2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[IcyTundra]

Let's hope the Bermuda high continues to be weak for the peak of the season.

[hurricanes1234]

Like clockwork!

Last week Sunday (Aug 13) vs today (Aug 20):

[zzzh]

And this is the GFS from a week ago. You can't really trust those models 7 days out, especially as peak season starts.

[jlauderdal]

Like clockwork!

Last week Sunday (Aug 13) vs today (Aug 20):

And plenty of season cancel posts the last few weeks.

[CyclonicFury]

I don't think 3 active TCs south of 20N at the same time, including one in the Caribbean, is very Niñoish

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/3KmmCDc.png
And this is the GFS from a week ago. You can't really trust those models 7 days out, especially as peak season starts.

There are no words or graphics that could possibly better drive home the point regarding reasonable inaccuracy of a 7 day global (operational) model forecast. It would be worthwhile to go back and take a similar look at what the ensembles forcast was at the time.

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/3KmmCDc.png
And this is the GFS from a week ago. You can't really trust those models 7 days out, especially as peak season starts.

There are no words or graphics that could possibly better drive home the point regarding reasonable inaccuracy of a 7 day global (operational) model forecast. It would be worthwhile to go back and take a similar look at what the ensembles forcast was at the time.

The Euro ensemble has been active for most of the runs since August 4th.

[IcyTundra]

https://i.imgur.com/3KmmCDc.png
And this is the GFS from a week ago. You can't really trust those models 7 days out, especially as peak season starts.

There are no words or graphics that could possibly better drive home the point regarding reasonable inaccuracy of a 7 day global (operational) model forecast. It would be worthwhile to go back and take a similar look at what the ensembles forcast was at the time.

12Z GEFS from last Sunday. EPS did a much better job of showing an increase in Atlantic activity.

[Cpv17]

https://i.imgur.com/3KmmCDc.png
And this is the GFS from a week ago. You can't really trust those models 7 days out, especially as peak season starts.

There are no words or graphics that could possibly better drive home the point regarding reasonable inaccuracy of a 7 day global (operational) model forecast. It would be worthwhile to go back and take a similar look at what the ensembles forcast was at the time.

12Z GEFS from last Sunday. EPS did a much better job of showing an increase in Atlantic activity.

https://i.ibb.co/ykYf7Rq/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-29.png

The GFS/GEFS loves the EPAC, which puts the clamps down on the Atlantic. It’s been that way for a while.

[chaser1]

I don't think 3 active TCs south of 20N at the same time, including one in the Caribbean, is very Niñoish

4 if you count the well organized disturbance in the far E. Atlantic. 5 if you count a potential depression/min storm in the W GOM. Would I call it Nino'ish if none achieved hurricane intensity because each one was sheared into oblivion within 48 hours though? Possibly. Not saying that will occur but upper level shear appears to be a factor with Emily and TD 6

[chaser1]

I don't think 3 active TCs south of 20N at the same time, including one in the Caribbean, is very Niñoish

4 if you count the well organized disturbance in the far E. Atlantic. 5 if you count a potential depression/min storm in the W GOM. Would I call it Nino'ish if none achieved hurricane intensity because each one was sheared into oblivion within 48 hours though? Possibly. Not saying that will occur but upper level shear appears to be a factor with Emily and TD 6

To be fair, the upper level conditions can change and the EURO 12Z 7-10 day forecast seems to hint that may occur. Maybe not so Nino'ish after all. Not quite yet anyway.

[Category5Kaiju]

*Franklin has entered the chat*

It's almost like August 20 is like an important day for the Atlantic, you know?

[tolakram]

August 17:
https://i.postimg.cc/wTvW4b9z/two-atl-7d0.png
It's very unlikely to see all 4 develop, and most probably won't get very strong. But still, looks like the switch had been flipped.

That or.........the mid-Atlantic ridge just violently spewed the entire world supply of Skittles

I don’t expect any of the areas to develop to be honest…Atlantic looks about as unfavorable as you can get this time of year with all the shear and dry air.

This aged well. Doesn't take much during peak season, but I think you would have been correct most other times of the year.

[SFLcane]

all the absurd talk in early Aug the season is over was ridiculous as always.

Philip k. is on the money.

[IcyTundra]

This was from a week ago today. Not criticizing the NHC this just goes to show how quickly things can change and that models can't be trusted 7 days out.

[SFLcane]

It’s going to get even more favorable…

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1693395026137731204

[Spacecoast]

https://i.imgur.com/3KmmCDc.png
And this is the GFS from a week ago. You can't really trust those models 7 days out, especially as peak season starts.

There are no words or graphics that could possibly better drive home the point regarding reasonable inaccuracy of a 7 day global (operational) model forecast. It would be worthwhile to go back and take a similar look at what the ensembles forcast was at the time.

The Euro ensemble has been active for most of the runs since August 4th.

Here's the EPS ensemble run from Aug 15th (couldn't find 7 days).
Five systems were forecast with ~>30% probability for today.
AL91, Franklin,Six, Emily, and AL92 can be seen, albeit bunched together more than observed.

....................................

Don't get me wrong, I think that 7 day forecasts (especially operational), have a very large (>500km) MoE, and subject to genesis errors.
However, the ensembles have given a roughly accurate picture of the range of possibilities.

[SFLcane]

all the absurd talk in early Aug the season is over was ridiculous as always.

Philip k. is on the money.

How is that for the downcasting? Unbelievable stat!

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1693452445471387959

[captainbarbossa19]

all the absurd talk in early Aug the season is over was ridiculous as always.

Philip k. is on the money.

How is that for the downcasting? Unbelievable stat!

https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1693452445471387959?s=61&t=RqDD5BwXxjs761Eobza7sw

Interesting to note, both of those years had 5 major hurricanes.

[hurricanes1234]

all the absurd talk in early Aug the season is over was ridiculous as always.

Philip k. is on the money.

How is that for the downcasting? Unbelievable stat!

https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1693452445471387959?s=61&t=RqDD5BwXxjs761Eobza7sw

Yup, and now Tropical Storm Gert has been added to the list of storms which were named in the last 24-30 hours.