ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#621 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:15 am

Image

@19.9N/85.8W… Appears to be moving faster to the E than 2 mph. JMHO
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#622 Postby Mob1 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:15 am

One thing to note is that models shifted Franklin quite a bit west, so if TD10 shift east they'll probably be close enough to each other to limit ventilation and subsequently put a cap on TD10's potential.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#623 Postby typhoonty » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:15 am

NDG wrote:I can't believe they didn't wait for the recon info before the Advisory at 11 AM, crazy.

They write the discussions in advance to get out prior to 11AM posted time. If they incorporated the recon data in they would've delayed it past the "deadline" I expect them to issue a tropical cyclone update shortly.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#624 Postby Woofde » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:16 am

I believe we have Idalia!
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#625 Postby Subtrop » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:17 am

WTNT65 KNHC 271513
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1015 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia.
The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#626 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:18 am

Finally we have TS Idalia!
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#627 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:19 am

typhoonty wrote:
NDG wrote:I can't believe they didn't wait for the recon info before the Advisory at 11 AM, crazy.

They write the discussions in advance to get out prior to 11AM posted time. If they incorporated the recon data in they would've delayed it past the "deadline" I expect them to issue a tropical cyclone update shortly.


That definitely makes sense.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#628 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:21 am

Good thing the recon came in with a SW-NE approach otherwise nobody would had thought it was going to find TS force winds in the SW quadrant while sampling the NE quadrant. :D
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#629 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:22 am

Looks like the problem is a dry slot to the north of the CoC.
Its starting to fill in with cumulus though.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#630 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:29 am

Wouldn’t get fixated on short term movement for now. The circulation is basically a tight swirl broadly rotating around a broader gyre. Movement will become more important in a day or so when it’s more consolidated
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#631 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:30 am

Owasso wrote:We have Idalia

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia.
The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


Image

Still moving E. 10am says Idalia crosses 85W in 60 hours.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#632 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:33 am

Should move east'ish for another 6 hours or so before turning NE then north.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#633 Postby jasons2k » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:33 am

I posted this in the Models thread last night...I'm concerned about the Tampa Bay area. Called my relatives yesterday and told them to get ready. There's not going to be a long preparation window with this one. Everyone on the Florida Gulf Coast needs to watch this one because a small shift in track will make a big difference in the landfall location because of the trajectory almost parallel to the west coast.

Folks in the entire Tampa Bay metro area need to get prepared NOW for an approaching hurricane. Also, as a reminder....always plan for a storm AT LEAST one category stronger than the forecast.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#634 Postby Chemmers » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:36 am

Looks like the convection on the North side is starting to fill in
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#635 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:40 am

Chemmers wrote:Looks like the convection on the North side is starting to fill in


Plenty of recon to keep track of any strengthening that goes on today. As long as their comms keep working ( knock on wood).
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#636 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:40 am

Getting to be the time of day when solar heating puts a lid on intensification.
May see more action around sunset.
Going to be a lot of popups over the Yucatan and Cuba late afternoon which will feed in moisture overnight
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#637 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:43 am

GCANE wrote:Getting to be the time of day when solar heating puts a lid on intensification.
May see more action around sunset.
Going to be a lot of popups over the Yucatan and Cuba late afternoon which will feed in moisture overnight
What is CAPE looking like today?
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#638 Postby norva13x » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:43 am

Nope. Not allowed. Florida is closed Idalia please stay away, sorry.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#639 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:58 am

Lowest Extrapolated Pressure of 995.7 mb.

Image
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png

I have never seen a 40-mph storm with a pressure of less than 1000 mb.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#640 Postby norva13x » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:59 am

Iceresistance wrote:Lowest Extrapolated Pressure of 995.7 mb.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png

I have never seen a 40-mph storm with a pressure of less than 1000 mb.


If accurate, that's........ really scary
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