2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TomballEd]

Euro developing a TC over land, that's new.

https://i.imgur.com/L4pmmZv.gif

Andy Hazelton has posted on Twitter (X) about current Euro and ensembles not weakening low level vortices moving over land and noted the occasional cyclone over Africa. He seems to feel the Pacific MT breaking off a piece that crosses C. America to emerge in the SW aribbean thing is unlucky. PhD met at Hurricane Research Division.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro developing a TC over land, that's new.

https://i.imgur.com/L4pmmZv.gif

Now THAT'S comedy.

[Ianswfl]

Introducing your 12z EPS run.

https://i.ibb.co/S522Ghm/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Gulf-of-Mexico-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-3.gif

Looks like the big bend will be ground zero. IMO it will shift east some. Already that area of spin and disturbed weather seems a bit more east. Whatever becomes of it will be fluid. we could have hurricane watches for Key west by Sunday night.

[Stratton23]

Their is no guarantee this is headed to florida and thats evident in the euro ensembles , this could just as easily fizzle out over central america, or get trapped in the BOC, the steering pattern is complicated, lots of variables in play

[BobHarlem]

[Hurricaneman]

Introducing your 12z EPS run.

https://i.ibb.co/S522Ghm/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Gulf-of-Mexico-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-3.gif

Looks like the big bend will be ground zero. IMO it will shift east some. Already that area of spin and disturbed weather seems a bit more east. Whatever becomes of it will be fluid. we could have hurricane watches for Key west by Sunday night.

Yep, seems to be east of Nicaragua, need to watch that area for development the next few days

[cycloneye]

A thread has been made for the area in NW Caribbean. The model runs for that can be posted there.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 4#p3035234

[REDHurricane]

00z ICON is clearly having some fun

[Blown Away]

12z ICON... Brings a TS near Sarasota and has a hurricane moving into NE Caribbean.

[Stratton23]

Might have to keep an eye out on the front that will be steering this system to florida, models showing the front getting out over the gulf of mexico, with the 00z CMC starting to hint at a weak area of low pressure trying to form in the BOC, just something to causally watch, definitely cannot trust even a weak front over the gulf

[IcyTundra]

Might have to keep an eye out on the front that will be steering this system to florida, models showing the front getting out over the gulf of mexico, with the 00z CMC starting to hint at a weak area of low pressure trying to form in the BOC, just something to causally watch, definitely cannot trust even a weak front over the gulf

Looks like the GFS has a front draping down into the gulf as well.

[IcyTundra]

This is the GFS we all know and love. 00Z develops 3 systems not including the area in the WCAR right now.

[Teban54]

384 hr 0z GFS wants September 10, 2023 to be like September 10, 2017

It even wants them to get the I, J and K names in the exact same order as their 2017 versions too, since GFS still refuses to develop the Caribbean system.

[jlauderdal]

384 hr 0z GFS wants September 10, 2023 to be like September 10, 2017

It even wants them to get the I, J and K names in the exact same order as their 2017 versions too, since GFS still refuses to develop the Caribbean system.
https://i.postimg.cc/QdJzN79T/image.png

The same gfs that cant sniff out the yucatan system a few days in advance

[Teban54]

GFS, ECMWF and CMC are in general agreement of a wave leaving Africa on August 29 trying to develop, with some (if not most) runs taking a W to WSW turn past the CV islands.

Eerily similar to another storm at the same time 6 years ago. Let's hope the similarity ends there.

[ScottNAtlanta]

384 hr 0z GFS wants September 10, 2023 to be like September 10, 2017

It even wants them to get the I, J and K names in the exact same order as their 2017 versions too, since GFS still refuses to develop the Caribbean system.
https://i.postimg.cc/QdJzN79T/image.png

The same gfs that cant sniff out the yucatan system a few days in advance

Poor GFS...damned when it does, and damned when it doesn't...

[weeniepatrol]

Globals hinting at this wave along 40W amplifying a little. Maybe something else to watch?

GFS:

EC:

[NotSparta]

Globals hinting at this wave along 40W amplifying a little. Maybe something else to watch?

https://imgur.com/iNgJy1C

GFS:

https://i.imgur.com/cjivfYG.png

https://imgur.com/k1bdzfx
EC:

https://i.imgur.com/efq1K0H.png

https://imgur.com/H1tgBrT

If it can avoid land it probably has a shot at doing something in the Caribbean. Conditions being modeled there in ~5 days with a wave moving in argue for the possibility of something. Low probability but it is peak season

[ElectricStorm]

6z GFS gets to 1001mb with that wave in the BOC. Will be interesting to watch over the next several days. Could be a sleeper

[IcyTundra]

Going have to keep an eye on that wave moving into the Caribbean by the middle of next week. Operational GFS has been trending stronger with it.