2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1686736640805408771

[Blown Away]

If all this long range modeling is correct about an active August, we should be seeing these storms in the long range GFS/Euro starting this week, not just in the ensembles. I see a lot of active TW’s in these models drying out.

[BobHarlem]

The Canadian has been the only global model consistently showing development since Monday (outside of some ensembles). I'm used to the GFS doing things like this, but not the Canadian.

[Blown Away]

12z CMC



12z ECMWF

[lsuhurricane]

I think its fair to say that things are going to pickup around here very soon.....if you believe the Euro Ensembles.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro ensembles are all over the place.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro ensembles are all over the place.

https://i.imgur.com/3YQ4JnH.jpg

It's probably due to uncertainty of ridge placement. Models seem to really struggle this time of year because the atmosphere is likely in or entering a transitional phase now as we approach peak season.

[jlauderdal]

If all this long range modeling is correct about an active August, we should be seeing these storms in the long range GFS/Euro starting this week, not just in the ensembles. I see a lot of active TW’s in these models drying out.

https://www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurricane-season/what-should-we-expect-as-we-approach-the-peak-of-the-hurricane-season-john-morales/3083108/

[USTropics]

12z Euro ensembles are all over the place.

https://i.imgur.com/3YQ4JnH.jpg

It's probably due to uncertainty of ridge placement. Models seem to really struggle this time of year because the atmosphere is likely in or entering a transitional phase now as we approach peak season.

Just looking at the 12z ECMWF operational, ridge placement + evolution/propagation of these AEWs are causing the likely spread in ensembles. Enhanced monsoonal flow off of Africa and a transitioning UL environment is creating a sort of traffic jam for these waves, and operational models have a difficult time pegging which AEW (if any) will potentially dominate.

Here is an analysis of the current AEWs highlighted in separate colors:


Superimpose this on the 12z ECMWF operational run out to 4 days:


This gives a bit of a better picture of potential tracks the operational/ensembles are showing of these AEWs:

[Teban54]

12z Euro ensembles are all over the place.

https://i.imgur.com/3YQ4JnH.jpg

It's probably due to uncertainty of ridge placement. Models seem to really struggle this time of year because the atmosphere is likely in or entering a transitional phase now as we approach peak season.

Just looking at the 12z ECMWF operational, ridge placement + evolution/propagation of these AEWs are causing the likely spread in ensembles. Enhanced monsoonal flow off of Africa and a transitioning UL environment is creating a sort of traffic jam for these waves, and operational models have a difficult time pegging which AEW (if any) will potentially dominate.

Here is an analysis of the current AEWs highlighted in separate colors:
https://i.imgur.com/8pffXuy.png

Superimpose this on the 12z ECMWF operational run out to 4 days:
https://i.imgur.com/Qt5auPL.gif

This gives a bit of a better picture of potential tracks the operational/ensembles are showing of these AEWs:
https://i.imgur.com/7vSjYbr.png

Do you think we may see a similar situation as 2020 where a supercharged WAM causes waves to have trouble consolidating in the MDR?

[USTropics]

It's probably due to uncertainty of ridge placement. Models seem to really struggle this time of year because the atmosphere is likely in or entering a transitional phase now as we approach peak season.

Just looking at the 12z ECMWF operational, ridge placement + evolution/propagation of these AEWs are causing the likely spread in ensembles. Enhanced monsoonal flow off of Africa and a transitioning UL environment is creating a sort of traffic jam for these waves, and operational models have a difficult time pegging which AEW (if any) will potentially dominate.

Here is an analysis of the current AEWs highlighted in separate colors:
https://i.imgur.com/8pffXuy.png

Superimpose this on the 12z ECMWF operational run out to 4 days:
https://i.imgur.com/Qt5auPL.gif

This gives a bit of a better picture of potential tracks the operational/ensembles are showing of these AEWs:
https://i.imgur.com/7vSjYbr.png

Do you think we may see a similar situation as 2020 where a supercharged WAM causes waves to have trouble consolidating in the MDR?

There will be times the monsoonal flow dominates (particularly when CCKW/MJO passages provides favorable parameters), but for the most part the WAM has been average this season. There are stark differences from 2020, where anomalous rising motion was concentrated over this region in July:


Compared to this season, anomalies have been focused towards the east in the WPAC/east of Australia:


Compare rainfall rate for July of both those years as well:


2023

[tiger_deF]

18z GFS actually shows a short-lived tropical storm forming from the tropical wave just off of Africa in 12-24 hours, which crosses the Atlantic and opens up into a wave.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1686869741518893056

[Jr0d]

Why is there no lemon(at the very least) for the wave @11N 26W ??

This could easily be classified as a depression based on Satellite obs in my amateur opinion!

[Blown Away]

06z GFS

I think we should be seeing one of these in the MDR today...

[jlauderdal]

https://i.postimg.cc/cLgHF8GW/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh144-336.gif
06z GFS
https://i.postimg.cc/SKtjd7Jm/Lemon.jpg
I think we should be seeing one of these in the MDR today...

Lets see what 57 says

[BobHarlem]

Doubt we'll get anything with that system today, any models that do anything with it are beyond 7 days, and the ensembles have backed off quite a bit this morning. Subsidence is a huge damper here, strange to say in August, but it's what I think is happening with that wave (and what happened with 96L). If the thing persists for 24 hours or so, maybe then.

[Cpv17]

I believe it’s a lil too early to get mentioned.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1687067690827923456




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1687072574067425280

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/cLgHF8GW/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh144-336.gif [/url]
06z GFS
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/SKtjd7Jm/Lemon.jpg [/url]
I think we should be seeing one of these in the MDR today...

Think we are a few days from that if it happens at all. Development chances are currently outside of the 5-7days window surely.