2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Spacecoast]

0z EPS probabilities..
TS strike @12 days = ~9-12%


Hurricane strike possibility is back @11 days = ~8%



Still low probabilities overall.

[cycloneye]

Nothing to see here, folks. GFS is developing another spurious hurricane in the long range. Such development is quite unlikely. Enjoy the quiet over the next couple of weeks.

What is your message for the folks in the NE Caribbean islands that are not on long range?

[Teban54]

0z EPS probabilities..
TS strike @12 days = ~9-12%
https://i.ibb.co/4PPZvRX/ec30.jpg

Hurricane strike possibility is back @11 days = ~8%
https://i.ibb.co/LkdVbRM/ec28.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/bNfnCVz/ec29.jpg

Still low probabilities overall.

In addition to these members, it does seem that some other members kill the storm in the MDR, or bring it into the Caribbean where it dissipates. I'd say the chance of anything forming at all is probably higher than 10%.

[Spacecoast]

0z EPS probabilities..
TS strike @12 days = ~9-12%
https://i.ibb.co/4PPZvRX/ec30.jpg

Hurricane strike possibility is back @11 days = ~8%
https://i.ibb.co/LkdVbRM/ec28.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/bNfnCVz/ec29.jpg

Still low probabilities overall.

In addition to these members, it does seem that some other members kill the storm in the MDR, or bring it into the Caribbean where it dissipates. I'd say the chance of anything forming at all is probably higher than 10%.

Agreed. Day 4 on the 0z has about half the members showing development of a weak system (TD).
* The 6z EPS has backed off from the 0z, with less members, and fewer strong members.

[Kingarabian]

Nothing to see here, folks. GFS is developing another spurious hurricane in the long range. Such development is quite unlikely. Enjoy the quiet over the next couple of weeks.

I wouldn't write it off this early. It's on the Euro as well just of course not as strong. But it'll at the very least be lemon'd.

[AutoPenalti]

If NHC does lemon the AEW then I would likely expect a "conditions are marginally conducive" tidbit in their TWO.

[Category5Kaiju]

Nothing to see here, folks. GFS is developing another spurious hurricane in the long range. Such development is quite unlikely. Enjoy the quiet over the next couple of weeks.

I wouldn't write it off this early. It's on the Euro as well just of course not as strong. But it'll at the very least be lemon'd.

Yeah, at least it doesn’t originate near Central America

[Kingarabian]

Most likely an OTS or EC hit on this 12z GFS run.

[OuterBanker]

I think what wxman was referring to was the 00z GDS today.

[OuterBanker]

Again
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ufgwah6y ... y4pl4&dl=0

[cycloneye]

The formation of another storm to the NW affects the track of the other one.

[Kingarabian]

GFS begins development on two systems in about 6 days.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Makes a hard left or WSW, kinda reminds me of Andrew. Let's see how far W after 306 hours?

[LarryWx]

Nothing to see here, folks. GFS is developing another spurious hurricane in the long range. Such development is quite unlikely. Enjoy the quiet over the next couple of weeks.

I wouldn't write it off this early. It's on the Euro as well just of course not as strong. But it'll at the very least be lemon'd.

Whereas it might be unlikely to become a hurricane and maybe even a TS at this early stage, it isn't just the typically overdone GFS with hurricanes. Seven (14%) of the 0Z EPS members are hurricanes, with 5-6 being MHs. So, I wouldn't make a heavy bet that this won't become a H or even a MH. Let's see what the 12Z Euro suite shows.

[Teban54]

[abajan]

Should this run materialize, it would be pretty serious for the Bahamas and Florida. Thankfully it's very long-range.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Strong HP on this run, wouldn't be surprised to see this trend southward into Caribbean/GOM.

[aspen]

GFS begins development on two systems in about 6 days.

https://i.postimg.cc/y8fWz2BQ/image.png
https://i.postimg.cc/k4WnDH3d/image.png

The precursors for at least one of those systems appear on every other model. ICON favors the MDR system, CMC doesn’t do anything with it but shows the subtropics disturbance.

[SFLcane]

Nothing to see here, folks. GFS is developing another spurious hurricane in the long range. Such development is quite unlikely. Enjoy the quiet over the next couple of weeks.

I wouldn't write it off this early. It's on the Euro as well just of course not as strong. But it'll at the very least be lemon'd.

Whereas it might be unlikely to become a hurricane and maybe even a TS at this early stage, it isn't just the typically overdone GFS with hurricanes. Seven (14%) of the 0Z EPS members are hurricanes, with 5-6 being MHs. So, I wouldn't make a heavy bet that this won't become a H or even a MH. Let's see what the 12Z Euro suite shows.

There is an actually trackable TW. Conditions look prime ahead and looks like those favorable climate models were correct after all we shall see.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1680976201937047558

[gatorcane]

I wouldn't write it off this early. It's on the Euro as well just of course not as strong. But it'll at the very least be lemon'd.

Whereas it might be unlikely to become a hurricane and maybe even a TS at this early stage, it isn't just the typically overdone GFS with hurricanes. Seven (14%) of the 0Z EPS members are hurricanes, with 5-6 being MHs. So, I wouldn't make a heavy bet that this won't become a H or even a MH. Let's see what the 12Z Euro suite shows.

There is an actually trackable TW. Conditions look prime ahead and looks like those favorable climate models were correct after all we shall see.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1680976201937047558?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

Except conditions are not favorable (as you would expect this time of year out there). 12Z Euro looks realistic (animation below), that is, a typical tropical wave heading west in the MDR in July with no development. The CMC pretty much agrees with the Euro also: