ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
It’s going to be affected by westerly shear and have a tilted presentation. At least for a couple days. Doing a good job though organizing so far.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Agreed coming together quickly and models might have to play catch-up. There even looks to be banding on the SE side forming.
What does a stronger storm in the short-term mean for track implications?

What does a stronger storm in the short-term mean for track implications?

Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 26, 2023 10:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Impressive radar presentation.
https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1695459295498743984
Not hard at all to tell if the circulation is closed. Everything from surface observations to satellite shows it’s closed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Does not appear at least from Sat views that the center is over the eastern tip of the Yucatan as shown by a map earlier on.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
MetroMike wrote:Does not appear at least from Sat views that the center is over the eastern tip of the Yucatan as shown by a map earlier on.
Looking at the radar from the previous post, it still looks like it is over water still and may stay there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
ASSUMING continued organization throughout the day and if we begin to see improved banding, then I would guess the 2:00pm TWO will heighten the message that a TD may be forming, and mention recon to investigate the disturbance later this eve.
I think that the earliest that any upgrade would occur might be an 8:00pm or 9:00pm Special Advisory following data from recon. Thereafter, PTS or Storm Watches perhaps commensing early tomorrow.
I think that the earliest that any upgrade would occur might be an 8:00pm or 9:00pm Special Advisory following data from recon. Thereafter, PTS or Storm Watches perhaps commensing early tomorrow.
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:What does a stronger storm in the short-term mean for track implications?
https://i.postimg.cc/xCJhQNRM/goes16-vis-93-L-202308261417.gif
Usually more N.

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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Was just reading the discussion from the local MET office here in Atlanta, and in their long term forecast which begins Monday they say there will be 2 fronts trying to push through here. One will come Sunday but stall just south of Atlanta and one will push through on Wednesday. The second front is the one that could possibly affect 93L, but that wont happen until Wed. That will give this quite a bit of time to strengthen before any potential shear makes an appearance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:Agreed coming together quickly and models might have to play catch-up. There even looks to be banding on the SE side forming.
What does a stronger storm in the short-term mean for track implications?
https://i.postimg.cc/xCJhQNRM/goes16-vis-93-L-202308261417.gif
Great question. I was wondering the same thing
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
A stronger storm is higher winds over the Loop Current which pulls more heat out of the water.
A positive feedback mechanism for strengthening.
Very notable canes went down this path. We all know their names.
A positive feedback mechanism for strengthening.
Very notable canes went down this path. We all know their names.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
I think they may issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook before 2 PM at this rate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Was just reading the discussion from the local MET office here in Atlanta, and in their long term forecast which begins Monday they say there will be 2 fronts trying to push through here. One will come Sunday but stall just south of Atlanta and one will push through on Wednesday. The second front is the one that could possibly affect 93L, but that wont happen until Wed. That will give this quite a bit of time to strengthen before any potential shear makes an appearance.
That second front may also imply an increased eastward nudge in storm track as we approach that point in the track cycle
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:I think they may issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook before 2 PM at this rate.
The way this has evolved, i'll be a long 12 hour satellite loop will be impressive to look at
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion Update= Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued
A weakening MCSJavlin wrote:Something coming together @ 86.5ishW/ 21.5N??
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis
What just came out of the Big bend area this morning pushing far into the GOM?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor
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- toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Peak season magic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
MississippiWx wrote:cycloneye wrote:Impressive radar presentation.
https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1695459295498743984
Not hard at all to tell if the circulation is closed. Everything from surface observations to satellite shows it’s closed.
No doubt there's tons of low level west winds feeding in. Only thing i question is how tight or broad is the LLC, max sustained winds, and how closely co-located with an obviously vigorous MLC.
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Andy D
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