2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS

[jlauderdal]

18z GEFS

Ridge expands west at the end for what easily could be a Floriduh strike

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/MK3DCpzN/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh162-378.gif [/url]

18z GEFS

Ridge expands west at the end for what easily could be a Floriduh strike

Oh JLauderdal if we had a $1 every time the 384 hr GFS blows up SFL…

[Blown Away]

00z GFS continues showing a TW about to move off Africa developing down the road. NHC probably going to issue a lemon cone in next 24-36 hours. Vorticity starts to show up on GFS @150 hours.

[cycloneye]

06z is much more bullish and goes to Florida and recurves up the coast.

[Kingarabian]

Euro support is still there to some extent.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: Euro support is still there to some extent.

00z ECENS…

[wxman57]

I'm sure that the GFS is correct THIS time. Euro and CMC identify the wave reaching the NE Caribbean, as they did with 95L.

[abajan]

I'm sure that the GFS is correct THIS time. Euro and CMC identify the wave reaching the NE Caribbean, as they did with 95L.

The GFS really needs to stop doing this.

[Blown Away]

I'm sure that the GFS is correct THIS time. Euro and CMC identify the wave reaching the NE Caribbean, as they did with 95L.

If the GFS long range is drinking again and the other long range models are correct it may be time to reconsider those above average storm # predictions??

[Teban54]

I'm sure that the GFS is correct THIS time. Euro and CMC identify the wave reaching the NE Caribbean, as they did with 95L.

If the GFS long range is drinking again and the other long range models are correct it may be time to reconsider those above average storm # predictions??

It's still July.

And the seasonal forecasts were not made using 384 hrs GFS runs.

[Blown Away]

I'm sure that the GFS is correct THIS time. Euro and CMC identify the wave reaching the NE Caribbean, as they did with 95L.

If the GFS long range is drinking again and the other long range models are correct it may be time to reconsider those above average storm # predictions? EPAC also crickets during this time.

It's still July.

And the seasonal forecasts were not made using 384 hrs GFS runs.

Except for our potential GFS phantom storm there is very little in the models up to @8/8 and nothing in the MDR at that time. Just an observation.

[toad strangler]

If the GFS long range is drinking again and the other long range models are correct it may be time to reconsider those above average storm # predictions? EPAC also crickets during this time.

It's still July.

And the seasonal forecasts were not made using 384 hrs GFS runs.

Except for our potential GFS phantom storm there is very little in the models up to @8/8 and nothing in the MDR at that time. Just an observation.

8/20 ding ding ding!

[Blown Away]

It's still July.

And the seasonal forecasts were not made using 384 hrs GFS runs.

Except for our potential GFS phantom storm there is very little in the models up to @8/8 and nothing in the MDR at that time. Just an observation.

8/20 ding ding ding!

Any other year I 100% agree, but this is El Niño and September on this Nino is expected to grow and normally shuts down the season. So I see it as we got about 5 weeks to make these #’s.

[Teban54]

If the GFS long range is drinking again and the other long range models are correct it may be time to reconsider those above average storm # predictions? EPAC also crickets during this time.

It's still July.

And the seasonal forecasts were not made using 384 hrs GFS runs.

Except for our potential GFS phantom storm there is very little in the models up to @8/8 and nothing in the MDR at that time. Just an observation.

If people don't trust long-range phantom storms when they do show up, then why trust the lack of them in the long range when they don't show up?

And there have been countless times when model runs went from nothing to suddenly showing activity. Fiona last year was a recent example.

[Kingarabian]

GFS is actually showing legit chances of development IF local criteria is met. That in itself is signaling an active season. Especially since its during a time when the Atlantic is not historically active.

[Blown Away]

It's still July.

And the seasonal forecasts were not made using 384 hrs GFS runs.

Except for our potential GFS phantom storm there is very little in the models up to @8/8 and nothing in the MDR at that time. Just an observation.

If people don't trust long-range phantom storms when they do show up, then why trust the lack of them in the long range when they don't show up?

And there have been countless times when model runs went from nothing to suddenly showing activity. Fiona last year was a recent example.

I pointed the lack of activity in the long range models as an observation. I guess you are not thinking the growing El Nino won’t have much effect on storm #’s going into Sept/Oct. If you do we need a lot of August activity.

[gatorcane]

You can see the wave the models are picking up on in this loop. Nice broad rotation/spin around 13N 8W with convection slightly sheared to the west side:

[Blown Away]

You can see the wave the models are picking up on in this loop. Nice broad rotation/spin around 13N 8W with convection slightly sheared to the west side:

https://i.postimg.cc/0QZf9LVV/goes16-vis-swir-eatl.gif

Lemon cone should appear soon from the NHC if they are buying into the GFS showing a low in the Central Atlantic in @5 days…

[Spacecoast]

Day 11 EPS: