2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#641 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Aug 02, 2023 10:00 am

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#642 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 02, 2023 11:10 am

If all this long range modeling is correct about an active August, we should be seeing these storms in the long range GFS/Euro starting this week, not just in the ensembles. I see a lot of active TW’s in these models drying out.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#643 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:02 pm

The Canadian has been the only global model consistently showing development since Monday (outside of some ensembles). I'm used to the GFS doing things like this, but not the Canadian.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#644 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:42 pm

Image

12z CMC

Image

12z ECMWF
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#645 Postby lsuhurricane » Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:55 pm

I think its fair to say that things are going to pickup around here very soon.....if you believe the Euro Ensembles.

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#646 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 02, 2023 2:59 pm

12z Euro ensembles are all over the place.

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#647 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Aug 02, 2023 3:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z Euro ensembles are all over the place.

https://i.imgur.com/3YQ4JnH.jpg


It's probably due to uncertainty of ridge placement. Models seem to really struggle this time of year because the atmosphere is likely in or entering a transitional phase now as we approach peak season.
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Re: RE: Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#648 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:29 pm

Blown Away wrote:If all this long range modeling is correct about an active August, we should be seeing these storms in the long range GFS/Euro starting this week, not just in the ensembles. I see a lot of active TW’s in these models drying out.
https://www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurricane-season/what-should-we-expect-as-we-approach-the-peak-of-the-hurricane-season-john-morales/3083108/
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#649 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:41 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z Euro ensembles are all over the place.

https://i.imgur.com/3YQ4JnH.jpg


It's probably due to uncertainty of ridge placement. Models seem to really struggle this time of year because the atmosphere is likely in or entering a transitional phase now as we approach peak season.


Just looking at the 12z ECMWF operational, ridge placement + evolution/propagation of these AEWs are causing the likely spread in ensembles. Enhanced monsoonal flow off of Africa and a transitioning UL environment is creating a sort of traffic jam for these waves, and operational models have a difficult time pegging which AEW (if any) will potentially dominate.

Here is an analysis of the current AEWs highlighted in separate colors:
Image

Superimpose this on the 12z ECMWF operational run out to 4 days:
Image

This gives a bit of a better picture of potential tracks the operational/ensembles are showing of these AEWs:
Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#650 Postby Teban54 » Wed Aug 02, 2023 4:43 pm

USTropics wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z Euro ensembles are all over the place.

https://i.imgur.com/3YQ4JnH.jpg


It's probably due to uncertainty of ridge placement. Models seem to really struggle this time of year because the atmosphere is likely in or entering a transitional phase now as we approach peak season.


Just looking at the 12z ECMWF operational, ridge placement + evolution/propagation of these AEWs are causing the likely spread in ensembles. Enhanced monsoonal flow off of Africa and a transitioning UL environment is creating a sort of traffic jam for these waves, and operational models have a difficult time pegging which AEW (if any) will potentially dominate.

Here is an analysis of the current AEWs highlighted in separate colors:
https://i.imgur.com/8pffXuy.png

Superimpose this on the 12z ECMWF operational run out to 4 days:
https://i.imgur.com/Qt5auPL.gif

This gives a bit of a better picture of potential tracks the operational/ensembles are showing of these AEWs:
https://i.imgur.com/7vSjYbr.png

Do you think we may see a similar situation as 2020 where a supercharged WAM causes waves to have trouble consolidating in the MDR?
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#651 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:09 pm

Teban54 wrote:
USTropics wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
It's probably due to uncertainty of ridge placement. Models seem to really struggle this time of year because the atmosphere is likely in or entering a transitional phase now as we approach peak season.


Just looking at the 12z ECMWF operational, ridge placement + evolution/propagation of these AEWs are causing the likely spread in ensembles. Enhanced monsoonal flow off of Africa and a transitioning UL environment is creating a sort of traffic jam for these waves, and operational models have a difficult time pegging which AEW (if any) will potentially dominate.

Here is an analysis of the current AEWs highlighted in separate colors:
https://i.imgur.com/8pffXuy.png

Superimpose this on the 12z ECMWF operational run out to 4 days:
https://i.imgur.com/Qt5auPL.gif

This gives a bit of a better picture of potential tracks the operational/ensembles are showing of these AEWs:
https://i.imgur.com/7vSjYbr.png

Do you think we may see a similar situation as 2020 where a supercharged WAM causes waves to have trouble consolidating in the MDR?


There will be times the monsoonal flow dominates (particularly when CCKW/MJO passages provides favorable parameters), but for the most part the WAM has been average this season. There are stark differences from 2020, where anomalous rising motion was concentrated over this region in July:
Image

Compared to this season, anomalies have been focused towards the east in the WPAC/east of Australia:
Image

Compare rainfall rate for July of both those years as well:
Image

2023
Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#652 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Aug 02, 2023 5:21 pm

18z GFS actually shows a short-lived tropical storm forming from the tropical wave just off of Africa in 12-24 hours, which crosses the Atlantic and opens up into a wave.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#653 Postby Teban54 » Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:05 pm

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#654 Postby Jr0d » Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:43 am

Why is there no lemon(at the very least) for the wave @11N 26W ??

This could easily be classified as a depression based on Satellite obs in my amateur opinion!
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#655 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 03, 2023 6:37 am

Image
06z GFS
Image
I think we should be seeing one of these in the MDR today...
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Re: RE: Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#656 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:00 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/cLgHF8GW/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh144-336.gif
06z GFS
https://i.postimg.cc/SKtjd7Jm/Lemon.jpg
I think we should be seeing one of these in the MDR today...
Lets see what 57 says
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#657 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:25 am

Doubt we'll get anything with that system today, any models that do anything with it are beyond 7 days, and the ensembles have backed off quite a bit this morning. Subsidence is a huge damper here, strange to say in August, but it's what I think is happening with that wave (and what happened with 96L). If the thing persists for 24 hours or so, maybe then.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:39 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#658 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:35 am

I believe it’s a lil too early to get mentioned.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#659 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 03, 2023 8:01 am

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#660 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 03, 2023 8:16 am

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/cLgHF8GW/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh144-336.gif [/url]
06z GFS
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/SKtjd7Jm/Lemon.jpg [/url]
I think we should be seeing one of these in the MDR today...


Think we are a few days from that if it happens at all. Development chances are currently outside of the 5-7days window surely.
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