2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Blown Away
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#521 Postby Blown Away » Sat Jul 22, 2023 7:39 pm

Image

18z GEFS
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Re: RE: Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#522 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Jul 22, 2023 7:54 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image

18z GEFS
Ridge expands west at the end for what easily could be a Floriduh strike
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Re: RE: Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#523 Postby Blown Away » Sat Jul 22, 2023 8:18 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Ridge expands west at the end for what easily could be a Floriduh strike


Oh JLauderdal if we had a $1 every time the 384 hr GFS blows up SFL… :lol: :D
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#524 Postby Blown Away » Sat Jul 22, 2023 11:46 pm

Image

00z GFS continues showing a TW about to move off Africa developing down the road. NHC probably going to issue a lemon cone in next 24-36 hours. Vorticity starts to show up on GFS @150 hours.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#525 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 23, 2023 6:09 am

06z is much more bullish and goes to Florida and recurves up the coast.

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#526 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 23, 2023 6:11 am

:uarrow: Euro support is still there to some extent.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#527 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 23, 2023 6:28 am

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Euro support is still there to some extent.


Image

00z ECENS…
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#528 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 23, 2023 7:13 am

I'm sure that the GFS is correct THIS time. ;-) Euro and CMC identify the wave reaching the NE Caribbean, as they did with 95L.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#529 Postby abajan » Sun Jul 23, 2023 7:30 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm sure that the GFS is correct THIS time. ;-) Euro and CMC identify the wave reaching the NE Caribbean, as they did with 95L.

The GFS really needs to stop doing this. :lol:

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#530 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 23, 2023 8:08 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm sure that the GFS is correct THIS time. ;-) Euro and CMC identify the wave reaching the NE Caribbean, as they did with 95L.


If the GFS long range is drinking again and the other long range models are correct it may be time to reconsider those above average storm # predictions??
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#531 Postby Teban54 » Sun Jul 23, 2023 9:10 am

Blown Away wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm sure that the GFS is correct THIS time. ;-) Euro and CMC identify the wave reaching the NE Caribbean, as they did with 95L.


If the GFS long range is drinking again and the other long range models are correct it may be time to reconsider those above average storm # predictions??

It's still July.

And the seasonal forecasts were not made using 384 hrs GFS runs.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#532 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 23, 2023 9:16 am

Teban54 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm sure that the GFS is correct THIS time. ;-) Euro and CMC identify the wave reaching the NE Caribbean, as they did with 95L.


If the GFS long range is drinking again and the other long range models are correct it may be time to reconsider those above average storm # predictions? EPAC also crickets during this time.

It's still July.

And the seasonal forecasts were not made using 384 hrs GFS runs.


Except for our potential GFS phantom storm there is very little in the models up to @8/8 and nothing in the MDR at that time. Just an observation.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#533 Postby toad strangler » Sun Jul 23, 2023 9:34 am

Blown Away wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
If the GFS long range is drinking again and the other long range models are correct it may be time to reconsider those above average storm # predictions? EPAC also crickets during this time.

It's still July.

And the seasonal forecasts were not made using 384 hrs GFS runs.


Except for our potential GFS phantom storm there is very little in the models up to @8/8 and nothing in the MDR at that time. Just an observation.


8/20 ding ding ding!
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#534 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 23, 2023 9:38 am

toad strangler wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Teban54 wrote:It's still July.

And the seasonal forecasts were not made using 384 hrs GFS runs.


Except for our potential GFS phantom storm there is very little in the models up to @8/8 and nothing in the MDR at that time. Just an observation.


8/20 ding ding ding!


Any other year I 100% agree, but this is El Niño and September on this Nino is expected to grow and normally shuts down the season. So I see it as we got about 5 weeks to make these #’s.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#535 Postby Teban54 » Sun Jul 23, 2023 9:47 am

Blown Away wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
If the GFS long range is drinking again and the other long range models are correct it may be time to reconsider those above average storm # predictions? EPAC also crickets during this time.

It's still July.

And the seasonal forecasts were not made using 384 hrs GFS runs.


Except for our potential GFS phantom storm there is very little in the models up to @8/8 and nothing in the MDR at that time. Just an observation.

If people don't trust long-range phantom storms when they do show up, then why trust the lack of them in the long range when they don't show up?

And there have been countless times when model runs went from nothing to suddenly showing activity. Fiona last year was a recent example.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#536 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 23, 2023 10:00 am

GFS is actually showing legit chances of development IF local criteria is met. That in itself is signaling an active season. Especially since its during a time when the Atlantic is not historically active.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#537 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 23, 2023 10:01 am

Teban54 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Teban54 wrote:It's still July.

And the seasonal forecasts were not made using 384 hrs GFS runs.


Except for our potential GFS phantom storm there is very little in the models up to @8/8 and nothing in the MDR at that time. Just an observation.

If people don't trust long-range phantom storms when they do show up, then why trust the lack of them in the long range when they don't show up?

And there have been countless times when model runs went from nothing to suddenly showing activity. Fiona last year was a recent example.


I pointed the lack of activity in the long range models as an observation. I guess you are not thinking the growing El Nino won’t have much effect on storm #’s going into Sept/Oct. If you do we need a lot of August activity.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#538 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 23, 2023 10:09 am

You can see the wave the models are picking up on in this loop. Nice broad rotation/spin around 13N 8W with convection slightly sheared to the west side:

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#539 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 23, 2023 10:31 am

gatorcane wrote:You can see the wave the models are picking up on in this loop. Nice broad rotation/spin around 13N 8W with convection slightly sheared to the west side:

https://i.postimg.cc/0QZf9LVV/goes16-vis-swir-eatl.gif


Lemon cone should appear soon from the NHC if they are buying into the GFS showing a low in the Central Atlantic in @5 days…
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#540 Postby Spacecoast » Sun Jul 23, 2023 10:53 am

Day 11 EPS:
Image
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