of our tropical wave of interest less than a week out.

[gatorcane]

06z GFS is showing some brief potential development of our tropical wave of interest less than a week out.

The favored area for an Atlantic development this season should be about where the GFS is showing the wave, animation below -near or just west of the Cape Verde islands and out over the South-Central Atlantic where those above normal SSTs are. Conditions should not be as favorable near the islands, Caribbean, and Gulf due to the El Niño even during the peak months. 06Z run below as the low weakens nearing the islands due to strong westerly wind shear:

[Blown Away]

06z GFS is showing some brief potential development of our tropical wave of interest less than a week out.

The favored area for an Atlantic development this season should be about where the GFS is showing the wave, animation below -near or just west of the Cape Verde islands and out over the South-Central Atlantic where those above normal SSTs are. Conditions should not be as favorable near the islands, Caribbean, and Gulf due to the El Niño even during the peak months. 06Z run below as the low weakens nearing the islands:

https://i.postimg.cc/X7fwTbgv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh120-270.gif

06z GEFS showing a little interest.

[Spacecoast]

0z Euro ensemble is back w/ the end of July wave.
~5 of 51 (10%) members near SFL on day 12

Tropical Storm strike probability 15-25% into Caribbean

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS.

https://i.postimg.cc/3wMKGkGp/gfs-mslpa-atl-28.png

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1680257227423096833

@AndyHazelton
The wave next week feels like something that ought to develop in a high end year. But it looks like dry air will make that difficult. Still early.

[LarryWx]

12z GFS.

https://i.postimg.cc/3wMKGkGp/gfs-mslpa-atl-28.png

I count 3 (10%) of 12Z GEFS developing this into a TS+. All reach 70W.

[Spacecoast]

12z EPS: Weaker, and further N than 0z....<10% TS probability near Bahamas

[LarryWx]

12z GFS.

https://i.postimg.cc/3wMKGkGp/gfs-mslpa-atl-28.png

I count 3 (10%) of 12Z GEFS developing this into a TS+. All reach 70W.

I count a sizable increase from 3 on 12Z GEFS to ~7 (~23%) of 0Z 7/16 GEFS members with a TS+ from this with 3 of them going past 70W.

The same can be said of the 0Z EPS vs the last few days of runs with 7 (14%) TS+ members.

[Blown Away]

00z EURO/ECENS a bit more active with a TW coming off Africa in @3-4 days…

[NDG]

0z EPS & GEFS through 10 days.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS.

https://i.postimg.cc/3wMKGkGp/gfs-mslpa-atl-28.png

I count 3 (10%) of 12Z GEFS developing this into a TS+. All reach 70W.

I count a sizable increase from 3 on 12Z GEFS to ~7 (~23%) of 0Z 7/16 GEFS members with a TS+ from this with 3 of them going past 70W.

The same can be said of the 0Z EPS vs the last few days of runs with 7 (14%) TS+ members.

Looks like it'll be enough for an NHC lemon in a few more days.

[Spacecoast]

I count 3 (10%) of 12Z GEFS developing this into a TS+. All reach 70W.

I count a sizable increase from 3 on 12Z GEFS to ~7 (~23%) of 0Z 7/16 GEFS members with a TS+ from this with 3 of them going past 70W.

The same can be said of the 0Z EPS vs the last few days of runs with 7 (14%) TS+ members.

Looks like it'll be enough for an NHC lemon in a few more days.

EPS signifcantly stronger overnight:
~15% TS probability ((day ), but.....


For the 1st time, EPS shows Hurricane possibility (10%):