2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1261 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Aug 20, 2023 1:57 pm

Let's hope the Bermuda high continues to be weak for the peak of the season.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1262 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 20, 2023 2:00 pm

Like clockwork! :lol:

Last week Sunday (Aug 13) vs today (Aug 20):

Image
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1263 Postby zzzh » Sun Aug 20, 2023 2:13 pm

Image
:uarrow: And this is the GFS from a week ago. You can't really trust those models 7 days out, especially as peak season starts.
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Re: RE: Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1264 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 20, 2023 2:15 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Like clockwork!

Last week Sunday (Aug 13) vs today (Aug 20):

Image
And plenty of season cancel posts the last few weeks.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1265 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:04 pm

I don't think 3 active TCs south of 20N at the same time, including one in the Caribbean, is very Niñoish :lol:
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1266 Postby chaser1 » Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:05 pm

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/3KmmCDc.png
:uarrow: And this is the GFS from a week ago. You can't really trust those models 7 days out, especially as peak season starts.


There are no words or graphics that could possibly better drive home the point regarding reasonable inaccuracy of a 7 day global (operational) model forecast. It would be worthwhile to go back and take a similar look at what the ensembles forcast was at the time.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1267 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:10 pm

chaser1 wrote:
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/3KmmCDc.png
:uarrow: And this is the GFS from a week ago. You can't really trust those models 7 days out, especially as peak season starts.


There are no words or graphics that could possibly better drive home the point regarding reasonable inaccuracy of a 7 day global (operational) model forecast. It would be worthwhile to go back and take a similar look at what the ensembles forcast was at the time.


The Euro ensemble has been active for most of the runs since August 4th.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1268 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:14 pm

chaser1 wrote:
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/3KmmCDc.png
:uarrow: And this is the GFS from a week ago. You can't really trust those models 7 days out, especially as peak season starts.


There are no words or graphics that could possibly better drive home the point regarding reasonable inaccuracy of a 7 day global (operational) model forecast. It would be worthwhile to go back and take a similar look at what the ensembles forcast was at the time.


12Z GEFS from last Sunday. EPS did a much better job of showing an increase in Atlantic activity.

Image
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1269 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:27 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/3KmmCDc.png
:uarrow: And this is the GFS from a week ago. You can't really trust those models 7 days out, especially as peak season starts.


There are no words or graphics that could possibly better drive home the point regarding reasonable inaccuracy of a 7 day global (operational) model forecast. It would be worthwhile to go back and take a similar look at what the ensembles forcast was at the time.


12Z GEFS from last Sunday. EPS did a much better job of showing an increase in Atlantic activity.

https://i.ibb.co/ykYf7Rq/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-29.png


The GFS/GEFS loves the EPAC, which puts the clamps down on the Atlantic. It’s been that way for a while.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1270 Postby chaser1 » Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:31 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:I don't think 3 active TCs south of 20N at the same time, including one in the Caribbean, is very Niñoish :lol:


4 if you count the well organized disturbance in the far E. Atlantic. 5 if you count a potential depression/min storm in the W GOM. Would I call it Nino'ish if none achieved hurricane intensity because each one was sheared into oblivion within 48 hours though? Possibly. Not saying that will occur but upper level shear appears to be a factor with Emily and TD 6
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1271 Postby chaser1 » Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:38 pm

chaser1 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I don't think 3 active TCs south of 20N at the same time, including one in the Caribbean, is very Niñoish :lol:


4 if you count the well organized disturbance in the far E. Atlantic. 5 if you count a potential depression/min storm in the W GOM. Would I call it Nino'ish if none achieved hurricane intensity because each one was sheared into oblivion within 48 hours though? Possibly. Not saying that will occur but upper level shear appears to be a factor with Emily and TD 6


To be fair, the upper level conditions can change and the EURO 12Z 7-10 day forecast seems to hint that may occur. Maybe not so Nino'ish after all. Not quite yet anyway.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1272 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:42 pm

*Franklin has entered the chat*

It's almost like August 20 is like an important day for the Atlantic, you know? :P
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1273 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:16 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Teban54 wrote:August 17:
https://i.postimg.cc/wTvW4b9z/two-atl-7d0.png
It's very unlikely to see all 4 develop, and most probably won't get very strong. But still, looks like the switch had been flipped.


That or.........the mid-Atlantic ridge just violently spewed the entire world supply of Skittles


I don’t expect any of the areas to develop to be honest…Atlantic looks about as unfavorable as you can get this time of year with all the shear and dry air.


This aged well. :lol: Doesn't take much during peak season, but I think you would have been correct most other times of the year.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1274 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:20 pm

all the absurd talk in early Aug the season is over was ridiculous as always.

Philip k. is on the money.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1275 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:33 pm

This was from a week ago today. Not criticizing the NHC this just goes to show how quickly things can change and that models can't be trusted 7 days out.

Image
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1276 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:58 pm

It’s going to get even more favorable…

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1693395026137731204


Last edited by SFLcane on Sun Aug 20, 2023 10:08 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1277 Postby Spacecoast » Sun Aug 20, 2023 7:37 pm

LarryWx wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/3KmmCDc.png
:uarrow: And this is the GFS from a week ago. You can't really trust those models 7 days out, especially as peak season starts.


There are no words or graphics that could possibly better drive home the point regarding reasonable inaccuracy of a 7 day global (operational) model forecast. It would be worthwhile to go back and take a similar look at what the ensembles forcast was at the time.


The Euro ensemble has been active for most of the runs since August 4th.


Here's the EPS ensemble run from Aug 15th (couldn't find 7 days).
Five systems were forecast with ~>30% probability for today.
AL91, Franklin,Six, Emily, and AL92 can be seen, albeit bunched together more than observed.
Image
....................................Image

Don't get me wrong, I think that 7 day forecasts (especially operational), have a very large (>500km) MoE, and subject to genesis errors.
However, the ensembles have given a roughly accurate picture of the range of possibilities.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1278 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:49 pm

SFLcane wrote:all the absurd talk in early Aug the season is over was ridiculous as always.

Philip k. is on the money.


How is that for the downcasting? Unbelievable stat!

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1693452445471387959


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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1279 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sun Aug 20, 2023 10:56 pm

SFLcane wrote:
SFLcane wrote:all the absurd talk in early Aug the season is over was ridiculous as always.

Philip k. is on the money.


How is that for the downcasting? Unbelievable stat!

https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1693452445471387959?s=61&t=RqDD5BwXxjs761Eobza7sw


Interesting to note, both of those years had 5 major hurricanes.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#1280 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 20, 2023 11:28 pm

SFLcane wrote:
SFLcane wrote:all the absurd talk in early Aug the season is over was ridiculous as always.

Philip k. is on the money.


How is that for the downcasting? Unbelievable stat!

https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1693452445471387959?s=61&t=RqDD5BwXxjs761Eobza7sw


Yup, and now Tropical Storm Gert has been added to the list of storms which were named in the last 24-30 hours. :lol:
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