2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SouthFLTropics]

I said it the other day, if I was in Texas I’d be worried about a hurricane strike sometime in the next few weeks. Not impossible but unlikely that the 12z GFS pans out with a Florida hit from the South. If it was October I’d believe it. Combine that with the fact that Texas has been in drought conditions and are due for a bunch of rain to quench their thirst… Texas needs to keep a close eye to the Southeast.


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[Sambucol]

I said it the other day, if I was in Texas I’d be worried about a hurricane strike sometime in the next few weeks. Not impossible but unlikely that the 12z GFS pans out with a Florida hit from the South. If it was October I’d believe it. Combine that with the fact that Texas has been in drought conditions and are due for a bunch of rain to quench their thirst… Texas needs to keep a close eye to the Southeast.


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Watching from the upper Texas coast this one.

[IcyTundra]

Looking at the potential upper level pattern towards the middle to end of next week per the GEFS. A lot can change in that time period but it looks like there will be a fairly strong ridge over the CONUS with troughing up in New England and or just off the east coast. If there is a system in the WCAR at that time it might be far enough south that it doesn't feel that trough as much especially if it is weaker than what the 12Z GFS showed. Either way we should keep an eye on this area for development.

[lsuhurricane]

12z Euro still going with a Pacific crossover to the BOC. Interesting look.

[jfk08c]

GFS and Canadian operational showing a CAG spawned storm approximately 7 days out in roughly the same area. Starting to think these season estimates might not be too far off

[IcyTundra]

The Euro has had a couple runs now showing an EPAC to Atlantic crossover system not to mention there are some EPS members also showing this scenario. This would be a very rare event as I was only able to find 4 systems that have successfully completed the crossover from the EPAC to the Atlantic basin.

Here is a map of the 4 previous EPAC to Atlantic crossovers.

[lsuhurricane]

12z EPS

[Wampadawg]

I know this is not the correct thread but we always have the Euro crossover into the Gulf next week

[cycloneye]

I know this is not the correct thread but we always have the Euro crossover into the Gulf next week

Moved your post to the correct thread.

[chaser1]

Is it just me or does it seem as if the global models run-to-run inconsistancy is becoming increasingly bad? It seems like it were years ago (perhaps it was) but if/when the EURO began to sniff out tropical development, you just knew that what was being forecast at about 140 hr's was pretty solid. But now, run to run forecasts have seem to become so unbelievably random. And of course it stands to reason why greater "signal" might well be interpreted by focusing more on the ensembles. Ultimately my point has less to do with model accuracy but rather with the question whether our atmosphere is simply becoming more volitile and truly increasingly difficult to understand and forecast?

[Stormlover1970]

Is it just me or does it seem as if the global models run-to-run inconsistancy is becoming increasingly bad? It seems like it were years ago (perhaps it was) but if/when the EURO began to sniff out tropical development, you just knew that what was being forecast at about 140 hr's was pretty solid. But now, run to run forecasts have seem to become so unbelievably random. And of course it stands to reason why greater "signal" might well be interpreted by focusing more on the ensembles. Ultimately my point has less to do with model accuracy but rather with the question whether our atmosphere is simply becoming more volitile and truly increasingly difficult to understand and forecast?

I agree Mother Nature is angry and these unprecedented events will get worse over time

[Spacecoast]

Happy hour!
Is this even an identified wave?


At least the CAG is gone.

[SFLcane]

Happy hour!
Is this even an identified wave?
https://i.ibb.co/y0FJNvk/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh42-288.gif

At least the CAG is gone.

“ and” that interesting wave heading straight west will be gone next run. I have yet to see any real candidates for a developing tc just a bunch of scrambled eggs basin wide. 0 consistency on modeling thus far this season including the once reliable eps.

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't say the models are 'bad'. They're decent up to about 5 days or up to ~120 hours. After that skill decreases across nearly all guidance. Should be viewed for broad signals only. They are also sensitive to moving CCKW/westerly events. There are definitely waves for the models to latch onto, but the conditions crossing ~20N seems to be the barrier currently. The westerly burst just came and went.

[jlauderdal]

Happy hour!
Is this even an identified wave?


At least the CAG is gone.

Heading right at the shredder

[IcyTundra]

Happy hour!
Is this even an identified wave?
https://i.ibb.co/y0FJNvk/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh42-288.gif

At least the CAG is gone.

Heading right at the shredder

It somehow survives that and continues moving west into the gulf. These models are so bipolar and hard to trust at all.

[Blown Away]

Happy hour!
Is this even an identified wave?
https://i.ibb.co/y0FJNvk/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh42-288.gif

At least the CAG is gone.

Heading right at the shredder

That is top 5 18z GFS Happy Hour run of all time…

[lsuhurricane]

At least the CAG is gone.

Agree, it just doesnt happen that often once peak season rolls around. Wouldnt bet on its dissapearance from future GFS runs though. GEFS still has plenty of CAG based members into the GOM.

[gatorcane]

Happy hour!
Is this even an identified wave?
https://i.ibb.co/y0FJNvk/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh42-288.gif

At least the CAG is gone.

“ and” that interesting wave heading straight west will be gone next run. I have yet to see any real candidates for a developing tc just a bunch of scrambled eggs basin wide. 0 consistency on modeling thus far this season including the once reliable eps.

Agree the west runner solution looks highly suspicious. For one thing, the real development doesn’t happen until AFTER 200 hours which is the typical timeframe where the model will spin up a phantom. Secondly, the GEFS shows a quick recurve which looks more likely given the generally weaker than normal Azores ridging this summer so far, not to mention the ECMWF shows a similar recurve albeit without development:

[wxman57]

I 100% believe the 384 hr panel of the 18Z GFS. Has to be right THIS time!