ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

@19.9N/85.8W… Appears to be moving faster to the E than 2 mph. JMHO

[Mob1]

One thing to note is that models shifted Franklin quite a bit west, so if TD10 shift east they'll probably be close enough to each other to limit ventilation and subsequently put a cap on TD10's potential.

[typhoonty]

I can't believe they didn't wait for the recon info before the Advisory at 11 AM, crazy.

They write the discussions in advance to get out prior to 11AM posted time. If they incorporated the recon data in they would've delayed it past the "deadline" I expect them to issue a tropical cyclone update shortly.

[Woofde]

I believe we have Idalia!

[Subtrop]

WTNT65 KNHC 271513
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1015 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia.
The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Hurricane2022]

Finally we have TS Idalia!

[NDG]

I can't believe they didn't wait for the recon info before the Advisory at 11 AM, crazy.

They write the discussions in advance to get out prior to 11AM posted time. If they incorporated the recon data in they would've delayed it past the "deadline" I expect them to issue a tropical cyclone update shortly.

That definitely makes sense.

[NDG]

Good thing the recon came in with a SW-NE approach otherwise nobody would had thought it was going to find TS force winds in the SW quadrant while sampling the NE quadrant.

[GCANE]

Looks like the problem is a dry slot to the north of the CoC.
Its starting to fill in with cumulus though.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wouldn’t get fixated on short term movement for now. The circulation is basically a tight swirl broadly rotating around a broader gyre. Movement will become more important in a day or so when it’s more consolidated

[Blown Away]

We have Idalia

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia.
The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

Still moving E. 10am says Idalia crosses 85W in 60 hours.

[tolakram]

Should move east'ish for another 6 hours or so before turning NE then north.

[jasons2k]

I posted this in the Models thread last night...I'm concerned about the Tampa Bay area. Called my relatives yesterday and told them to get ready. There's not going to be a long preparation window with this one. Everyone on the Florida Gulf Coast needs to watch this one because a small shift in track will make a big difference in the landfall location because of the trajectory almost parallel to the west coast.

Folks in the entire Tampa Bay metro area need to get prepared NOW for an approaching hurricane. Also, as a reminder....always plan for a storm AT LEAST one category stronger than the forecast.

[Chemmers]

Looks like the convection on the North side is starting to fill in

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks like the convection on the North side is starting to fill in

Plenty of recon to keep track of any strengthening that goes on today. As long as their comms keep working ( knock on wood).

[GCANE]

Getting to be the time of day when solar heating puts a lid on intensification.
May see more action around sunset.
Going to be a lot of popups over the Yucatan and Cuba late afternoon which will feed in moisture overnight

[jlauderdal]

Getting to be the time of day when solar heating puts a lid on intensification.
May see more action around sunset.
Going to be a lot of popups over the Yucatan and Cuba late afternoon which will feed in moisture overnight

What is CAPE looking like today?

[norva13x]

Nope. Not allowed. Florida is closed Idalia please stay away, sorry.

[Iceresistance]

Lowest Extrapolated Pressure of 995.7 mb.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png

I have never seen a 40-mph storm with a pressure of less than 1000 mb.

[norva13x]

Lowest Extrapolated Pressure of 995.7 mb.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgQev.png

I have never seen a 40-mph storm with a pressure of less than 1000 mb.

If accurate, that's........ really scary